CSIRO creates 3D model of Richmond River catchment to test flood mitigation options
The CSIRO has mapped the Richmond River catchment in northern New South Wales at an unprecedented level of detail.
The first-of-its-kind model will help test the most effective way of protecting communities against floods.
Senior principal research scientist Jai Vaze said it was a detailed mathematical representation of the 7,000-square-kilometre catchment.
It includes millions of data inputs capturing flood-relevant factors including topography, hydrology, evaporation, soil types and vegetation.
"To look at any flood-mitigation scenarios reliably, whether it will work or not, you need a catchment-scale model," Dr Vaze said.
The model shows how flooding unfolded across a six-week period in 2022 across the catchment.
Its pinpoint accuracy relies in part on Bureau of Meteorology rainfall data refined to hourly readings localised to one-square-kilometre grids.
It may sound simple enough, but the model has been the result of more than two years of painstaking work by Dr Vaze and his team.
Lidar technology with 3D laser scanning gathered 16 measurement points per square metre across 30,000 square kilometres of the Tweed, Brunswick, Richmond and Clarence river catchments.
The team used sonar to collect high-resolution data on river depths and riverbed undulation.
Dr Vaze said the model would have the capacity to accurately test the effect of various flood mitigation options, or "bundles" of options, that could include hard infrastructure such as levees.
He said the project shifted the dial from reactive flood responses to actively planning ahead to mitigate their effects.
"The government wanted to look at whether something could really be done [to mitigate flooding].
"There are a number of local area models built over past decades, but a full catchment model was needed to answer any real questions for flood mitigation."
The 2022 Northern Rivers floods have cost the NSW and federal governments $880 million in reactive solutions designed to move people off the flood plain, or elevate and retrofit people's homes to withstand the next flood when it inevitably comes.
A further $150 million has been allocated to resilience measures including repairs and upgrades to pumping stations, improvements to town drains and flood channels, establishing community-led resilience teams and reforestation projects.
The Lismore Citizens Flood Review Group has been lobbying for action to address flooding in the catchment since the Cyclone Debbie flood of 2017, and worked closely with Dr Vaze to feed local knowledge into the model.
Beth Trevan and her son Richard said it was serendipitous good fortune that led to then National Recovery and Resilience Agency coordinator Shane Stone supporting and funding the project.
Mrs Trevan said it was also the region's great fortune that Dr Vaze was assigned to do the job.
"He is totally committed to the region and solving the problem," she said.
"He has given his life to it for the past three years, seven days a week — he never stops working on it.
"What is being developed is international best practice; it's not only going to be a template for Australia, it's going to be a template internationally.
Richard Trevan said a lot was riding on the success of the model in coming up with flood-mitigation solutions for the Richmond River catchment.
"We are the most at-risk community in the nation for floods, but to date fully effective solutions have not been implemented," Mr Trevan said.
"Nationally, just 3 per cent of government funding has gone into mitigation while 97 per cent is spent on recovery.
"Lismore has one chance to get this right. For us, it's about getting the final recommendation to the point where our politicians can actually move forward and make the kinds of changes that are needed.
"Ultimately, for our kids and our grandkids, we want them to be able to look back at this moment and say that we got it right."
Whian Whian resident Patrick Tatam has lived for a decade at the headwaters of a tributary feeding the catchment.
When the rain really comes down at his place, two-hourly checks of his rain gauge reveal what's in store for downstream communities including Lismore, Coraki and Woodburn.
He is skeptical that anything can be done to protect them.
"It is strong and violent."
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