Agencies plan for near-Earth asteroid's close encounter in 2032
On December 27, 2024, the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Rio Hurtado, Chile, detected a hunk of space rock approximately 828,800 kilometers (515,000 miles) from Earth. Astronomers confirmed the object as a near-Earth asteroid, and catalogued it as 2024 YR4. But additional calculations soon raised red flags—its estimated 130-328 feet diameter and potential orbital path meant that, for the first time ever, an asteroid met the requirements to trigger the two UN-endorsed global planetary defense groups, the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG).
Once initiated, the organizations leverage every available research telescope around the world to train their lenses on the object and gather as much data as possible. 2024 YR4 is now speeding away from Earth, but astronomers gleaned enough information to estimate when it might return. Based on the available calculations, the asteroid will again near the planet on December 22nd, 2032. And when it does, there's an approximately 1.3 percent chance it will hit us.
'Asteroid 2024 YR4 has an almost 99 percent chance of safely passing Earth on 22 December 2032,' the European Space Agency said in its announcement on January 29, while still cautioning that 'a possible impact cannot yet be entirely ruled out.'
Any percentage indicating an asteroid strike might cause some people to worry, but as it stands, the odds remain incredibly slim. Putting it another way might offer further assurance against space-induced catastrophe: While 2024 YR 4 currently checks all the boxes for Level 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, the asteroid warning system's definition makes it clear that such objects will 'most likely' be reclassified down to 0 pending additional telescopic observations.
Astronomers may only have a limited window to gather more information, however. The ESA noted on Wednesday that 2024 YR4's elongated path around the Sun currently has it moving away from Earth in nearly a straight line, making it hard to learn its orbit. Experts likely have a few months before the asteroid begins fading from view. Until then, international agencies will continue coordinating their telescopes to observe 2024 YR4. This includes employing the European Southern Observatory's Very Large Telescope in Chile. Astronomers also estimate the asteroid will become observable once again in 2028, allowing for further analysis.
While 2024 YR4 appears unlikely to hit Earth, such events do happen every few thousand years. When they do, the damage is impressive. The Tunguska event, for example, is believed to have occurred after a roughly 130-feet-wide asteroid exploded over Siberia in 1908. Over 800-square-miles of forest was flattened by the resulting force, or over twice the area of New York City. If 2024 YR4 ends up topping out at astronomers' maxiumum 328-feet-wide estimate, the fallout could be even worse.
Available information doesn't narrow down a potential strike zone much, but that will also likely change as more data is collected. Regardless, based on what the experts already know, there's no real reason to start digging your asteroid bunker. And if those predictions are revised for the worse, there's already plenty of agencies readying plans to knock problematic space rocks out of Earth's path.
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