10 Days To Empty: How Vulnerable Is Taiwan's Energy Supply To A China Blockade?
Taiwan would exhaust its natural gas reserves in just 10 days if China imposed a maritime blockade, according to a new report by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Washington-based think tank. The report paints a stark picture of Taiwan's vulnerability in the event of a Chinese military blockade, concluding that the island's coal reserves would last about seven weeks, and oil supplies could run out in roughly 20 weeks.
The findings come amid heightened tensions in the Taiwan Strait and follow recent Chinese military exercises that appeared to simulate blockades and attacks on Taiwan's energy infrastructure.
Why Does This Matter?
Taiwan is heavily dependent on energy imports, sourcing nearly 98% of its fuel from overseas, according to the US International Trade Administration. Natural gas alone powers about 40% of Taiwan's electricity generation, much of it delivered via liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments. If Beijing were to seal off key maritime gateways, the report suggests Taipei would quickly face an energy crisis- not just in military terms but across homes, hospitals, factories and data centres.
What Did The Study Find?
The report ran 26 war-gaming scenarios to simulate how a Chinese blockade of Taiwan might play out and how the island and its allies could respond. The study concluded that a blockade would not be a 'low-cost, low-risk" strategy for Beijing. In most simulations, casualties were high on all sides and the blockade frequently escalated into a broader regional conflict. In two of the most extreme scenarios- labelled 'maximum escalation"- the United States intervened militarily, launching strikes on mainland China while Chinese missiles retaliated by targeting US bases in Guam and Japan. The report also argued that a blockade would make for a poor prelude to invasion as the aggressive move would likely deplete key Chinese military assets and alert other countries, strengthening international resistance.
Can Taiwan Be Resupplied Like Ukraine?
Not easily. The authors- Col Mark Cancian (retired), Matthew Cancian and Eric Heginbotham- warned that applying a 'Ukraine model" of supplying weapons and aid to Taiwan during a crisis would likely fall short. The report said, 'A 'Ukraine strategy' was attractive but insufficient. Taiwan's needs are too great, and in most scenarios, China's blockade was too tight." Even when the US did manage to escort supply convoys through the blockade, the missions were costly and highly risky, with several involving combat scenarios against Chinese forces.
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