Tariffs and tight budgets reshape back-to-school shopping
Why it matters: Back-to-school is the second-biggest retail event of the year, after the holidays.
This season is a stress test for family budgets and a strategy test for retailers trying to hold onto value-conscious shoppers.
Catch up quick: New U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports — including backpacks, pens, binders and shoes — kicked in earlier this year, rose sharply, then came back down to levels still historically high.
Some retailers stocked up early and "purchased a lot in advance, and some didn't purchase as much because of the uncertainty," Deborah Weinswig, CEO of Coresight Research, told Axios.
"Clients of ours who are in denim or basics brought everything in early. They've been warehousing it," Weinswig said.
Early school shopping driven by tariff anxiety
The big picture: 67% of back-to-school shoppers had already started buying for the coming school year as of early June, according to the National Retail Federation's annual survey of nearly 7,600 consumers, released Tuesday.
This is up from 55% last year and the highest since NRF started tracking early shopping in 2018, the group said.
51% of families said they are shopping earlier this year compared with last year "out of concern that prices will rise due to tariffs," NRF said.
School supply purchases were up 175% during last week's Prime Day, Adam Davis, managing director at Wells Fargo Retail Finance, tells Axios, citing Adobe Analytics data.
Davis says this shows "price-weary consumers were looking to make the most of retail sales."
By the numbers: NRF said Tuesday that families with students in elementary through high school plan to spend an average of $858.07 on clothing, shoes, school supplies and electronics, down from $874.68 in 2024.
Total spending is estimated at $39.4 billion, up from $38.8 billion last year.
Shoppers are expected to spend $13.6 billion on electronics, $11.4 billion for clothing and accessories, $7.8 billion on shoes and $6.6 billion on school supplies, NRF said.
Back-to-school prices up
Zoom in: Stationery and supplies prices have risen 30% over the past five years, according to Deloitte's 2025 back-to-school survey.
Between May 2021 and 2025, boys' apparel climbed 14%, girls' apparel and footwear were each up 4%, while personal computers and peripheral equipment fell 11%.
"Parents are experiencing overall economic pressures and need to make decisions about what they buy," Brian McCarthy, principal of retail strategy at Deloitte Consulting LLP, told Axios.
Yes, but: The full impact of tariffs hasn't hit store shelves yet — and back-to-school season may be the first test of how much price pressure shoppers will tolerate, according to a Wells Fargo Investment Institute report released Monday.
The June Consumer Price Index shows a 3.4% increase in stationary, stationery supplies and gift wrap and a 10.2% price index in college textbooks.
What they're saying: "Retailers have done a solid job front-loading inventory to delay price spikes — so for now, many shelves still reflect pre-tariff costs," David Warrick, EVP at supply chain risk firm Overhaul, told Axios. "But that buffer may run out by late summer or early fall."
"We're starting to see price creep on everyday items — including school supplies — but the full impact of tariffs will likely cascade in phases," Warrick said.
"Many of these categories are caught in the crossfire of the latest tariff expansions, and we're expecting an average price increase of 12 to 15% across back-to-school essentials," Warrick added.
Target teacher discount 2025, holding supply prices
Target is holding the line on 2024 prices for key items like a $5 backpack and a bundle of 20 supplies under $20, to help ease pressure on family budgets.
As in past years, Target is offering a one-time 20% discount for verified college students and verified teachers.
Zoom out: Not all retailers have unveiled their full back-to-school plans.
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