Vince Morales vs. Raul Rosas Jr. prediction, pick, start time for UFC on ESPN 64

USA Today

29-03-2025

Vince Morales and Raul Rosas Jr. meet Saturday on the main card of UFC on ESPN 64 at Arena CDMX in Mexico City. Check out this quick breakdown of the matchup from MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom.
Last event: 4-2
UFC main cards, 2025: 25-22-1
Vince Morales vs. Raul Rosas Jr. UFC Mexico preview
Morales (11-9 MMA, 3-7 UFC) is in his second stint in the UFC, but has back-to-back losses since his return and might be being tossed to the wolves here … Rosas (10-1 MMA, 4-1 UFC) has designs still to become the youngest champion in UFC history and has three straight wins, including two for bonuses.
Vince Morales vs. Raul Rosas Jr. UFC Mexico expert pick, prediction
Serving as a potential showcase fight at 135 pounds is a scrap between Raul Rosas Jr. and Vince Morales.
The UFC doesn't go out of their way to try to properly build up a fighter these days, so it's hard to hate them doing it for the 20-year-old Rosas.
And when you look at this fight on paper (especially at first glance), it's difficult to deny that's exactly what the UFC is doing by booking a veteran fighter on a losing skid to make a quick turnaround to fight one of their golden boys at elevation.
I interviewed Morales last week and he appeared to be in great shape and spirits, all things considered. I just hate that the UFC – whether it's Morales here or Steve Erceg in the main event – puts good fighters who do solids for them in incredibly tough spots.
Nevertheless, I still suspect that Morales – despite not training at elevation – may still have the edge when it comes to staying power and stamina.
Aside from the fact that gas never appeared to be an issue for Morales before, the 34-year-old bantamweight is excellent at pacing himself in victory or defeat. Whereas Rosas, who seems hardwired to come out like hell on wheels in Round 1, tends to slow down as the fight wears on or, at the very least, needs pockets to recoup his energy.
With that in mind, this fight could get even more interesting if Morales can survive Rosas's early storm.
I'm not sure if Rosas has the finishing prowess to put away an underrated grappler and wrestler like Morales, so the most likely outcome on paper is a competitive decision win for 'El Niño Problema.'
The potential problem, however, is that I suspect that Morales' underrated grappling game could present issues for Rosas from a stylistic perspective.
Not only has Morales been spending the past couple of years with guys like Aljamain Sterling and Merab Dvalishvili wrestling with him in the training rooms, but 'Vandetta' has also been putting said improvements to practice by submitting UFC-level fighters with his wicked front-choke repertoire.
It'll be the least popular pick you'll see all week, but I'll take a flier on Morales to survive the early storm and lock up a D'Arce choke on a fading Rosas Jr. in Round 3.
Vince Morales vs. Raul Rosas Jr. UFC Mexico odds
The oddsmakers and the public are heavily favoring the Mexican fighter, listing Rosas Jr. -450 and Morales +330 via FanDuel.
Vince Morales vs. Raul Rosas Jr. UFC Mexico start time, how to watch
Morales and Rosas are expected to walk to the cage at approximately 8:15 p.m. ET. The fight airs on ESPN2 and streams on ESPN+.
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie's event hub for UFC on ESPN 64.