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Miami Herald
a minute ago
- Miami Herald
History suggests stocks could have more upside, says analyst
There weren't many beating the bullish drum on the stock market in early April. The S&P 500 and tech-laden Nasdaq Composite were mired in a brutal downturn following harsher-than-hoped tariff announcements and growing economic concerns on jobs and inflation. The S&P 500 retreated 19% from its mid-February highs before finding its footing on April 9. That near-bear market had everyone a bit antsy, particularly given President Donald Trump's mounting trade war. Nevertheless, stocks' decline was fast and steep enough to cause most sentiment measures to signal oversold, suggesting that those willing to step into the fray could be rewarded for buying the dip. And boy, have they been rewarded. Don't miss the move: Subscribe to TheStreet's free daily newsletter The S&P 500 has marched 25% higher, and the Nasdaq has surged over 30%. President Trump's pause on most reciprocal tariffs fueled the gains on April 9. Hope that tariffs would settle at more manageable levels and significant new stimulus associated with trillions of dollars in tax cuts from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act kept the rally humming along to new all-time highs. The big question on most minds now is whether this record-setting run can continue. Those in the bearish camp point toward weaker GDP, cracks in the jobs market, and inflation risks. Bullish investors think most of those risks were priced in during the spring sell-off, and the bar has been set low enough that anything less than disaster would be good enough to push forward revenue, earnings, and economic outlooks higher, rather than lower. The debate has prompted many popular Wall Street analysts, including Carson Group's Chief Strategist Ryan Detrick, to update their outlook. Image source: Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images Stocks are forward-looking and are considered a leading, rather than lagging, indicator. The ability of stock prices to predict what may happen to the economy can be messy, with short-term fits and starts. However, stocks' ability to aggregate market participants' collective wisdom is generally considered a valuable tool for economists and investors. Related: Market legend makes surprising stock market bet The predictive nature of markets is one reason behind the old Wall Street adage, "stocks climb a wall of worry." Often, stocks bottom when everyone thinks the worst has yet to happen, and they top when everyone sees roses and daisies. Over the past three months, the stock market has climbed a big wall of concern. U.S. employers have announced over 696,000 layoffs through May, up 80% year over year, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. The unemployment rate has inched up to 4.1% in June from 3.4% in 2023. And inflation, while much lower than in 2022, when the Federal Reserve declared war on it by significantly raising interest rates, is still above the 2% level targeted by many, including the Fed. The backdrop still suggests that stagflation or, worse, recession is a possibility. But so far, stocks indicate the economy will sidestep most damage. While we don't know when the Fed may support the economy with interest rate cuts, most are modeling lower rates over the coming year, helping fuel economic activity. Also, the recently passed One Big Beautiful Bill Act contains significant tax cuts, including new Social Security income tax breaks and a higher State and Local Tax deduction, which provide additional money to support spending and GDP. If so, analysts who cut revenue and growth outlooks this spring will shift gears, increasing forecasts and potentially fueling additional upside. Those upward revisions would go a long way toward appeasing those concerned about the S&P 500's valuation, given that the recent rally has inflated its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. The S&P 500 topped out in February when its forward price-to-earnings ratio eclipsed 22. It bottomed out when the P/E ratio reached about 19. The recent rally has again pushed the S&P 500's P/E over 22, which historically doesn't correspond with favorable one-year returns. Ryan Detrick has been correctly banging the bullish drum for a while, and his team's midyear outlook also tells a bullish tale. Detrick's optimism is partially rooted in history. He often shares data highlighting how the stock market has historically behaved after catalysts, and this time is no exception. Fortunately, for bulls, history is on the side of more gains. The strategist points out that since the early 1970s, there have been five instances when the S&P 500 rose by 19% in 27 trading days like this year. Each time, the market was higher one year later, returning a median of 32.6%. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has been up one year later 74% of the time, returning a median of 10.4%. Related: Billionaire Ackman has one-word message on stock market We've already made a big chunk of returns, but Detrick's team writes, "This is still a young bull market." The average bull market lasts 67 months, and this one has only lasted a little over 30 months so far. "Like a cruise ship that is very hard to turn once it gets moving, bull markets tend to carry their momentum forward, another reason this one could last much longer than many think," wrote the analysts. As for valuation, they believe there's a bull case that a "low tariffs, big tax bill" environment will provide a catalyst for earnings, helping keep the P/E ratio in check. "It's hard to imagine that the tariffs will go back to where they were, but perhaps we're left with about 15% additional new tariffs on average- not at all trivial, but far from worst case," wrote the analysts. "Companies should be able to navigate the additional tariffs and maintain profit margins, especially larger companies with less fragile supply chains." Carson Group thinks the S&P 500 could reach 6,550, a 10% to 12% gain for 2025. Add in dividends, and the index's total return could be 12% to 15%. Currently, the S&P 500 is up about 7% in 2025. "Stocks came soaring back in one of the largest reversals ever, suggesting the lows for 2025 are likely behind us and better times could be coming for investors," said Detrick. "While 2025 has already been a wild ride - and we should still prepare for more ups and downs - we see reasons to expect this bull market to continue." Related: Legendary fund manager has blunt message on 'Big Beautiful Bill' The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.
CBS News
2 minutes ago
- CBS News
Transcript: Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan," July 20, 2025
The following is the transcript of an interview with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick that aired on "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan" on July 20, 2025. MARGARET BRENNAN: For more on the Trump administration's economic policy, we go now to Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnick. Welcome back to Face the Nation, Mr. Secretary, COMMERCE SECRETARY HOWARD LUTNICK: Great to be here. MARGARET BRENNAN: Well, you heard in our polling some of the perceptions of the economy; 61% of Americans believe the administration is putting too much focus on tariffs, 70% say the administration is not doing enough to lower prices, and 60% oppose new tariffs on imported goods. This is a centerpiece to your policy plan. How do you reverse public opposition? SEC. LUTNICK: They're going to love the deals that President Trump and I are doing. I mean, they're just going to love them. You know, the president figured out the right answer, and sent letters to these countries, said this is going to fix the trade deficit. This will go a long way to fixing the trade deficit, and that's gotten these countries to the table and they're going to open their markets or they're going to pay the tariff. And if they open their markets, the opportunity for Americans to export, to grow the business, farmers, ranchers, fishermen, this is going to be- the next two weeks, are going to be weeks for the record books. President Trump is going to deliver for the American people. MARGARET BRENNAN: Next two weeks for the record books, because you have that August 1st deadline. But, President Trump sent letters to most of the major trading partners announcing higher tariff rates effective August 1. That could hit countries accounting for three-quarters of US imports. Let's talk about Canada, one of the big ones. Their Prime Minister said this past week, there's not a lot of evidence they can get a trade deal with the U.S. that avoids tariffs. Is your message to Canada, Mr. Secretary, that no matter what they offer at the negotiating table, free trade is gone, there will be a tariff in place? LUTNICK: Now, see, that's silly. We have a plan called USMCA. U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Virtually 75% of all goods coming from Mexico and Canada already come in tariff-free. The President said look, unless you stop this fentanyl and close the border, we're just going to keep tariffs on the other 25% and that's what he has on. So, don't be confused about it. The President understands that we need to open the markets. Canada is not open to us. They need to open their market. Unless they're willing to open their market, they're going to pay a tariff. That's a simple message the President has. It's fair trade. It's reciprocal trade. Why should we have our country be wide open while theirs is closed? This is an 80-year wrong that President Trump is trying to fix, and our businesses are going to really, really enjoy it. I think the President is going to open between three and $400 billion of opportunity for Americans. That's 1.5%- up to 1.5% GDP growth, because the president's going to open all these markets up. You saw it with Vietnam. You saw it with Indonesia. You're going to watch all these other countries decide if they want to do business with America, let's just open our market up to America. That's the opportunity that President Trump is bringing. MARGARET BRENNAN: Well, we saw framework announcements with those countries you just mentioned, but back on what the Canadian Prime Minister, the man you're negotiating with, said, he's assuming there's going to be a tariff here. There's already this baseline 10% tariff that we are seeing from the administration. Is that set in stone, or is it going to go to like 15 or 20%? SEC. LUTNICK: Well, I think what you've got is you should assume that the small countries, you know, the Latin American countries, the Caribbean countries, many countries in Africa, they will have a baseline tariff of 10%. And then the bigger economies will either open themselves up or they'll pay a fair tariff to America for not opening themselves up and treating America unfairly. So, what the President's view is, and what he's instructed me to do is say, look, if you're willing to open yourself up and really open your economy to American business, to ranchers, fishermen, farmers, and businesses, then of course, we'll make a better deal with you. But if you're going to keep your tariffs and your tariff barriers holding us down, then of course, it seems fair that you should pay a tariff to do business with the greatest customer on Earth, the American consumer. MARGARET BRENNAN: Okay, so just quickly, are you going to renegotiate that free trade deal, the USMCA? LUTNICK: Oh, I think the President is absolutely going to renegotiate USMCA, but that's a year from today. MARGARET BRENNAN: Exactly. LUTNICK: Of course, 75% comes in free but of course, should you expect us to renegotiate it? It makes perfect sense for the President to renegotiate it. He wants to protect American jobs. He doesn't want cars built in Canada or Mexico when they could be built in Michigan and Ohio. It's just better for American workers. The President's got the American workers back. That's why they elected him. That's why the stock market is at all-time highs. They understand the President actually understands business and is doing it the right way. MARGARET BRENNAN: Well, okay, let me ask you about Europe. Boeing airplanes, Kentucky bourbon. These are some of the things that the Europeans are looking to target if we get into a trade war as retaliation by them-- SEC. LUTNICK: --they're not going to do it-- [CROSSTALK STARTS] MARGARET BRENNAN: You just met with-- SEC. LUTNICK: --they're just not going to do that– MARGARET BRENNAN: -- the European trade negotiator. He came out kind of downbeat. You disagree, you think we are going to get a deal with the European Union? LUTNICK: You know, I was on the phone with the European trade negotiators this morning about a half hour ago, so there's plenty of room. Look the president and the European Union, these are the two biggest trading partners in the world talking to each other. We'll get a deal done. I am confident we'll get a deal done. Okay, and it will be great for America, because the President has the back of America. So I think all these key countries will figure out it is better to open the markets to the United States of America than to pay a significant tariff, and Donald Trump has made that point clear. No one has protected America the way Donald Trump has protected America. It is so fun to work for him, because I have him behind me saying the right things for America, and I get to do those negotiations with all these countries, and you are going to see the best set of trade deals you've ever seen for America and for the American people. MARGARET BRENNAN: Is that August 1st deadline with the EU a hard deadline? Are you going to get a deal since you were just on the phone? SEC. LUTNICK: I can't hear anything. MARGARET BRENNAN: Can you- can you hear me, Mr. Secretary? It looks like your shot just froze up on my end. It looks like our remote shot with the secretary is frozen. So we're going to take a commercial break, try to fix it, and try to finish a conversation on the other side of this. [ COMMERCIAL BREAK ] MARGARET BRENNAN Right now, we want to go back to the Commerce Secretary, who I believe can hear me now. Mr. Secretary? SEC. LUTNICK: I can hear you now MARGARET BRENNAN: All right, but to pick up where we left off before the technical issues, August 1st, is it a hard deadline with the EU, or is that going to slide? SEC. LUTNICK: No, no, that's a hard deadline. So, on August 1, the new tariff rates will come in. But, nothing stops countries from talking to us after August 1, but they're going to start paying the tariffs on August 1. Now remember, the world is paying 10% right now, and China's paying 30%, so that's right now- and that's why we're running at about plus $30 billion a month for the American people. You got to remember, this is going to pay off our deficit. This is going to make America stronger. We are finally protecting America. MARGARET BRENNAN: Well, you'll have that income if you keep them in place. But, if you're negotiating them away, then they won't be there. So, I that that is contradictory to me. But -- SEC. LUTNICK: No, no, no, no, no. – MARGARET BRENNAN: -- So you're not negotiating the tariffs away? -- SEC. LUTNICK: Nothing is getting negotiated away. We have 10% of the world. No, no. 10% is definitely going to stay. Many countries will pay higher, like Vietnam and Indonesia, right? There 19 and 20%. Most countries will pay higher. The small countries are likely to be 10%, but the bigger countries are likely to pay higher. That's just the way it's going to be, because we can't have these $1 trillion trade deficits. It's just wrong for America, and Donald Trump is going to fix it. MARGARET BRENNAN: And American corporations are just going to swallow that, and not pass that price increase on to consumers? What's your projection? SEC. LUTNICK: What's so interesting is that you're worried about the importers. How about the people who build and employ Americans here? – MARGARET BRENNAN: – No I'm asking about people who go to the store to buy – SEC. LUTNICK: The people who make cars here, people who manufacture here. They don't pay a tariff. They don't pay a tariff at all. So, President Trump says it all the time, build in America, you don't pay a tariff. The idea that these importers are more important than the people who employ Americans, I think, it's just a wrong way of thinking about it. Americans deserve to be employed here and have the best jobs in the world, and that's what Donald Trump is trying to deliver. MARGARET BRENNAN: I was asking about consumer prices, what people will pay when they go to the store -- SEC. LUTNICK: They'll be low. I think they'll be low, shockingly low, MARGARET BRENNAN: Okay. The Consumer Price Index doesn't- doesn't currently reflect that, though. That- the trend is towards higher. SEC. LUTNICK: Well, it just went up, what'd it go up? A tenth of a percent? – MARGARET BRENNAN: – Two-tenths on the core – SEC. LUTNICK: Look, the dollar has declined more than 10%, right? So, the dollar declining sort of softens tariffs completely. These are small numbers. You're going to see, inflation is not going to change. Remember, inflation is an expectation of rates continuing to grow. Tariffs are just going to reset the price level for imports, for certain imports from certain countries. But everybody was building in America. And remember Donald Trump announced over $11 trillion of building in America. All that building in America, the construction jobs here. But then, when those products come on the shelves, they come on much cheaper. Energy is cheaper. I think you're going to see inflation stay right where it is. And Jerome Powell has held these rates up way too high, way too high. You're going to see him cut rates. The Fed is going to cut rates. Mortgages are going to be cheaper, and America is going to be so much better off under Donald Trump. MARGARET BRENNAN: There are reports that the Treasury Secretary has talked the president out of his threat to fire the Fed Chair since the Fed is already expected, on a consensus basis, to be lowering rates. Are you telling us tonight or today that he's not under threat, that he will keep his job? SEC. LUTNICK: The President is an amazingly transparent person. When he thinks something, he says it. So he said, look, this guy is doing the worst job. We have interest rates the same Gabon. You know, Europe- all of Europe, the 27 countries of Europe are in the twos, and we're in the force. That means your mortgage, everybody's watching, the mortgage is two points higher than it should be. So, the Fed should be cutting rates, and Donald Trump's going to try to figure out how to get there. Whether he decides- whether he decides to let Jerome Powell stay in the job or not, I'll leave that to Donald Trump. I think the guy's doing the worst job. He's costing us, you, me, and the American people, more than $500 billion. I think he's costing us $700 billion a year by keeping rates too high. It's just wrong. I don't know why he's torturing America this way. Our rates should be lower. MARGARET BRENNAN: He doesn't unilaterally set those rates, but we have to leave it there. We are out of time. Mr. Secretary, thank you for joining us and sticking through the technical- technical issues we had.
Yahoo
30 minutes ago
- Yahoo
This Redditor Debates Renovating Their 1,400-Square-Foot Home—Is It Smart Investing or a Financial Trap?
Benzinga and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue on some items through the links below. When you own a home, you get more freedom and flexibility than if you rented a property. You don't have to worry about rent hikes and end up with full control over your property. You can make renovations as needed, but those costs can add up. A high-earner recently shared on Reddit that they bought a 1,400-square-foot home that was built in 1909. Since that purchase, which was two years ago, the Redditor has "sunk a lot of money in the house" for essential and non-essential renovations. The Redditor put $220,000 into the home, and other Redditors proceeded to debate whether it was savvy or not. Don't Miss: Accredited investors can —with up to 120% bonus shares—before this Uber-style disruption hits the public markets This Jeff Bezos-backed startup will allow you to . A House Is Not An Investment Most people won't make money with their primary residence. You're locked into monthly mortgage payments and won't collect rent unless you bought a multifamily property or you rent one of your rooms on Airbnb (NASDAQ:ABNB). You will also encounter various costs like maintenance and repairs that will bite deeper into your profits. Closing costs, home insurance, and property taxes will reduce your profit even more. It's important to keep these expenses and the real return in mind because it's easier to separate a primary residence from an investment. This separation makes it easier for someone to make renovations without feeling guilty. "Ultimately, if you can afford it and don't leave yourself at risk of losing your job, etc., go nuts," one commenter suggested. Trending: With Point, you can However, home renovations do not make as much sense if you feel as if you must stretch your budget to make it work. Taking out a bunch of loans to fund various renovations isn't the right approach, as you will have very little room for error, such as getting laid off or encountering a surprise expense. Lost Opportunities In The Stock Market Although home renovations can improve your quality of life, it's important to consider the lost opportunities in the stock market and similar investment vehicles. Investing $220,000 in the S&P 500 over multiple decades could have multiplied the money. It's best not to cry over spilled milk. That was one of the messages that came up in the comments. However, you also don't want to live in a dilapidated house and avoid making essential repairs just so your portfolio can generate a little extra alpha. If you have sufficient room in your budget and want to make home improvements, it's your money. People invest in the stock market so they have more options in the future. Part of those choices may include home renovations in the present instead of penny-pinching for your entire Are A Part Of Homeownership Renovations are a part of owning a home. Your kitchen, bathroom, and other rooms will endure wear and tear that make home improvements necessary. Some homes can last longer than others before needing renovations, but when you're buying a home that's more than 100 years old, you'll likely have to make some renovations right out of the gate. The Redditor mentioned that the 1909 home had a 40-year-old kitchen, sewer pipes, air conditioning, and other things that needed improvements. We don't have pictures to determine the condition of those rooms, but rooms that haven't been modified in over 40 years likely need some renovations. It's not like the Redditor renovated a kitchen that was two years old just to make it look slightly different or use modern aesthetics. The renovations the Redditor described sound like practical investments that had to be made. Fixer-upper homes have lower asking prices than new homes, and that price difference gives the Redditor flexibility to make the necessary renovations. Read Next: Maximize saving for your retirement and cut down on taxes: . Image: Shutterstock This article This Redditor Debates Renovating Their 1,400-Square-Foot Home—Is It Smart Investing or a Financial Trap? originally appeared on
