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India must stand up to Trump's bullying ways, no matter the price
Shyam Saran
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The past week has been a wakeup call for India. Optimistic assumptions of an upward trajectory in India-United States partnership during Donald Trump's second presidency have been rudely shattered by a 25 per cent tariff on his 'friend' India, threats of unspecified penalties for buying oil and weapons from Russia and petroleum products from Iran, and for being a member of Brics Plus. He has also disparaged the Indian economy as a dead weight bound to go down the drain, just as he expects his erstwhile friend Russia to do. This is no longer a trade and tariff war —
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Time of India
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Mint
22 minutes ago
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Nifty 50, Sensex today: What to expect from Indian stock market in trade on August 18 after Trump-Putin meeting
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Here's what to expect from Sensex, Nifty 50, and Bank Nifty today: Sensex has formed reversal patterns on daily and intraday charts, which are largely positive. Additionally, a bullish candle was formed on the weekly charts, indicating the continuation of the pullback in the near future. 'We believe that 80,300 will act as a key support zone for short-term traders. As long as Sensex trades above this level, the bullish sentiment is likely to continue. On the higher side, 80,900 would be the immediate resistance zone for the bulls. A successful breakout above 80,900 could push the index towards 81,500 - 81,800,' said Amol Athawale, VP Technical Research, Kotak Securities. However, below 80,300, he believes market sentiment could turn negative and Sensex could then retest levels around 79,800. Further downside may also continue, potentially dragging the index to 79,300 - 79.100. In the derivatives segment, the highest Nifty call open interest was recorded at the 24,700 strike, while the highest put open interest was concentrated at the 24,600 strike. 'This setup suggests that resistance remains near 24,700; however, traders are eyeing potential upside, with a sustained close above this level essential to maintain bullish momentum,' said Amruta Shinde, Technical & Derivative Analyst at Choice Equity Broking. Nifty 50 index ended its six-week losing streak and formed a bullish candle on the weekly chart, closing above both its 100-day and 21-week EMAs, signaling early signs of bottoming out and a potential reversal. 'A small positive candle was formed on the daily chart with minor upper shadow. Technically, the market action signals range bound action in the market. Nifty on the weekly chart formed a reasonable positive candle that reversed the previous six losing weeks. Placement of cluster supports around 24,300 - 24,200 levels could offer strong support on any weakness from here. However, a sustainable upmove above the hurdle of 24,700 could open further upside towards the 25,000 mark in the near term,' said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities. Nilesh Jain, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research Analyst (Equity Research), Centrum Broking noted that the Nifty 50 index reclaimed its 100-DMA at 24,560, which will now serve as an immediate support. 'However, over the past month, the Nifty 50 has struggled to cross its short-term 21-DMA at 24,770. A decisive move above this level is crucial to unlock further upside towards 25,000. The RSI has turned higher to 44, indicating improving momentum, while the MACD remains below the zero line. Although sentiment has improved, a clear confirmation of a trend reversal is still awaited,' Jain said. Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group said that the Nifty 50 index continues to hold above the 200-day EMA near 24,200, reinforcing structural strength. 'On the upside, the 24,800 – 24,840 zone, which coincides with the 55-day EMA and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, remains a strong resistance. A decisive breakout above this range could push the index toward 25,000. On the downside, 24,450 is immediate support, with 24,200 as the next level if breached. Overall, a buy-on-dips strategy remains prudent,' said Singhania. According to VLA Ambala, Co-Founder of Stock Market Today, Nifty 50 may find support near 24,540 and 24,500, and meet resistance near 24,750 and 24,830 in today's market session. Bank Nifty index gained 160.40 points, or 0.29%, to close at 55,341.85 on Thursday, forming a bullish candle on the daily chart, indicating consolidation around the 100-day EMA. On the weekly chart, the index formed a small-bodied bullish candle with a slight upper shadow, highlighting the absence of strong directional momentum. 'Bank Nifty index remains below both its 20-day and 50-day EMAs, suggesting continued weakness in the overall trend structure. Momentum indicators echo this lack of conviction, with the daily RSI moving sideways and showing no clear signs of a breakout. Looking ahead, the 55,700 – 55,800 zone is expected to act as a key resistance area, while support lies in the 54,900 – 54,800 range,' said Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities. A sustained move beyond either of these boundaries could set the stage for a more directional move, he added. Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities said that the Bank Nifty is drawing support from the 55,000 zone, where the 100-SMA is currently placed. However, it remains capped beneath the 9-EMA, 20-SMA, and 50-SMA, all of which are sloping downward and limiting the scope for a meaningful rebound. 'For now, 55,000 serves as the immediate support, followed by 54,850 in the event of further weakness. Unless the index manages to reclaim the overhead resistance cluster, Bank Nifty is likely to remain range-bound, with a slightly positive outlook as long as the 100-SMA continues to provide support,' Mehra said. Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivative Research, Asit C. Mehta Investment Intermediates Ltd. highlighted that the 34-DEMA hurdle, placed near 55,960, will act as major resistance in the short term for Bank Nifty. 'On the downside, multiple support zones are placed near 54,900. As long as Bank Nifty holds above this level, a short-term pullback remains feasible. Hence, short-term traders are advised to follow a buy-on-dips strategy,' Yedve said. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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First Post
22 minutes ago
- First Post
India's April-July exports to US 7 times faster than overall growth: Trump tariff effect?
Indian exports to the US surged in recent months as companies rushed shipments ahead of potential tariff hikes announced by Donald Trump, a report said. Between April and July, exports to the US grew seven times faster than overall export growth. Majority of Indian exports to the US have been hit by tariffs. Reuters US President Donald Trump's aggressive tariff threats against India appear to have triggered a rush among Indian exporters to ship consignments early, pushing exports to the US to grow at a far quicker pace than overall trade, according to a report from The Times of India. With Trump imposing a 25 per cent reciprocal tariff and warning of an additional penalty linked to India's oil trade with Russia, exports to the US during April–July expanded seven times faster than overall growth. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD In April, exporters rushed to beat reciprocal tariffs, and a similar frontloading is now evident ahead of the 27 August deadline for a further 25 per cent levy. As a result, shipments to the US rose 21 per cent to $33.5 billion during April–July, compared with overall exports rising just 3 per cent to $149.2 billion, according to commerce department data. With the US now accounting for 22 per cent of India's shipments, exporters face higher vulnerability to a potential 50 per cent duty. Still, the surge in exports has given some companies the room to offer discounts if required. 'We have spent the last week talking to buyers and in case of old buyers we are looking at some additional discount to retain the business even if it means that we have to pay out of our pockets for sometime. 'Although official negotiations with the US (scheduled to start Aug 25) have been postponed, we expect some breakthrough in the forthcoming weeks,' said Sudhir Sekhri, chairman of the Apparel Export Promotion Council (AEPC), as quoted by TOI. Exporters said they had managed to absorb the impact of the first 25 per cent duty already in place, often by sharing costs with buyers and fast-tracking consignments before deadlines. For the next round, some contracts now include clauses stating that discounts will not apply if the additional levy is lifted. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Industry leaders, however, warn that a 50 per cent tariff would be unsustainable. 'We operate on a very thin margin of 5-7%, where is the question of offering steep discounts to offset the impact of 25% additional duty? We can sacrifice our profits but can't sustain the business with losses,' said Rajendra Kumar Jalan, chairman of the Council for Leather Exports, adding that ongoing US-Russia talks have offered a ray of hope that the penalty may not be enforced.
