ADP payrolls report could be providing a warning about the weakening labor market
ADP's private payrolls report for May painted a pretty dour picture of the labor market as the first half of 2025 nears a close. How much that will be mirrored in Friday's official nonfarm payrolls tally, though, is anybody's guess. Unfortunately, ADP usually offers little predictive power for any individual month's report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. While the two track surprisingly close over longer periods of time, in the near term there's virtually no correlation. Still, the May report from the payrolls processing firm showing just 37,000 net new hires jibes with other weakening labor market indicators that seem like a warning sign for a potential downside surprise from the BLS. "As we saw a month ago, the ADP payrolls number isn't always a reliable predictor of the government's monthly jobs data, but in the current environment, today's downside surprise could raise more eyebrows than usual," said Chris Larkin, head of trading and investing for E-Trade Morgan Stanley. Indeed, the respective April indicators for private payroll growth showed a wide disparity — 60,000 from ADP, 167,000 from BLS. That was the third consecutive month that the firm undershot the BLS figure. The trend, though, has been in the other direction. Over the past year, ADP has shown stronger growth than the BLS — 150,000 to 130,000. Further, the typical difference is less than one standard deviation, indicating that at least over the longer term, the two tallies tend to converge. There could, then, be at least a few lessons to learn from ADP heading into the big number Friday. The report found that businesses with fewer than 50 employees reported a loss of 13,000. Such apprehension to hire is consistent with fears from small companies that import a lot of their goods that they will be hurt by President Donald Trump's tariffs . Small-cap stocks also have reflected such worries, with the Russell 2000 down nearly 6% year to date. .RUT YTD line Russell 2000 YTD "Just put yourself in the shoes of an employer and we can understand the hesitancy that so many business people have, especially small businesses that just don't have the flexibility that larger companies have to adjust, nor the finances," wrote Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group. Economists, though, are unlikely to adjust the consensus estimate for 125,000 nonfarm payroll growth in the BLS report. Few Wall Street shops even offer written commentary after the ADP release, in contrast to its counterpart that draws opinions from virtually everyone. ADP does have a few fans. "ADP's measure of private job growth is different from the official report that the Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish on Friday," wrote Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica. "But since ADP has real-time payroll data for over 25 million private workers, it's a good preview of the official numbers."
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Forbes
39 minutes ago
- Forbes
Musk And Trump's Master Class In What CEOs Should Not Do
When a CEO has a falling out with another leader, it's usually not a huge news story. But when that CEO is Elon Musk, it's another matter entirely. The CEO of companies including Tesla, SpaceX and xAI is known for his dramatic and mercurial management and personal style, and it's amplified by his social media platform X. And in this case, the other leader is President Donald Trump, who is also known for a dramatic and volatile personal style. Both men are widely considered difficult to work with, and the strength of the close bond they forged (with probably more than a little help from Musk's more than $250 million in campaign contributions during the election) was widely questioned. And last week, it all ended in spectacular fashion. From X, Musk began attacking Trump and the administration for the 'big, beautiful bill'—featuring tax cuts and adding trillions to the deficit—and Trump hit right back on Truth Social, threatening to cancel all of the contracts Musk has with the federal government and pledging to sell the Tesla he bought earlier in the year when Musk brought several models to show off at the White House. And, because both of their social media accounts are public, the world watched, jeered, laughed and memed. The personal attacks have died down and, Forbes' Jeremy Bogaisky points out, it's highly unlikely that all SpaceX contracts will be canceled, considering NASA relies on the company's rockets and satellites. But Trump and Musk have again put on a breathtaking display of what not to do in business. It should be apparent that business leaders should avoid getting into an emotional fight on social media, but neither Trump nor Musk is known for doing things by the book. The feud cratered stock for each man's publicly traded companies—Musk's Tesla and Trump Media and Technology Group—and erased billions from Musk's net worth. As the dust settles, it's unclear what the long-range impact of this flameout will be. Musk was successful in getting some Republicans in Congress and ordinary people to start questioning the spending bill. And though his net worth took a beating, he remains the world's richest person. However, Musk likely will be the loser in the fight, at least in the short term. Musk's role in the Trump Administration, serving as a special government employee who gleefully and mercilessly chainsawed his way through government departments, bureaucracy and career employees, tarring many functions that had existed for generations as 'fraud,' soured the public's perception of him—and Tesla. Musk's car company was already seen to be on the decline, thanks to a series of non-political decisions he made prior to getting involved with Trump, including a pullback on an affordable model, the overly expensive albatross Cybertruck, and a new focus on self-driving taxis. Tesla deliveries and sales have been down, and Forbes' Alan Ohnsman writes that there are many areas where Trump could use federal regulations to attack Musk, including a review that could lead to his robotaxi launch being blocked, or investigations into the carmaker's technology. And many Tesla shareholders, including several union pension funds, are growing increasingly tired of Musk being in the CEO's chair at all. Many are pushing Tesla's board to replace Musk, Ohnsman writes. Nine state treasurers and comptrollers sent Tesla Chair Robyn Denholm a letter last month expressing concern about the risks to their economies if Tesla falters. Whatever happens next with Musk will determine many things for the long and short term. When society is tumultuous, people often look back to nostalgic memories—and for many around the world, Crayola has an outsized role in their childhood. I spoke with CEO Pete Ruggiero, who has worked at the creativity company for nearly a quarter century, about how they use nostalgia and creativity innovation to drive brand growth. An excerpt from our conversation is later in this newsletter. getty It's not just you; everyone is having a difficult time right now. In Q2, the Conference Board's Measure of CEO Confidence fell by 26 points, bottoming out at 34, the largest quarter-over-quarter decline since the quarterly survey began in 1976. Any score under 50, the Conference Board writes, means there were more negative than positive responses. CEOs haven't been this pessimistic since Q4 2022, when high inflation and supply chain difficulties were in full swing. CEOs' responses were pessimistic about many business factors. A total of 82% said today's economic conditions are worse than six months ago. Nearly seven in 10 said conditions in their industries are now worse than they were six months ago. And 64% expect economic conditions to get worse in the next six months. About 83% anticipate a recession in the next 12 to 18 months. The biggest concerns for CEOs in all industries are geopolitical instability, trade and tariffs, and legal and regulatory uncertainty. With all of the issues, however, most CEOs aren't anticipating a deviation from hiring plans. Just under half plan to maintain the size of their workforce, and compared with Q1, only 1% more expect a net reduction. A now hiring sign on the window of a closed Big Lots store in Lewisburg, Pennsylvania. For the most part, there were no wild swings in the stock market last week. But that doesn't mean things were uneventful. Employment figures were released, showing weak private sector job growth, according to a report from ADP. The U.S. added just 37,000 private sector jobs—far short of consensus forecasts of 110,000 new positions. Small business employment was down 13,000 and manufacturing jobs were down 3,000. Chris Larkin, head of trading and investing at E-Trade, told Forbes that some tariff-related slowdowns in the market were to be expected. Trump, meanwhile, used the report to demand that the Federal Reserve 'LOWER THE RATE' for baseline interest at its meeting next week. (According to CME FedWatch, 99.9% of analysts think interest rates will not be changed.) The Labor Department's employment report was more optimistic, indicating that the U.S. added 139,000 nonfarm jobs from April to May, and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. Meanwhile, the newly increased 50% tariffs on most imported steel and aluminum went into effect last Wednesday. Trump had said this increase was necessary to counter 'trade practices that undermine national security,' though it was condemned by global players including the EU and Canada. At the 2025 Forbes Iconoclast Summit last week, hedge fund billionaire Ken Griffin shared his frustration with Trump's 'anti-growth' tariff agenda, which he said has 'taken their toll already on our economy.' Griffin wasn't the only one to share that sentiment last week. A report from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development warned that Trump's tariffs are likely to significantly slow down the global economy, and the U.S. will be one of the nations that is hardest hit. The Clinton Clean Energy Center in Clinton, Illinois. All technology—enterprise or not—appears to be moving toward more sophisticated AI functions. And while AI can do many things, it requires a lot of electricity. Last week, Meta made a deal to get the power it needs, signing a 20-year agreement to purchase all of the power generated at a Constellation Energy nuclear plant in Clinton, Illinois. The agreement starts in June 2027—after an existing state agreement runs out—and will expand the plant's output. Meta has prioritized finding sources of nuclear power, both with new plants and existing ones, to support its technology going forward. The company announced an RFP for nuclear energy developers in December, and says it has shortlisted potential new nuclear power resources. This is the second deal a tech company has made with Constellation to redevelop its nuclear plants for AI. In September, Microsoft announced a 20-year deal with the power provider for one of its reactors at its Three Mile Island facility in Pennsylvania (not impacted by the 1979 meltdown). Constellation has said it expects to restart the reactor by 2028. Amazon and Google have both been investing in small nuclear reactors, and Google announced an investment in three advanced nuclear energy projects by Elementl Power. These deals, coupled with four executive orders from Trump aimed at bolstering nuclear power, seem to herald a new nuclear power age in the U.S., writes Forbes senior contributor David Blackmon. In the meantime, tax incentives for renewable energy sources, including solar panels and wind turbines, are in line to be cut in Trump's latest budget. Still, Forbes senior contributor Ken Silverstein writes, renewable energy is touted by many as the fastest and least expensive way to get more power into the grid—and could also play a huge role in generating the electricity needed for the AI-driven future. Crayola CEO Pete Ruggiero. Pete Ruggiero started working at Crayola in 1997 under its previous name, Binney & Smith. In his time at the company, he's worked in operations, sourcing, supply chain and ran its European business. He was COO from 2020 until last year, when he was named CEO. I spoke with Ruggiero about the company's position at the intersection of creativity and nostalgia for consumers of all ages, and its plans for innovation and expansion. This conversation has been edited for length, clarity and continuity. A longer version is available here. What do you see as the purpose of the Crayola brand? Ruggiero: I see a brand that is ubiquitous. Wherever a consumer is experiencing a creative moment, this brand is present. I see a brand that's global in nature. It's underrepresented outside the United States, yet our brand recognition is surprisingly high in all markets. One of our initiatives is to grow Crayola to be 30% outside of the U.S. and Canada by 2030. It's competitive but we have some work to do there. This whole idea of being wherever the consumer is comes through innovation, international expansion and category expansion. We are right now held tight in what we call the 'Crayola aisle.' The consumer expects us to be in the toy aisle, the craft aisle, at checkout and other places, and we're underrepresented there. You want Crayola to be a brand that's ubiquitous whenever anybody is thinking of creating. How do you expand from what everybody thinks about—a go-to for children's art projects—while using the branding that you have and not alienating the people who have depended on you? It always comes back to the consumer and this majestic brand. You just have to look at some of the work we've been doing. Our Campaign For Creativity was our effort to understand more deeply why creativity is so important to our consumers: Why is it that nine out of 10 parents believe creativity is important for their children, and why is it that 96% of parents use color to help their children understand creativity? We used some of our artwork from the Dream Makers program, and went back to some of the artists who had created that 30 years ago to understand what creativity has meant in their lives. We get a deeper understanding of the consumer. Creativity Week is a program that we've done for the past four years. It started out as a test and we've been able to expand it this year to 44% of all school-aged children in the U.S. This was actors and artists and authors, an Olympian and astronauts all participating in bringing creativity to children. We were in 122 countries doing these programs. The nostalgia and excitement around our brand is very interesting. There's more to us than back-to-school business. We're selling year-round. When I came to this company, we started building inventory in January. We would ship everything out the door, and I'm not sure what we did with ourselves from September until December. The business model now is global and year-round. As soon as the Easter period ended, we're prepping for and shipping back-to-school. As soon as back-to-school is over, we'll be prepping for and shipping Halloween, and then the holiday season. Then we'll go back to school and Valentine's Day. We're actually going a step further to experiential retail with the Crayola Experience. We have a Crayola Experience model—Orlando, Florida, and Easton, Pennsylvania, are the lynchpins—800,000 people come through those two Crayola Experiences a year. The dwell time is three and a half hours. We've expanded that model overseas. We've already announced China and we're announcing other markets shortly. When you think about a brand that moms and teachers and dads trust and kids love and adore, and we have a parent company—Hallmark, [with a] media business, the Hallmark Channel. There's this great opportunity for us to be in more and to enter the studios business. You've seen the company for a long time and from many different viewpoints. How is it different from the CEO's office? I've worked directly for four CEOs, and I've seen five CEOs come through. Each CEO that I've had the chance to work for or with had great ideas and brought great things to this company. One of the first things I did when I became CEO was to pull out their strategic planning exercises, many of which I participated in as a member of the leadership team, and figure out those ideas that are working and those that were really good but whatever reason stalled out. That's the exciting part for me: To be able to step into the chair having seen all of the good work that previous CEOs have done, and take it to the next level. What I'm most excited about bringing to the table is a focus on a very simple strategy of next-level mindset building Crayola for the next quarter century, focused on culture, growth and diversification. The culture here is around collaboration, celebration. We try to celebrate when we win. A culture of: It's healthy to celebrate your problems. It's unhealthy to kick them under the carpet. And a culture of perpetual optimism, that if you say it out loud, it has a pretty good chance of coming to be. The last piece here is we're trying to get excellence in everything we do. As Vince Lombardi said, we're chasing perfection so that we can achieve excellence. That's a very lofty target, but we're going to be very good in things that we do. What advice would you give to other CEOs? Transparency and authenticity are the most important characteristics. Your employees have to trust you. They have to believe in what you're doing. And the only way to gain that trust is through transparency and authenticity. When things aren't good, you take accountability for it. When things are great, you're celebrating it and you're giving credit for the successes. Send us C-suite transition news at forbescsuite@ The first half of 2025 has been a workout for even the most well-prepared CEO, and it looks like things will not be calming down any time soon. To finish the year strong—in terms of both leadership and mental health—take these steps to take care of yourself and be honest with employees and investors. No matter how careful and well-intentioned you are, executives and companies can make mistakes and a public apology may be necessary. Here are some tips to make that apology in a way that is sincere and causes the least amount of brand damage. The House of Representatives passed a bill by voice vote last week that could have a big impact on small business contracts with the federal government. What would it do? A. Limit the size of contracts to $1 million per year B. Require that all contracts be written in plain language C. Require contractors to complete a short answer about how their services will further the Trump Administration's goals D. Remove all diversity requirements See if you got it right here.
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Waymo suspends robotaxi rides near LA protests after 5 cars are set ablaze
Five Waymo vehicles were set on fire during protests in LA about Trump's immigration crackdown. The company suspended service in downtown LA, a spokesperson confirmed to BI. Waymo doesn't think the vehicles were intentionally targeted and is working with the LAPD. Waymo suspended robotaxi service in downtown Los Angeles on Sunday after five vehicles were set on fire during protests against President Donald Trump's immigration raids in the city. Photos show Waymo cars covered in anti-ICE graffiti burning in the street, engulfed in smoke. A spokesperson for Waymo confirmed to Business Insider that five vehicles had been vandalized during the protests. The company temporarily suspended service in downtown LA and doesn't think its vehicles were intentionally targeted, the spokesperson said. Waymo is working with the Los Angeles Police Department, they added. On Sunday night, the LAPD said on X that "burning lithium-ion batteries release toxic gases." Electric vehicles often use lithium-ion batteries. The spokesperson told BI that Waymo, which Alphabet owns, operates more than 300 vehicles in LA and is continuing operations in other parts of the city. It's not the first time that Waymo vehicles have been targeted in California. Last year, a crowd in San Francisco set one of the robotaxis on fire during Lunar New Year celebrations amid a wave of distrust about driverless vehicles. The protests broke out on Friday after an immigration raid in the city. Over the weekend, Trump bypassed California Gov. Gavin Newsom's authority and ordered 2,000 National Guard members to the LA area. Despite the dramatic images, the protests have largely been peaceful, according to multiple reports. The demonstrations have become a political lightning rod between Newsom and Trump, and the governor has announced that he's suing the administration. They may, however, serve as an olive branch between the president and Elon Musk, who had an ugly falling out last week. Read the original article on Business Insider
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Is Being Frugal ‘Tacky'? Survey Reveals How Most Americans Feel About Saving
If you're feeling like everything is expensive these days, you're not imagining it. Year over year, costs are going up for Americans. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) indicated that as of 2023 — the most recent data available — average annual expenses for a U.S. household totaled $77,280, which breaks down to $6,440 a month. This figure includes the cost of housing, food, transportation and healthcare, among other categories. Check Out: Try This: To put this into perspective, the same average annual expenses for a U.S. household totaled just $72,967 in 2022. That's a 5.9% increase in just one year. And, in 2021, the same figure was $66,928, which is 13.4% less. With today's rising costs, you might feel compelled to be a bit more frugal, albeit embarrassed by it. However, the majority of Americans in 2025 think that frugality is no longer taboo. According to a new survey conducted by Talker Research for Chime, 61% of people say being frugal is no longer 'tacky.' As part of Chime's Financial Progress Month, 4,000 Americans were surveyed online between March 13 and March 21, 2025, and respondents were evenly split by gender and generation. Here are some of the highlights: 45% of respondents said they're more willing to discuss their finances today than five years ago. 46% of respondents agreed frugality is smart. 43% of respondents said 'avoiding unnecessary spending' is part of being frugal. 72% of respondents said discussing budgets is now 'socially acceptable.' Per the report, Janelle Sallenave, chief spending officer at Chime, said, 'Taking control of your financial future isn't just about having the right tools — it's about feeling confident, building good habits and having a strong support system.' She added that talking about money enables people to learn more about it and 'make informed financial decisions.' The survey results clearly show that, on the whole, Americans are beginning to feel less shame and embarrassment about being frugal, and they're talking about money more often. Along with normalizing frugality, making money talk less taboo is surely a step in the right direction. For You: While views on frugality are shifting, different generations have their own definitions of 'financial progress.' 32% of Gen Zers said it's being able to spend freely at the grocery store. 31% of millennials focused on wealth-building — being able to make their money grow. Other generations were more utilitarian: They said financial progress was about having more money than they need to pay bills. Speaking of financial progress, the good news is that close to half — 43% — of respondents said that, compared to five years ago, they're in a better financial situation now, though that depends on generation. More younger Americans tended to feel that they're doing better, with 55% of Gen Zers reporting positive changes, while 38% of boomers actually said they're doing worse, financially. Ultimately, being frugal is more socially acceptable than it was 10 years ago, and that's a good thing. It may allow you to stay within budget, save money and invest in your future. More From GOBankingRates 25 Places To Buy a Home If You Want It To Gain Value This article originally appeared on Is Being Frugal 'Tacky'? Survey Reveals How Most Americans Feel About Saving Sign in to access your portfolio
