UFC 318 Co-Main Event Odds, Picks And Predictions: Costa Vs. Kopylov
A middleweight matchup between one fighter looking to end a two-fight losing skid and another competitor hoping to extend a two-fight winning streak serves as the co-main event of Saturday's UFC 318 pay-per-view fight card. In that contest, the No. 13-ranked Paulo Costa meets the No. 14-ranked Roman Kopylov. We preview Costa vs. Kopylov, the penultimate bout on the UFC 318 PPV fight card.
UFC 318 features a trilogy bout in the main event, as Max Holloway and Dustin Poirier meet in the PPV headliner. Holloway's symbolic BMF title is on the line. Meanwhile, the fight is expected to be Poirier's retirement bout.
UFC 318 takes place on Saturday, July 19, at Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana. The UFC 318 main card streams on ESPN+ pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN and early prelims on ESPN+.
UFC 318 Co-Main Event Preview: Costa Vs. Kopylov
NEWARK, NEW JERSEY - JUNE 01: Paulo Costa of Brazil prepares to face Sean Strickland in a ... More middleweight fight during the UFC 302 event at Prudential Center on June 01, 2024 in Newark, New Jersey. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)
Paulo Costa (14-4) was 8-0 and coming off a defense of the Jungle Fight middleweight title when he joined the UFC in 2017. He opened his run with the promotion with four knockouts and one decision. That decision, an August 2019 win over Yoel Romero, earned Costa a shot at Adesanya in September 2020. Adesanya retained his title in that fight, knocking out Costa in the second round.
Costa has not been an active competitor in the UFC. Between 2018 and 2022 he stepped into the Octagon once per year. He did not compete at all in 2023. In 2024, Costa went 0-2, losing a unanimous decision to former UFC middleweight champ Robert Whittaker in February and then dropping a split decision to ex-UFC 185 kingpin Sean Strickland in June.
Costa has not competed since his loss to Strickland at UFC 302.
Costa is 1-4 in his past five UFC outings. His only win during that stretch, which began with the Adesanya loss, was a August 2022 decision win over former UFC middleweight titleholder Luke Rockhold.
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - JANUARY 11: Roman Kopylov of Russia reacts after a TKO victory against Chris ... More Curtis in a middleweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at UFC APEX on January 11, 2025 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)
A former Fight Nights Global middleweight champ, Roman Kopylov (14-3) joined the UFC in 2019 with an 8-0 record. Kopylov had seven straight knockout wins heading into his UFC debut, a fight he lost to Karl Roberson via submission.
COVID-19 and visa issues kept Kopylov out of action until October 2021. When he returned to the Octagon, Kopylov dropped a decision to Albert Duraev.
Kopylov seemed to find his footing after those back-to-back losses. Between September 2022 and September 2023, he went 4-0 with four knockout wins.
That winning streak did not earn Kopylov a spot inside the top 15 of the UFC's middleweight division, but it did get him booked opposite the No. 15 ranked Anthony Hernandez at UFC 298 in February. Hernandez won that fight via second-round submission.
Kopylov came back from that defeat to beat César Almeida at UFC 302. In his most recent outing, Kopylov stopped Chris Curtis via head kick, in a 'Fight of the Night' affair on A UFC Fight Night card in January 2025.
UFC 318 Co-Main Event Betting Lines And Movement: Costa Vs. Kopylov
When the betting lines opened for this fight, Kopylov was the -300 betting favorite over the +250 Costa. The line has shifted. Today, Kopylov is listed at -224, while Costa checks in at +189.
UFC 318 Co-Main Event Tale Of The Tape: Costa Vs. Kopylov
Age: 34
Height: 6'1'
Reach: 82'
Stance: Orthodox
Age: 34
Height: 6'0'
Reach: 75'
Stance: Southpaw
UFC 318 Co-Main Event Predictions And Picks: Costa Vs. Kopylov
Paulo Costa is a well-rounded fighter. However, he doesn't often use his complete skill set. Instead, he looks to engage in striking wars, landing an average of 6.22 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 6.56 strikes per minute, which is not a great sign against a kickboxer like Kopylov.
If Costa looks to get the fight to the mat, he has a chance to pick up the win on Saturday, but he has not earned a takedown since he defeated Yoel Romero by decision in 2019.
Costa is a resilient fighter, so it's likely this one goes the distance, but look for the better striker, which is Kopylov, to win the decision.
UFC 318 Pay-Per-View Card: Holloway Vs. Poirier 3
Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier - Lightweight - For Holloway's BMF title
Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov - Middleweight
Kevin Holland vs. Daniel Rodriguez - Welterweight
Dan Ige vs. Patricio 'Pitbull' Freire - Featherweight
Michael Johnson vs. Daniel Zellhuber - Lightweight
UFC 318 Preliminary Fight Card: Holloway Vs. Poirier 3
Kyler Phillips vs. Vinicius Oliveira - Bantamweight
Marvin Vettori vs. Brendan Allen - Middleweight
Francisco Prado vs. Nikolay Veretennikov - Welterweight
Ateba Gautier vs. Robert Valentin - Middleweight
UFC 318 Early Prelims Fight Card: Holloway Vs. Poirier 3
Adam Fugitt vs. Islam Dulatov - Welterweight
Jimmy Crute vs. Marcin Prachnio - Light Heavyweight
Ryan Spann vs. Lukasz Brzeski - Heavyweight
Brunno Ferreira vs. Jackson McVey - Middleweight
Carli Judice vs. Nicolle Caliari - Women's Flyweight
We will have more on the UFC 318 co-main event, Costa vs. Kopylov, as fight night nears, as well as live results, reactions, highlights and more for the UFC 318 pay-per-view card on fight night.
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