Why India's Airbase In Tajikistan Should Worry Pakistan

News18

06-05-2025

Last Updated:
While the government has refrained from officially labelling the airbase in Tajikistan as an operational base, its potential is unmistakable.
As tensions rise following the Pahalgam terrorist attack, India is signaling a tougher stance with Prime Minister Narendra Modi granting the Army full 'operational freedom" to decide how, when, and where it retaliates. But beyond immediate military reprisal, a lesser-known factor is casting a long shadow over South Asia's strategic equation: a remote airbase in the mountains of Tajikistan, quietly upgraded by India, and increasingly viewed as a geopolitical pressure point, especially for Pakistan.
The Ayni Airbase
Tucked just 15 kilometres west of Dushanbe, the capital of Tajikistan, the Ayni Airbase – once a crumbling relic of the Soviet era – has emerged as one of India's most strategically significant outposts. Dormant after Tajikistan's civil war in the 1990s, the base was revitalised thanks to a $70 million investment by India beginning in 2002, at the height of the US-led war on terror in nearby Afghanistan.
By 2010, India had extended the runway to 3,200 metres, constructed hardened shelters, fuel depots, air traffic control infrastructure, and made the base capable of supporting heavy-lift aircraft like the Ilyushin-76 and multirole fighters such as the Sukhoi Su-30MKI. Although the Tajik government maintains that no foreign military operates from its soil, satellite imagery, regional reports, and military analysts suggest that Indian Air Force personnel – engineers, technicians, and security staff – have maintained a presence at Ayni for years.
While the Centre has refrained from officially labelling Ayni as an operational base, its potential is unmistakable. Located within striking distance of Pakistan's western borders, including the troubled provinces of Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the base offers India a launchpad to project power deep into the region. In the event of a wider conflict, India could apply military pressure not just from the eastern front through Kashmir, but from the northwest – forcing Pakistan to recalibrate its entire defence posture.
Experts argue that the mere presence of Indian capability in Central Asia compels Islamabad to stretch its limited air defence and surveillance assets, possibly weakening its eastern preparedness. There are growing concerns in Pakistan's defence circles that the Ayni base could serve as a launch point for reconnaissance missions, drone strikes, or even limited surgical air operations – especially in the restive, insurgency-hit western provinces.
But the reach of Ayni extends beyond Pakistan. Tajikistan shares a border with China's sensitive Xinjiang province. Following the 2020 Galwan Valley clash with Chinese troops, India's interest in monitoring Chinese military activity near its western theater has grown. The Ayni base provides a rare and advantageous northern vantage point – one that could prove crucial in an extended confrontation.
Additionally, with the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) snaking through Balochistan and linking to the Gwadar port, India's strategic presence near the region introduces a layer of complication for the heavily guarded economic lifeline of both Beijing and Islamabad.
The Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan has given rise to renewed concerns over the resurgence of terror outfits like the Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K) and Al-Qaeda. Ayni is also well-positioned to support surveillance and humanitarian evacuation operations in Afghanistan, as it reportedly did when India airlifted citizens and diplomatic staff following the Taliban's takeover in 2021.
Alongside Ayni, India has also reportedly used the Farkhor Airbase, located near the Afghan border, and further deployed Sukhoi Su-30MKI fighters in these bases.
India's involvement in Ayni also cements its growing influence in Central Asia, a region traditionally dominated by Russia and, more recently, China through its Belt and Road Initiative. By anchoring itself in Tajikistan, India not only reinforces its counterterrorism capabilities but also ensures it has a stake in Central Asian politics, counterbalancing Chinese and Russian leverage.
From Pakistan's perspective, Ayni represents a silent encirclement strategy. Already under pressure in Kashmir, the potential for a second axis of military pressure from the north could tilt the strategic balance significantly. Intelligence operations from this base could monitor movements near Pakistan's nuclear installations, many of which are located in its western provinces. Moreover, as Baloch separatist activity grows and Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) intensifies attacks, the threat of Indian eyes and ears operating from across the Tajik frontier is a serious concern for Islamabad.
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