In unusual occurrence, both the Dow and small caps could be headed for a breakout, charts suggest

CNBC

3 days ago

As we know, large-cap growth and technology have been breaking out from various bullish patterns over the last few months, with many now pushing to new all-time highs and extending from there. However, two key market ETFs have yet to break through their own long-term bullish patterns — ironically, they are the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) . It's rare to see two areas on opposite ends of the market-cap spectrum looking this similar. Typically, one area leads while the other lags, allowing for rotation between them. Here, we could eventually get barbell-like leadership in play. Both IWM and DIA are well above their April lows — as is nearly everything else —but both are flat since late 2024. Most importantly, they are now showing undeniable bullish formations. Needless to say, the makeup of both ETFs is completely different, so instead of wondering if both bullish patterns can be completed, we need to dig a little deeper to understand what needs to happen for both IWM and DIA to officially break out and extend higher. Let's start with IWM. IWM is being driven, in large part, by two big groups: regional banks and biotech. They sit on opposite ends of the factor spectrum — regional banks are value-oriented and highly sensitive to interest rates, while biotech, especially small-cap biotech, is one of the most volatile segments of healthcare. Both areas have faced significant challenges recently and over the last few years. But we've seen some signs of life in the SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) . It has been trying to hold above a multi-week bullish inverse cup-and-handle pattern (highlighted in green). If it can continue to respect that 60-breakout zone, it would have a chance to complete an even bigger base (colored in blue) that stretches back to early 2022. In fact, all of this forms nearly a four-year basing pattern, with the head—or lowest point—marked by the regional bank crisis in March 2023. SPDR S & P Biotech ETF (XBI) has been net flat since early 2022, essentially trying — and struggling — to form a base. Every rally attempt has ultimately been sold off, though some moves have been impressively strong on a percentage basis, especially from October 2023 through early 2024. However, with the ETF unable to push much above the 100 level, momentum shifted sharply lower from late 2024 into the recent lows. From here, the best-case scenario for XBI — after its multi-month snapback — is to log a higher low above or near the mid-range of this large base. Historically, when XBI broke below the low-80s, downside momentum accelerated as traders grew impatient. If it can, in fact, log a higher low and start developing bullish patterns, its 14-day RSI, now below 50, could finally climb into the upper half of the scale (50–70). That type of RSI profile was prevalent during its strongest period from 2020 through early 2021. While large-cap technology has driven most of the gains in the broader large-cap ETFs, two of the weakest performers within the DIA Dow Jones Industrial Average this year are actually large-cap tech names. One of them, Apple (AAPL) , has recently been attempting to break through a bullish pattern. The chart also shows that previous sharp selloffs — such as the one from late 2024 through April — have repeatedly found demand near the same uptrend line drawn from April 2021. Notably, three of the past four rallies from that trendline have carried AAPL all the way back to its all-time high. We still view this scenario as probable, and if it plays out, Apple's strength could have a meaningful influence on DIA doing the same. Regarding Salesforce (CRM) , there are no clear bullish patterns at the moment, but the stock has pulled back to a key potential support zone near 230. We've seen demand return to the stock at this level three prior times since mid-2024. It also marks the breakout zone from late 2023. In other words, this is a critical level to hold. If buyers step in here again — as they have before — CRM could regain momentum, which would positively influence the ETF and potentially help push it toward all-time highs. Bottom line: These aren't all the factors at play, of course, but they are key drivers. If they can gain momentum, we could see breakouts in both IWM and DIA, potentially turning them into leaders for a period of time. — Frank Cappelleri Founder: https://cappthesis.com DISCLOSURES: (None) All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY . THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL'S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MIGHT NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. Click here for the full disclaimer.