Storms aren't helping Florida's driest counties. See latest count of wildfires
Monday morning, April 7, there were 54 wildfires burning in Florida, up from 49 April 4, according to the Florida Forest Service, affecting 1,333 acres.
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The largest fire is the Wiggins Fire, burning 250 acres in Collier County. The fire is 95% contained.
The average statewide drought index increased to 356 Sunday, up sharply from 313 last week. The driest conditions continue across South and Southwest Florida.
Highlights of some of the wildfires burning in Florida:
Wiggins Fire: Collier County. 250 acres. 95% contained.
Pretty Pine Fire: Polk County. 125 acres. 90% contained.
Walker Road Fire: Polk County. 60 acres. 70% contained.
Packinghouse Road Fire: Hillsborough County. 55 acres. 80% contained.
Tram Road Fire. Bay County. 47 acres. 80% contained.
Alcoy Road Fire: Duval County. 40 acres. 75% contained.
"Wildfire names are generally based on the geographic location of the fire or a nearby geographic feature," according to Tim Brown, communications manager with the Florida Forest Service in an email.
"For example, the '344 Fire' was due to its location near 344 Street."
There is some rain falling in Florida today, April 7, as storms move across the Panhandle ahead of a cold front.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected across North Florida Monday and the northern and central peninsula Monday night, according to the Florida Department of Emergency Management.
Activity will weaken but persist across Central and South Florida on Tuesday, with a 45% to 75% chance of rain.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may persist across South Florida and the Keys Tuesday night.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida jumped to 356 Sunday, up 11 points from Saturday, April 5. The drought index uses a scale from 0, which is very wet, to 800, which is very dry.
As of Sunday, April 6, there were 13 Florida counties with a mean Keetch-Byram Drought Index over 500, which means drought or increased fire danger.
Broward: 585
Charlotte: 555
Collier: 592
DeSoto: 511
Glades: 541
Hardee: 550
Hendry: 584
Lake: 523
Lee: 591
Manatee: 547
Miami-Dade: 543
Monroe: 541
Palm Beach: 572
Sarasota: 544
Sumter: 507
Another 14 of Florida's 67 counties have index numbers in the 400s.
According to the Florida Forest Service, burn bans are in place for the following counties:
Charlotte
Collier
Glades
Hendry
Highlands
Lake
Sarasota
The open burning of yard debris is always prohibited in these counties:
Duval
Hillsborough
Orange
Pinellas
Western Panhandle, Pensacola: The cold front has cleared all but the far southeastern counties by 4 a.m. CDT. No more flash flood warnings remain in effect. About another quarter inch of rain possible. Highs in the low to mid 60s. Lows tonight low to upper 40s.
Panhandle, Tallahassee: Isolated strong to severe storms. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes remain the primary threats. Localized flash flooding possible. Highs in mid 70s to low 80s. Lows in the mid 40s to low 50.
North Florida, Jacksonville: Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms ahead of a cold front. Highs around 90. Lows in upper 50s.
East central Florida: Near record heat expected again today, with breezy/windy conditions forecast. Showers and isolated storms will be possible into tonight into Tuesday. Highs around 90. Lows in mid 60s.
South Florida: Thunderstorms possible Tuesday. Highs in upper 80s to low 90s. Lows in mid 70s.
Southwest Florida: Severe weather could include isolated tornadoes, heavy rain, damaging winds. Highs around 80. Lows in upper 60s.
We will continue to update our weather coverage as conditions warrant. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here.
This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: Florida brush fires increase as storms skip counties under drought
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02-07-2025
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Chances increase slightly for tropical development over Fourth of July. See Florida impact
Chances for something tropical developing over or near Florida in the coming days increased while you slept. There's now a 40% chance for a tropical or subtropical depression forming over the next seven days if an area of low pressure develops in the southeastern Atlantic or Gulf by the holiday weekend, according to the National Hurricane Center. ➤ Track all active storms ➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location Regardless of development, the system could bring up to 6 inches of rain to some portions of Florida through the Fourth of July weekend, according to the National Weather Service. The next named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will be Chantal. In the eastern Pacific, Hurricane Flossie — now a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds — is moving west-northwest away from land. Weakening is expected by the end of the day, July2. Here's the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 a.m. July 2: An area of low pressure could develop near the southeast U.S. Atlantic or Gulf coasts by this weekend along a weakening frontal boundary, according to the National Hurricane Center. Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slow development, but a tropical or subtropical depression could form in this region over the weekend or early next week while the system moves little. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of the southeast U.S., particularly across the west-central Florida coast. Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days: medium, 40 percent. "Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of the southeast U.S., particularly across West-Central Florida," the Florida Department of Emergency Management said. "Those heading to the beaches for the holiday weekend from northern Florida and the Alabama and Mississippi panhandles to the Carolinas are urged to monitor the forecast, as there may be rough surf and rip currents and perhaps gusty winds should a tropical depression or storm develop," said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, adding, "We feel the development window is from around July 4 to early next week." Factors helping prevent tropical development include wind shear and dry air, including Saharan dust moving across the Atlantic and into the Gulf. Hurricane Flossie is about 315 miles south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph, with higher gusts. Flossie is a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is forecast this morning, with rapid weakening expected to begin by the end of the day. All coastal watches and warnings have been discontinued. This forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time. This forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time. The hatched areas on the National Hurricane Center's tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome. The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop, with yellow being low, orange medium, and red high. The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception. "If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said. Named storms historically develop close to the U.S. in July, especially in the Gulf and off the Atlantic coast between Florida and the Carolinas. Later in the season, tropical storms and hurricanes develop out of tropical waves moving off the coast of Africa. Elsewhere in the tropics, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring five tropical waves, including two in the Caribbean: Tropical wave 1: A tropical wave has an axis along 23W in the eastern Atlantic, from the Cabo Verde Islands southward, moving west at around 11 mph. Tropical wave 2: Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 39W, south of 14N, moving westward around 17 mph. Tropical wave 3: A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 48W, south of 16N, moving westward at 11 to 17 mph. Tropical wave 4: An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 66W, south of 16N, moving westward at around 11 mph. Tropical wave 5: A tropical wave that had been in the western Caribbean is now crossing Central America into the eastern Pacific Ocean along 86W. It is moving west at 11 to 17 mph. Florida weather forecast for July 2, 2025 Pensacola, western Panhandle: The best chance for rain today will be along and east of I-65. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Tallahassee, central Panhandle: Wet pattern continues into Wednesday. We're also watching the potential development of a weak low next week, but main concerns with this feature still revolve around heavy rain. Some areas could see an estimated 4 to 6 inches of rain through the holiday weekend, with localized higher amounts possible. High of 89. Jacksonville, North/Northeast Florida: Regardless of tropical cyclone development, flooding rainfall risk increases Friday through the holiday weekend. "We are currently on a 26-day streak of the Jacksonville International Airport measuring a maximum temperature of 90 degrees" or warmer," the National Weather Service Jacksonville posted on X. "This ranks as the 20th longest stretch on record for JAX. This streak will likely continue this week." Daytona Beach to Stuart, East/Central Florida: Some morning sun then increasing clouds with scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms developing. Highs range from 88 in Daytona Beach to 87 in Stuart. West Palm Beach to Naples, South/Southwest Florida: Increasing showers and thunderstorms today may result in localized flooding, especially over east coast metro areas. Expect another warm day with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Fort Myers to Sarasota, West/Southwest Florida: "There remains high uncertainty with this (system with tropical potential) feature, but the main impact is expected to be heavy rainfall locally into the weekend." Highs today range from 89 in Fort Myers to 86 in Sarasota. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said. The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories. The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center. Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include: Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it's in the tropical Atlantic basin. To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a "rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation," NOAA sadi. Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated: : for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific. : for storms in the Northwest Pacific. : for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean. We will update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here. This story was updated to add new information. This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: Hurricane center tracks Florida rain impact, tropical development
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NHC still watching system near Florida. Sarasota, Bradenton impact for July 4th weekend
The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor a disturbance expected to stall off the southeast coast of the U.S. late this week, which could affect your Fourth of July weekend in Sarasota and Manatee County. As of 2 p.m. on Jul. 1, chances for development over the next seven days are 30%. Warm waters along the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic coasts could provide the fuel necessary for development of a tropical depression or tropical storm around or just after July 4, AccuWeather said. ➤ Track all active storms ➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location Regardless of tropical cyclone development, showers and thunderstorms could spoil your holiday weekend at the beach. The next named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will be Chantal. "Development may be a bit more likely on the Gulf side, as opposed to the Atlantic side of Florida, but at this point the entire zone is being watched," DaSilva said, "At this time we feel the development window is from around July 4 to early next week." "A frontal boundary is expected to stall and weaken off the southeast U.S. coast late this week," the National Hurricane Center said at 2 p.m. "An area of low pressure could develop from the weakening front by the weekend over the Atlantic waters off the southeast U.S., over Florida, or over the eastern Gulf. "Some gradual tropical or subtropical development could occur thereafter as the low drifts and moves little. "Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of the southeast U.S., particularly across the west-central Florida coast." Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days: low, 30 percent. 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"Those heading to the beaches for the holiday weekend from northern Florida and the Alabama and Mississippi panhandles to the Carolinas are urged to monitor the forecast, as there may be rough surf and rip currents and perhaps gusty winds should a tropical depression or storm develop," DaSilva said. Factors helping prevent tropical development include wind shear and dry air, including Saharan dust moving across the Atlantic and into the Gulf. The Fourth of July holiday weekend forecast for Sarasota and Manatee counties from the National Weather Service in Miami as of July 1, 2025: Sarasota County July 4: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Light southwest wind increasing to 5 to 9 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Friday night, scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 30%. July 5: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Partly sunny, with a high near 89. Light and variable wind becoming south southwest 5 to 7 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Saturday night, scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. Chance of precipitation is 40%. July 6: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Sunday night, showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly cloudy, with a low around 76. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Manatee County July 4: Day Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. Southwest wind 5 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Friday night, scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 2 am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74. West southwest wind around 6 mph becoming light and variable in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 30%. July 5: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 pm. High near 91. East wind 5 to 7 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Saturday night, showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 8 pm, then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 8 pm. Low around 74. Chance of precipitation is 80%. July 6: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Sunday night, showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. Chance of precipitation is 60%. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said. The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories. The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center. Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include: Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it's in the tropical Atlantic basin. To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a "rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation," NOAA sadi. Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated: : for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific. : for storms in the Northwest Pacific. : for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean. Download your local site's app to stay connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here. This article originally appeared on Sarasota Herald-Tribune: NOAA tracking system near Florida: Sarasota July 4th weekend forecast
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01-07-2025
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NOAA hurricane center watching system near Florida. How it could impact July 4th plans
The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor a disturbance expected to stall over or near Florida late this week, which could affect your Fourth of July weekend. By 8 a.m., chances for development over the next seven days had increased slightly, to 30%. Warm waters along the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic coasts could provide the fuel necessary for development of a tropical depression or tropical storm around or just after July 4, AccuWeather said. ➤ Track all active storms ➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location The next named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will be Chantal. In the eastern Pacific, Hurricane Flossie continues to strengthen off the coast of southwest Mexico. "Steady to rapid strengthening" is forecast to continue, and Flossie could be a strong Category 2 hurricane — very close to Category 2 strength — within 24 hours. Here's the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 a.m. July 1: "Development may be a bit more likely on the Gulf side, as opposed to the Atlantic side of Florida, but at this point the entire zone is being watched," DaSilva said, "At this time we feel the development window is from around July 4 to early next week." A frontal boundary is expected to stall and weaken off the southeast U.S. coast late this week. An area of low pressure could develop from the weakening front by the weekend over the Atlantic waters off the southeast U.S., over Florida, or over the eastern Gulf, the National Hurricane Center said. "Some gradual tropical or subtropical development could occur thereafter as the low drifts and moves little. Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days: low, 30 percent. "A cold front will dive off the coast late this week, and it may act as a catalyst for development either in the eastern Gulf or off the Southeast coast," said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert. "Wind shear, which can inhibit development, is expected to be fairly low and ocean water temperatures in the Gulf are above average which can aid in development in the outlooked area." "Should clustering of thunderstorms and lowering pressure develop enough spin around a center with winds of 35-38 mph, a tropical depression may be born. Waters are warm enough (80 or higher) to allow and sustain tropical development," according to AccuWeather. "This system poses no direct threat to Florida over the next 5-7 days; however, this system could bring locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds and an increased rip current risk along the Gulf or Atlantic Coast later this week and will continue to be monitored closely," the Florida Department of Emergency Management said. "Those heading to the beaches for the holiday weekend from northern Florida and the Alabama and Mississippi panhandles to the Carolinas are urged to monitor the forecast, as there may be rough surf and rip currents and perhaps gusty winds should a tropical depression or storm develop," DaSilva said. Factors helping prevent tropical development include wind shear and dry air, including Saharan dust moving across the Atlantic and into the Gulf. Hurricane Flossie continues to strengthen off the coast of southwest Mexico, according to the 6 a.m. CST advisory from the National Hurricane Center. On the forecast track, Flossie should move farther away from southwestern Mexico Tuesday, July 1. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 95 mph, with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, with weakening starting by late Wednesday, July 2. The National Hurricane Center predicted maximum sustained winds could reach 110 mph within 24 hours. A Category 3 hurricane has maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph. This forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time. This forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time. The hatched areas on the National Hurricane Center's tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome. The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop, with yellow being low, orange medium, and red high. The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception. "If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said. Named storms historically develop close to the U.S. in July, especially in the Gulf and off the Atlantic coast between Florida and the Carolinas. Later in the season, tropical storms and hurricanes develop out of tropical waves moving off the coast of Africa. Elsewhere in the tropics, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring four tropical waves, including two in the Caribbean: Tropical wave 1: An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 31W, south of 16N, moving westward at around 17 mph. Tropical wave 2: A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 42W, south of 16N, moving westward at around 17 mph. Tropical wave 3: An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 63W, south of 14N, moving westward around 11 mph. Tropical wave 4: A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 80W, south of 19N, moving westward at around 17 mph. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said. The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories. The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center. Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include: Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it's in the tropical Atlantic basin. To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a "rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation," NOAA sadi. Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated: : for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific. : for storms in the Northwest Pacific. : for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean. We will update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here. This story was updated to add new information. This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: Hurricane center tracking disturbance near Florida: July 4th outlook
