Libman: Much at stake for Quebec party leaders in Arthabaska byelection

Montreal Gazette

4 days ago

Many Gazette readers might have trouble locating the largely rural Arthabaska riding on a map, but we'll be hearing a lot about it in the days ahead. Located between Montreal and Quebec City, advance voting begins there this weekend for an Aug. 11 byelection to replace Coalition Avenir Québec MNA Eric Lefebvre, a recently elected federal Conservative MP.
The byelection is a critical test for Quebec's main political parties and their leaders.
Over the past 25 years, the riding has shifted between the Parti Québécois, Liberals, Action démocratique and CAQ. And this byelection offers the possibility of a breakthrough for the provincial Conservatives, with party leader Éric Duhaime potentially making his grand entrance into the National Assembly.
The Conservatives finished second here in the 2022 vote with an unknown candidate. Duhaime is the standard bearer this time, and polls show his party neck and neck with the PQ. At a candidates debate last week, he was the centre of attention and primary target of the others, usually the sign of a front-runner. The former radio shock jock has the gift of the gab and would light things up in the assembly.
This is Duhaime's best shot. If he doesn't win, the Quebec Conservative Party he has resurrected over the past few years will likely go back in hibernation.
For the PQ, anything short of a win will be interpreted as a stalling of the party's momentum, after leading in the polls for almost two years now and having won the last two byelections (Jean-Talon and Terrebonne). PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon is as confident now as Pierre Poilievre was a year ago in the federal campaign — looking in the mirror, and believing the person staring back at him is the future premier ministre.
The byelection will also be the first electoral test for the Liberals since choosing former MP Pablo Rodriguez as leader. There are genuine concerns about his ability to make inroads in the regions. If they fare poorly in Arthabaska — a 97 per cent francophone mother-tongue riding — questions may bubble up as to whether they made a mistake in not opting for Charles Milliard or Karl Blackburn.
When asked about the regions, Rodriguez, who was a child refugee from Argentina, talks about growing up in Sherbrooke — which happens to be just south of Arthabaska. We'll see. At last week's debate, the Liberal candidate in the riding also had to fend off criticism about Rodriguez's role in the Justin Trudeau regime regarding the exaggerated influx of newcomers.
As for the CAQ, it has won this riding convincingly in all five elections since the party's founding in 2012. It will likely be a very different story this time. This week's news that Quebec's auditor general is probing millions in provincial subsidies to the electric battery industry (Northvolt and Lion Electric) is another blow to a government that appears to be falling apart at the seams amid other financial fiascos like SAAQclic and Santé Québec.
It's too early to call this byelection a foreshadowing of the general election that's still over a year away. Nonetheless, the results could unleash internal party tensions at the CAQ. François Legault's leadership hasn't yet been challenged from within, but you can bet his MNAs are hearing considerable grumpiness from voters during the summer break as they spend more time in their ridings.
Legault seems desperately hoping for a Hail Mary with a cabinet shuffle in the fall, which he (oddly) advertised well in advance. If the byelection goes sour in a riding his party has dominated for over a decade, and his rearranging of the cabinet chairs doesn't prompt any meaningful bump in support, he will soon have an important decision to make about his future.
For a seemingly nondescript byelection in the dog days of August, there are certainly many moving parts, with potentially consequential spinoffs.