logo

Markets await US CPI for tariff impact clues amid Trump's trade threats: Peter Cardillo

Economic Times5 days ago
"The higher end of the tariff scale is just a threat and we just have to wait and see whether or not they will be imposed or whether or not they will have an inflationary impact. But again, they are just negotiating starts and that most nations will work out a deal and whether or not we get 10% or 6% in tariff implementation of tariffs is yet to be seen but some sort of a deal will be worked out. I do not think that Trump will go ahead with these steep tariffs," says Peter Cardillo, Spartan Capital Securities.
ADVERTISEMENT US President Donald Trump yesterday made some bold comments surrounding Russia. One, he said he is disappointed with Russian President Putin. And he also said that if they do not come out with a deal over the next 50 days, then severe tariffs could be imposed. How do you read this and do you expect the dust to settle down over a period of time?
Peter Cardillo: Well, obviously President Trump is imposing steep tariffs, not only is he indicating to Russia that if a deal is not made within 50 days that tariffs will be 100%, but he is doing it with most other countries that letters were sent out. It is just a bargaining point. And of course, in the case of Russia, it might be a little bit different because we are not talking about tariffs on imported goods, but rather on the war factor.
So, it is a question now whether or not Russia begins to think seriously on ending the war in Ukraine. And so, the more pressure that Trump puts on Russia along with other European nations, the greater the chances of some sort of a truce may happen. And let us not forget something very important that the Russian economy is in dire straits, so he really cannot afford steep tariffs nor can he afford more sanctions. So, there is a possibility that some sort of a truce could happen within the next 50 days.
I wanted to understand your view on the tariffs that will be imposed starting August 1st on EU and Mexico as well. You did previously say that tariffs at these levels are unlikely to be implemented, but that August one deadline is looming. So, do you believe a resolution will be out before that or do you think these tariffs will be implemented at these levels?
Peter Cardillo: Well, again, if I heard the question correctly because the audio is not that great, the situation with Mexico is like every other nation. However, Mexico did say that they have a contra plan and, of course, we have to see what this contra plan is all about and whether or not the administration accepts it. I believe there will be a deal with Mexico along with other major nations. It is just a question of what type of a deal. Do I believe that these steep tariffs that President Trump suggests that will be implemented on August 1st go through? I do not think so. They will be much less and then, of course there is the question of whether or not they will be met with a surge in tariff inflation. In fact, today we will be getting some inflation news that is the CPI and there could very well be some hint of whether or not inflation is beginning to emerge from some of the tariffs.
ADVERTISEMENT
But he has also made some comments on tariff on Russia and secondary tariffs on all those countries who buy Russian energy. Do you think that this is merely a threat and Trump is using it as a negotiating tool or perhaps could it translate into something concrete?
Peter Cardillo: Well, it is a combination. It is a negotiating tool and it is also a way of Trump trying to bring together this trade war and lessen its burdens and this burden that could have on the global economy. So far, we have not seen any evidence of inflation popping up anywhere. We saw numbers out of India which suggest inflation continues to move lower and it all depends how steep these tariffs are going to be.
So, so far, the higher end of the tariff scale is just a threat and we just have to wait and see whether or not they will be imposed or whether or not they will have an inflationary impact. But again, they are just negotiating starts and that most nations will work out a deal and whether or not we get 10% or 6% in tariff implementation of tariffs is yet to be seen but some sort of a deal will be worked out. I do not think that Trump will go ahead with these steep tariffs.
(You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

Crypto sector breaches $4 trillion in market value during pivotal week
Crypto sector breaches $4 trillion in market value during pivotal week

Economic Times

time15 minutes ago

  • Economic Times

Crypto sector breaches $4 trillion in market value during pivotal week

Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel The crypto sector's market value hit $4 trillion on Friday, according to CoinGecko, marking a milestone that reflects its shift from a nascent asset class to a central part of the global investment landscape.A wave of renewed optimism, regulatory clarity in key markets and rising institutional flows have catapulted the crypto sector to a new valuation U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill on Thursday to create a regulatory framework for U.S.-dollar-pegged cryptocurrency tokens, known as stablecoins, sending the bill to President Donald Trump , who is expected to sign it into law."The arrival of the Trump legislation signaled an about-turn in attitudes towards the crypto industry, but legislators are still exercising some caution," said Derren Nathan, head of equity research, Hargreaves lawmakers also passed two other crypto bills, sending them next to the Senate for consideration. One lays out a regulatory framework for crypto, while the other seeks to ban the U.S. from issuing a central bank digital $4 trillion milestone underscores how far the crypto industry has come from its speculative, fringe origins. With growing interest from asset managers, new exchange-traded products and broader adoption among retail and corporate users, digital assets are increasingly shaping conversations in global a type of cryptocurrency designed to maintain a constant value, usually a 1:1 dollar peg, are commonly used by crypto traders to move funds between tokens. Their use has grown rapidly in recent years, and proponents say they could be used to send payments instantly."The Genius Act will go down in history as a law that served as a foundational step in mainstreaming of crypto as an asset class," said Chris Perkins, president, treasury allocations to bitcoin are also gaining pace, with a growing number of public companies adding the token to their balance sheets as a long-term store of sector was last trading at a combined market value of $3.92 trillion, as bitcoin - the world's largest cryptocurrency - fell 1.8%.Bitcoin crossed the $120,000 mark earlier this week, setting a record. Brokerage Bernstein forecast it could climb to $200,000 by the second-biggest crypto token, was last up 4.5%. It has more than doubled over the past three crypto rally also powered gains in linked equities, with Coinbase and Robinhood climbing to all-time highs on Friday. Shares of the crypto exchange were last up 1%, while the retail trading platform, which also supports crypto trades, gained 3%.Ether-focused stocks also saw broad gains.

Trump aides discussed ending some SpaceX contracts, but found most were vital
Trump aides discussed ending some SpaceX contracts, but found most were vital

Mint

time15 minutes ago

  • Mint

Trump aides discussed ending some SpaceX contracts, but found most were vital

Elon Musk joined President Trump in the Oval Office in May as his role at the Department of Government Efficiency drew to a close. For the U.S. government, breaking up with Elon Musk is easier said than done. Just days after President Trump in early June raised the prospect of cutting ties with Musk's businesses, the Trump administration initiated a review of SpaceX's contracts with the federal government, according to people familiar with the matter. The review was intended to identify potential waste in the multibillion-dollar agreements the company has with the government, the people said. But administration officials determined that they couldn't eliminate most of those contracts because they are critical to the Defense Department and NASA, the people said. The early assessment underscored the company's dominance as the world's pre-eminent rocket launcher and a major satellite-internet provider. A White House official said the review of government contracts focused on a range of companies with lucrative government contracts. Musk and SpaceX didn't respond to requests for comment. Musk was once one of Trump's closest advisers, overseeing the cost-cutting effort known as the Department of Government Efficiency. But the relationship between the two men ruptured after the billionaire publicly criticized Trump's signature tax-and-spending bill. On June 5, as Musk's social-media attacks turned personal, Trump posted on Truth Social that the easiest way to save federal dollars was to 'terminate" the government contracts for Musk's companies. Days later, a senior General Services Administration official asked the Defense Department to fill out a spreadsheet with all of its current SpaceX contracts and other transaction agreements, according to an email described to The Wall Street Journal. The June 9 email was sent by Josh Gruenbaum, the GSA's commissioner for the Federal Acquisition Service. In the email, Gruenbaum said he planned to share the data with the White House. Gruenbaum also made similar requests for information about SpaceX contracts to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and nearly half a dozen other federal agencies, according to an administration official. The spreadsheets, which are known as 'scorecards," included the value of the SpaceX contracts and whether a competitor could do the same job more effectively, this official said. Instead of terminating SpaceX contracts after reviewing the data, White House and agency officials, including those at the Pentagon, determined that most of the deals were vital to the missions of the Defense Department and NASA, according to some of the people familiar with the matter. One of the people said some SpaceX contracts could face continued scrutiny. SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell met with White House officials in recent weeks as the review was ongoing, people familiar with the matter said. SpaceX CEO Elon Musk gave Donald Trump, then the president-elect, a tour of the company's Starbase facility in Texas before a launch last November. In struggling to find ways to reduce the government's dependence on SpaceX, the Trump administration highlighted how much agencies rely on the company's sophisticated technology. At least for now, the government has limited alternatives for many rocket launches and low-Earth-orbit satellite services, a situation that continues to give SpaceX—and Musk himself—an outsize role in space. The government has been aware of this dynamic for years, and the Trump administration's review is the latest sign that policymakers are wrestling with the situation. SpaceX's dominance has also sparked frustration among industry rivals. Government officials have expanded agencies' work with SpaceX because of the company's technology and prices. They have also pushed other space companies to step up and designed some contracts to stoke competition. Many rivals still have hurdles to overcome as they develop their own space vehicles and satellites, and race to get them into service. Several companies have faced delays and technical challenges as they worked on products that would compete with SpaceX. Setbacks are common as engineers try to mature complex hardware designed for space, and Musk's company has faced its own problems of late with a new vehicle. SpaceX executives have said the company believes strongly in competition, and its rockets often launch rivals' satellites to space. At an investor event in November, Shotwell said that the company has earned its contracts with the government by offering the best prices and executing. This year, the company has won more government contracts and continued working on major missions following the spat between the president and Musk. In April, SpaceX was awarded the most money and launches under a closely watched Pentagon contract, winning 28 national-security flights in a new deal valued at $5.9 billion. It launched an upgraded GPS satellite for the Space Force in May. NASA is planning to have SpaceX fly a new crew to the International Space Station at the end of this month. The company's Falcon rockets, which rely on reusable boosters, have emerged as workhorses for government space missions. SpaceX's Crew Dragon spacecraft is the only U.S. vehicle certified to fly people to and from the space station. Musk's threat—later walked back—to decommission Crew Dragon during his feud with Trump last month sparked worry inside NASA, the Journal previously reported. The agency has long wanted to have two different options for astronaut space-station missions. SpaceX also has a growing business providing high-speed internet to government agencies through its Starlink satellite fleet. A SpaceX division called Starshield provides several national-security satellite capabilities, and secured a major classified deal a few years ago from the intelligence agency that operates U.S. spy satellites. Write to Brian Schwartz at Shalini Ramachandran at and Micah Maidenberg at

Expect double-digit growth in FY26, rural demand to drive sales: Ceat CEO
Expect double-digit growth in FY26, rural demand to drive sales: Ceat CEO

Business Standard

time15 minutes ago

  • Business Standard

Expect double-digit growth in FY26, rural demand to drive sales: Ceat CEO

Tyre maker Ceat Ltd expects to maintain a double-digit growth this fiscal with domestic replacement segment, specially from rural markets, to drive sales while direct supplies to automobile makers are likely to be muted, according to company MD & CEO Arnab Banerjee. The company is also waiting and watching the tariff situation in the US, a big growth market but not a significant one right now for it, to decide its future course of expansion in the country, he told PTI. "We have started with a double-digit growth in Q1, which we have maintained last year also. We expect to maintain or accelerate that over the next two to three quarters," he said when asked for the outlook of the remainder of the fiscal. In the first quarter ended June 30, 2025 the company's revenue stood at Rs 3,529.4 crore, up 10.5 per cent year-on-year. As for the growth drivers, Banerjee said the two-wheeler replacement segment in the rural market is expected to do well across segments. "On the replacement side, rural demand should be good because monsoons have been good. So we expect rural demand to be robust. Then adoption of electric vehicles specially scooters etc is going strong," he said. Banerjee further said, "There will be some demand softness in the passenger cars side, which is dependent on larger towns but we are seeing a big shift there also from smaller size tyres to larger size tyres. Value growth could be there, margin growth could be there. In terms of the number of tyres, growth may not be that robust." Truck and bus radial tyres in the commercial vehicles segment will continue "to do decent", he noted. However, on the direct supplies to automakers, he said, "OEM growth in two-wheelers has slowed down and passenger vehicle is low single digit. It is going to continue like that unless there are some big launches which create excitement in the market." Medium and heavy commercial vehicles (M&HCV) could also slow down once the pre-buying before AC cabin regulation comes in (from October 1 this year), he said, adding "it may slow down a little bit. So, on the OEM side, slowdown is expected". When asked about the impact of Trump tariff uncertainty, Banerjee said, "The impact on our international business is low because our stakes are low in the US. Materially it is not significant but it is a big growth market for us." The US market accounts for about 3 per cent of the company's total sales. "We are waiting and watching...," he said, adding Ceat would wait for the tariff situation to settle down to plan its future growth strategy in the US. Asked if the company would look at local manufacturing in the US, he said, "We have not thought that far as yet but we are just waiting for the tariff situation (to settle down) and how the pricing will move in the US." Noting that there will be inflation on imported tyres, Banerjee said the US is hugely dependent on imported tyre, not only from India but from various countries. About the European market, he said Q1 was not good as distributors and channels were not stocking due to global geopolitical uncertainty. "However, for Q2 we have good order visibility, more of a seasonal offtake...Q2 order base is very good. Seasonal offtake is very good and if we execute it well, it will be good and from there we will see what happens in Q3 and Q4," Banerjee noted.

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into a world of global content with local flavor? Download Daily8 app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store