What we know about 300ft asteroid that has a chance of crashing into Earth
A freshly spotted asteroid that is up to 300ft wide detected by an automated telescope in December has a small chance of hitting Earth in 2032, scientists have said.
The asteroid has been designated 2024 YR4 and is believed to have a 1-in-83 chance of striking Earth.
Currently 27 million miles from Earth, it's too early to know where it could strike but it has been placed top of impact priority lists and is being scanned by scientists around the world
Such an impact could cause devastating damage, either in the form of an 'airburst' explosion or an explosion on impact.
The asteroid was spotted on 27 December by NASA's Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS).
ATLAS is a warning system for asteroid impacts consisting of four telescopes.
It is designed to offer a minimum of 'several weeks' of warning before the impact of a 300ft asteroid like 2024 YR4.
As telescope technology has improved, the number of asteroids spotted has increased, although the number of space rocks remains the same.
Recently-discovered #asteroid 2024 YR4 may make a very close approach to Earth in 8 years. It is thought to be 40-100 meters wide. Uncertainty is still high and more and more observations are needed confirm this. pic.twitter.com/u8PvZg3jaw
— Tony Dunn (@tony873004) January 28, 2025
The European Space Agency estimates that the asteroid is between 40m (131ft) and 100m (328ft).
That would potentially make the space rock's width similar to the height of Big Ben in London, which is 316ft tall.
The time of closest approach to Earth (when it could potentially impact) is the 22 December, 2032. According to NASA's Center of Near Earth Object studies, it should pass within 66,000 miles of our planet on that day.
The range of uncertainties in the calculation means an impact is possible.
As of this week, the asteroid has a 1.2% chance of hitting Earth, according to the European Space Agency.
In recent history, the 'odds' of asteroids hitting Earth have tended to go down the more that astronomers observe an asteroid.
The asteroid has been ranked as 'level 3' on the Torino Impact Hazard scale - but NASA says this is likely to drop.
NASA describes level 3 asteroids as a "close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers. Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of localised destruction."
It adds: "Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to re-assignment to Level 0. Attention by public and by public officials is merited if the encounter is less than a decade away."
NASA's Atlas says that an 100m asteroid has 10 times the destructive force of the 2021 Tonga volcanic eruption, which caused a large explosion and tsunamis in several countries.
The damage caused by such an explosion would vary depending on where the asteroid hit.
"An asteroid this size impacts Earth on average every few thousand years and could cause severe damage to a local region," the European Space Agency has said. NASA says that the impact could kill up to a million people, "averaged over all possible impact locations".
NASA says, 'These deaths could result from a direct hit or by tsunami (tidal wave) in the event of an ocean strike.'
An asteroid 'blew up' over the Russian town of Chelyabinsk in 2013.
It is thought to have been around 60 feet across.
During the 2013 Chelyabinsk event, 1,500 people were injured and 7,300 buildings damaged by the intense overpressure generated by the shockwave at Earth's surface.
A 5-meter rock is estimated to target Earth once a year, and a 50-meter rock once every thousand years, according to NASA.
Smaller rocks, like the asteroid that exploded over Chelyabinsk, will hit our planet every 10 to 100 years.
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