UFC 318 Main Event Odds, Picks And Predictions: Holloway Vs. Poirier 3
On Saturday, July 19, Max Holloway and Dustin Poirier meet for the third time in their long and illustrious MMA careers. The Holloway vs. Poirier 3 lightweight matchup serves as the main event of the UFC 318 pay-per-view fight card. At stake is Holloway's ceremonial BMF title. The much-anticipated scrap is also the last time Poirier will compete inside the UFC Octagon, as the former interim lightweight champion has announced he will retire following his trilogy fight with Holloway.
UFC 318 takes place on Saturday, July 19, at Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana. The UFC 318 main card streams on ESPN+ pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN and early prelims on ESPN+.
UFC 318 Main Event Preview: Max Holloway Vs. Dustin Poirier 3
ATLANTA, GA - APRIL 13: (L-R) Dustin Poirier and Max Holloway embrace after finishing five rounds ... More in their interim lightweight championship bout during the UFC 236 event at State Farm Arena on April 13, 2019 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)
Dustin Poirier (30-9-0-1) has been a UFC fighter since 2011. At the time he had a 7-1 record. Between 2011 and 2018, Poirier went 16-4-0-1, picking up notable wins over Max Holloway, Bobby Green, Jim Miller, Anthony Pettis, Justin Gaethje, and Eddie Alvarez. His losses during that stretch came to The Korean Zombie, Cub Swanson, Conor McGregor, and Michael Johnson.
Poirier's wins over Miller, Pettis, Gaethje, and Alvarez set him up to fight for the interim UFC lightweight title against then-UFC featherweight titleholder Max Holloway. Poirier was the No. 3 ranked fighter in the UFC 155-pound division at the time, April 2019. Poirier claimed the interim crown with a decision win.
In September 2019, Poirier faced Khabib Nurmagomedov in a title unification bout. Nurmagomedov won that contest by third-round submission.
Three wins after that, including two TKO victories over Conor McGregor, put Poirier in another lightweight title fight. He lost that battle to Charles Oliveira, falling to a rear-naked choke in the third round of their December 2021 matchup.
The 36-year-old Poirier is 2-2 since that setback with wins over Michael Chandler and Benoit Saint Denis. Poirier's losses during that run came against Justin Gaethje for the BMF title and, most recently, opposite Islam Makhachev for the UFC lightweight title at UFC 302 in June 2024.
Poirier has 15 fight-night bonus awards, which ties him for fourth all-time in that category. Poirier is the No. 6 ranked UFC lightweight.
ATLANTA, GA - APRIL 13: (L-R) Dustin Poirier and Max Holloway meet in the middle of the Octagon in ... More their interim lightweight championship bout during the UFC 236 event at State Farm Arena on April 13, 2019 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)
Max Holloway (26-8) has been with the UFC since 2012. If there's a stat that the UFC tracks, chances are Holloway is among the leaders. He holds the UFC featherweight record for wins (20), finishes (11), knockouts (nine), win streak (13 straight), total fight time (6:58:57), significant strikes landed (2,971), and total strikes landed (3,180). Holloway's overall UFC records include significant strikes landed (3,457) and total strikes landed (3,706).
Holloway's run as UFC featherweight champ began in June 2017 when he knocked out Jose Aldo. Holloway entered that contest as the interim champ, a belt he won by knocking out Anthony Pettis in December 2016. He defended his title against Aldo (TKO), Brian Ortega (TKO), and Frankie Edgar (decision). He also attempted to win the interim UFC lightweight belt during that run, but he fell short, dropping a decision to Dustin Poirier.
Holloway's championship run ended in December 2019 when Alexander Volkanovski beat him by decision. Volkanovski retained the title in an immediate rematch.
Wins over Calvin Kattar and Yair Rodriguez earned Holloway another shot at Volkanovski and his title in July 2022, but the champ retained his belt with a decision win.
Holloway followed that setback with wins over Arnold Allen, the Korean Zombie, and Justin Gaethje. The Gaethje victory, a fight that many voted 'Fight of the Year' and 'Knockout of the Year,' earned Holloway the BMF title. That fight took place at 155 pounds.
Holloway followed his BMF title win with the first knockout loss of his career, falling to Ilia Topuria in a UFC featherweight title fight in October 2024.
Holloway was recently removed from the UFC featherweight rankings per his request. He is ranked at No. 5 at 155 pounds and sits at No. 11 in the pound-for-pound rankings.
UFC 318 Main Event Betting Lines And Movement: Max Holloway Vs. Dustin Poirier 3
When the betting lines opened for this fight, Poirier was the -150 betting favorite over the +130 Holloway. The line has shifted in a major way. Today, Holloway is listed at -138, while Poirier checks in at +118.
UFC 318 Main Event Tale Of The Tape: Max Holloway Vs. Dustin Poirier 3
Age: 33
Height: 5'11'
Reach: 69'
Stance: Orthodox
Age: 36
Height: 5'9'
Reach: 72'
Stance: Southpaw
UFC 318: Holloway Vs. Poirier Previous Meetings
LAS VEGAS, NV - FEBRUARY 04: (L-R) Dustin Poirier attempts an arm bar submission against Max ... More Holloway during the UFC 143 event at Mandalay Bay Events Center on February 4, 2012 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Nick Laham/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)
Poirier is 2-0 against Holloway. They first met in a featherweight scrap at UFC 143 in February 2012. The bout was Holloway's fifth pro fight and first as a member of the UFC. He was 4-0 heading into the contest. Meanwhile, Poirier had been with the WEC/UFC for two years by then with a 11-1 pro record. Poirier won that fight, and earned Submission of the Night, for his first-round triangle armbar stoppage.The two faced off for the second time in April 2019 at UFC 236. That matchup was for the interim UFC lightweight title. Poirier won that 'Fight of the Night' bonus-winning scrap. Poirier failed to unify the title, losing to Khabib Nurmagomedov by submission at UFC 242 in September 2019.
UFC 318 Main Event Predictions And Picks: Max Holloway Vs. Dustin Poirier 3
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - APRIL 13: Max Holloway reacts to the knockout of Justin Gaethje in the BMF ... More championship fight during the UFC 300 event at T-Mobile Arena on April 13, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)
One thing you need to do is forget about the first two fights between these two. The first matchup was Holloway's UFC debut. The second was Holloway moving up to lightweight for the first time under the UFC banner. Today, nearly nine years after that second fight, Holloway has developed into one of the best fighters in the UFC, a relentless pressure fighter who never stops moving, but who is also better at every facet of his striking game, which is where he excels. That's not to say Poirier isn't better as well, but his progress is more incremental when compared to Holloway's.
Expect an active and exciting fight on Saturday night. Poirier is the better all-around fighter, but Holloway is the better striker.
Poirier is under a lot of pressure in this matchup, and that could be a negative. He's fighting at home. The UFC has said this card has been built for him. He's retiring. If he can put all of that behind him and fight to his strengths, he has a good chance to win. However, if he looks to entertain and put his skills on the back burner, Holloway is likely to win because of his output and activity on the feet.
The pick is Holloway to win via decision, but a Poirier pick is not out of line. Also, look for the fight to go the distance.
We will have more on the UFC 318 co-main event, Costa vs. Kopylov, as fight night nears, as well as live results, reactions, highlights and more for the UFC 318 pay-per-view card on fight night
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