National University of Singapore's Energy Studies Institute and FutureScaleX Release New Policy Brief on U.S. Climate Policy Reversal and Asia's Growing CCS Opportunity
If U.S. policy incentives roll back, only the highest-purity emitters can achieve viable payback while Asia's stable regulations and maturing innovation ecosystem create a more attractive environment for CCS investment. Share
Titled 'What the Trump Presidency Means for CCS: Policy Shifts and Opportunities for Asia,' the brief provides new analysis of stalled U.S. project pipelines, modeling on the economic impact of new import tariffs, and a growing innovation gap that now favors East Asia.
'This policy brief sheds light on how consistent long-term policy frameworks and regional collaboration can enhance Asia's position in global carbon management,' said Dr. Sita Rahmani, Research Fellow at NUS ESI. 'The commitment to low-carbon industry development in Asia should remain unwavering, despite policy changes in other regions.'
Key insights include:
Policy Withdrawal: Executive Order 14154 and proposed repeal of the 45Q tax credit have placed over 75 U.S. CCS projects under review or delay.
Executive Order 14154 and proposed repeal of the 45Q tax credit have placed over 75 U.S. CCS projects under review or delay. Tariff Impact: Modeling shows a significant cost increase for CCS projects in the U.S. due to rising input tariffs—particularly for steel and cement-based infrastructure.
Modeling shows a significant cost increase for CCS projects in the U.S. due to rising input tariffs—particularly for steel and cement-based infrastructure. Innovation Shift: Asia now accounts for 74% of global CCS patents as of 2024, with China, Korea, and Japan accelerating R&D and deployment.
Asia now accounts for 74% of global CCS patents as of 2024, with China, Korea, and Japan accelerating R&D and deployment. Strategic Outlook: Asia's consistent policy direction, innovation capacity, and growing cross-border CCS cooperation signal its rising influence on the global stage.
'If U.S. policy incentives are rolled back, Asia won't just fill the void, it will accelerate past,' said Kevin Pang, Senior Vice President at FutureScaleX and co-author of the brief. 'Our modeling shows that without predictable U.S. support, only the highest-purity emitters can achieve viable payback while Asia's stable regulations and maturing innovation ecosystem create a more attractive environment for CCS investment.'
The policy brief was co-authored by Dr. Sita Rahmani and Shee Jia Chew of NUS ESI and Kevin Pang and Pardeep Pal of FutureScaleX, with contributions from additional technical analysts.
The full brief is available at: https://esi.nus.edu.sg/docs/default-source/esi-policy-briefs/esi-pb-82_what-the-trump-presidency-means-for-ccs.pdf?sfvrsn=16a49808_1
About NUS ESI
The Energy Studies Institute (ESI) is a multi-disciplinary energy policy research institute within the National University of Singapore (NUS). We conduct research on energy policies maintaining focus on national, regional and global implications. We promote discussion and advance collective understanding on issues related to energy policy development. http://www.esi.nus.edu.sg/
About FutureScaleX
FutureScaleX is a global research and advisory firm specializing in the commercial viability of emerging opportunities amid uncertainties and disruptive innovation. In a world navigating multiple transitions, we help organizations make informed investment and innovation decisions that drive sustainable, scalable growth. https://futurescalex.com/
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