
China's rise is exposing the cost of America's alliance with Israel
As American global dominance frays after three decades of unipolarity, China's steady rise as an economic, military and diplomatic soft power signals a tectonic shift in the global order.
At the same time, the US continues to entangle itself in regional struggles - particularly in the Middle East - that no longer yield strategic dividends but instead deepen perceptions of decline.
Nowhere is this clearer than in America's unwavering support for Israel, especially after the 7 October attack, which has begun to reshape global perceptions of the legitimacy of both US power and the Zionist enterprise.
Together, these developments mark the decline of US primacy and the emergence of a new international order no longer shaped solely by American imperial dominance.
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Strategic patience
Since the end of the Cold War, China has pursued a long-term strategy of "strategic patience" - a multidimensional approach that emphasises economic growth, military modernisation and multilateral engagement.
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is the flagship of this strategy, aiming to weave a web of infrastructure, trade and investment agreements across Eurasia, Africa and Latin America.
The initiative has allowed China not only to secure vital resources and influence global trade routes, but also to export its development model while bypassing western-dominated institutions.
China's explosive growth has allowed it to secure vital resources, shape global trade routes and bypass western-dominated institutions
China's economic growth has been staggering. In 1992, its GDP was just 6 percent of that of the US, at $367bn, while the US stood at $6.52 trillion. Today, it exceeds 65 percent, at $20 trillion compared with $30 trillion for the US.
This explosive growth has funded an equally impressive military modernisation programme. While China has not yet supplanted the US as the dominant global military power, it increasingly asserts itself regionally, particularly in the South and East China Seas.
With a military doctrine focused on anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities, China seeks to deter US intervention near its borders - an essential step towards becoming the dominant power in East Asia.
In parallel, China has actively contributed to alternative international institutions that challenge western hegemony.
Through Brics, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), and financial bodies such as the New Development Bank, China and its partners are steadily constructing a multipolar world order - one that erodes the primacy of the US-led liberal international system.
US grand strategy
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the US emerged as the world's sole superpower - a unipolar moment it was determined to extend indefinitely.
Since 1991, US grand strategy has revolved around preventing the rise of peer competitors, especially in the world's most critical regions: East Asia, Europe, and the Persian Gulf-Middle East.
The logic was simple: if no other power became dominant in its own region, none could challenge American global supremacy.
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To that end, the US pursued two major policies to weaken its potential rivals in Europe and East Asia - both of which ultimately failed.
In Europe, it expanded Nato eastward from 16 members in 1991 to 32 today, attempting to contain or politically transform Russia. The inclusion of post-Soviet states and support for pro-western movements such as the "colour revolutions" were intended to undermine Moscow's influence.
Instead, these actions triggered a powerful backlash. Viewing Nato enlargement as an existential threat, Russia reasserted itself, culminating in the 2022 invasion of Ukraine - a conflict that has shifted in Moscow's favour despite massive western military aid and economic support for Kyiv.
Since the 1990s, the US has pursued a policy of engagement with China, assuming that economic integration would inevitably liberalise the Chinese political system and bind it to the US-led international order.
China was admitted to the World Trade Organization in 2001 and became a hub for US and global investment. But rather than transforming into a neoliberal democracy, China retained its authoritarian governance structure while amassing extraordinary economic wealth and technological power.
This, in turn, enabled a surge in military spending and regional assertiveness - precisely what Washington had hoped to prevent.
Imperial overreach
The third pillar of US hegemony lies in the Persian Gulf and the broader Middle East. Control over this oil-rich region has long been central to US strategic planning - not only for energy access but to maintain the primacy of the US dollar.
After its 1971 delinking from gold, the dollar's status as the global reserve currency was sustained by petrodollar recycling. Ensuring that oil is traded in dollars and that regional regimes remain friendly and under American influence has been critical.
After 9/11, US foreign policy took an ambitious and hubristic turn towards social engineering. It invaded Afghanistan and Iraq under the banner of democratisation, regime change and national security.
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As former Nato commander General Wesley Clark revealed in 2003, the Pentagon had plans to attack seven Muslim countries in five years: Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Iran.
But these grand designs unravelled in the deserts and mountains of the region. The US was defeated in both Iraq and Afghanistan, despite massive military expenditures and the loss of thousands of soldiers.
The dream of remaking the Middle East in America's image collapsed into chaos, insurgency and failure.
Strategic liability
A central dimension of US Middle East policy has always revolved around its relationship with Israel.
Since Israel's 1967 victory over three Arab states, it has been viewed by the American establishment as a valuable strategic ally.
But Israel is not merely a foreign policy concern; it is deeply embedded in American domestic politics through the influence of the Israel lobby.
The rise of the neoconservatives in the early 2000s - figures such as Paul Wolfowitz, Douglas Feith, Scooter Libby, Elliott Abrams and Richard Perle - marked the increasing convergence of US strategic goals with those of the Israeli and Zionist-American right.
Ever since, American "Israel-firsters" have not merely knocked at the door of policymaking; they now occupy multiple seats at the table.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's 2023 speech at the UN encapsulated Israel's ambitions. Promoting the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), Netanyahu positioned Israel as a central node in global trade and infrastructure, while completely ignoring the Palestinians.
The speech embodied Israel's hegemonic aspirations and bid to solidify normalisation with Arab and Islamic states, particularly Saudi Arabia, Indonesia and Pakistan.
But this disregard helped provoke the 7 October 2023 attack by Hamas - an operation that shattered the illusion of Israeli invincibility and triggered a cascade of strategic losses for the Zionist project.
Historic rupture
The Toufan al-Aqsa operation marked a historic rupture in the region's balance of power.
Despite possessing one of the most technologically advanced armies in the world and a vast intelligence apparatus, the Zionist regime was caught entirely off guard. The operation exposed deep failures in Israel's deterrence strategy, military doctrine and internal cohesion.
In response, Israel launched one of the most devastating genocidal campaigns in modern history, reducing Gaza's civilian infrastructure to rubble.
Despite 21 months of bombing, siege and genocide, the Palestinian resistance remains undefeated - waging a war of attrition and negotiating from a position of resilience
Tens of thousands of Palestinians were killed - two-thirds of them women and children - while hundreds of thousands were injured and millions displaced.
Yet despite 21 months of continuous bombing, siege and genocide, the Palestinian resistance remains undefeated. It continues a painful war of attrition and engages in negotiations from a position of resilience.
Israel's military goal of achieving "total victory" by dismantling Hamas, exiling its leaders or disarming its military structures remains unrealised.
This has led to a strategic crisis. Israel's deterrence doctrine - inflicting overwhelming punishment to deter adversaries - has failed. Its regional image has eroded.
Its intelligence services have lost credibility. Social cohesion within Israel has fractured under the weight of prolonged war and economic strain. Military morale has plummeted, while thousands of Israelis have either been displaced or emigrated due to growing instability.
Internationally, Israel's narrative of victimhood has crumbled. Graphic footage of massacres, starvation and mass destruction has flooded social media.
Public opinion has shifted dramatically, particularly in the US and Europe, with millions taking to the streets - including significant numbers of Jewish youth - to stand in solidarity with Palestinians.
Major institutions such as the International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court have taken unprecedented steps, issuing genocide warnings and arrest warrants for senior Israeli officials, including Netanyahu.
Calls for boycott, divestment and sanctions are growing. The economy has suffered major setbacks, tourism has collapsed, and reverse migration threatens long-term demographic stability.
Fractured alliance
While Washington and Tel Aviv share strategic aims - defeating Palestinian resistance, containing Iran and preserving regional primacy - they diverge in their long-term goals.
Israel seeks regional hegemony, driven by maximalist visions such as the "Greater Israel" project.
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This includes expanding settlements in the West Bank, as championed by extremist cabinet member Bezalel Smotrich, and provocative moves around the al-Aqsa compound, pushed by racist minister Itamar Ben Gvir.
The destruction of Gaza and escalating settler violence in the West Bank appear calculated to induce mass Palestinian expulsion to "solve" Israel's demographic dilemma and avoid permanent apartheid.
The US, by contrast, prefers managed stability - weakening Iran, securing energy markets, curbing Russian and Chinese influence, and preserving a compliant regional security order with allies like Israel and Saudi Arabia.
With Israel's failure to subdue the resistance militarily, Washington aims to end the war while still realising its objectives and preserving the regional order.
New order
The rise of Trump's nativist "Maga" movement, the collapse of US strategic credibility, the emergence of China as a peer competitor, and the regional unravelling of Israeli deterrence have together created an opening for a historic reorientation of global power.
For the Arab and Muslim world, this moment presents an urgent imperative: to break free from foreign domination and Zionist hegemonic control.
The western-led international system has shown itself unwilling or unable to hold Israel accountable for its crimes - despite overwhelming evidence of genocide, war crimes and ethnic cleansing.
This exposes a structurally unjust order in which sheer power, not law, determines legitimacy. The fundamental interest of Arab and Muslim peoples lies in dismantling this system and moving towards a multipolar order grounded in justice, sovereignty and human dignity.
More critically, the unifying struggle today must be the eradication of foreign domination and Zionist influence. Without this, no revival - whether based on democracy, economic reform, scientific progress, Islamic governance or civilisational renewal - can succeed.
For the Arab and Muslim world, this moment presents an urgent imperative: to break free from foreign domination and Zionist hegemonic control
Israeli hegemony, backed by US military, political and financial support, is designed precisely to thwart any movement towards independence, unity or development. It is a blockade against the future.
Only by confronting and dismantling these structures of domination can the region begin a genuine renaissance. Sovereignty and self-determination cannot coexist with fragmentation, dependency and occupation. This struggle must take precedence over all others - not as a vague ideal, but as a strategic necessity.
The twilight of American primacy may not come overnight, but it is clearly underway.
Its uncritical alignment with Israeli extremism risks sparking another wave of regional unrest - an Arab Spring 2.0 - directed not only at domestic autocrats, but also at dismantling Zionist racist structures and the US imperial order that sustains them.
In this critical moment, the peoples of the Arab and Muslim world must chart a new course - one that asserts agency, reclaims sovereignty and redefines their place in a just and multipolar global order.
The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.
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