The Moscow Times: The Kremlin's Political Influence In Iran, And In The Middle East As A Whole, Is Reaching Zero

Memri

2 days ago

On July 14, 2025, The Moscow Times published an article stating that the Kremlin's political influence in Iran, and in the Middle East as a whole, is reaching zero. The article concluded that Russia has no leverage over the regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran and that there is no chance that mediation attempts will be perceived in Tehran and other capitals of the world as potentially effective.
Vladimir Putin held talks in the Kremlin with President of the Islamic Republic of Iran Masoud Pezeshkian, who arrived in Russia on an official visit, on January 17, 2025. (Source: Kremlin.ru)
Following are excerpts of The Moscow Times's article:[1]
"Iranians Don't Trust Russia"
"Reading the news, one might have the impression that Russia plays some important role in rectifying the problems of Iran's relations with the outside world.
"Last week, French President Emmanuel Macron announced his intention to maintain contacts with Putin for the sake of resolving the Iranian situation. U.S. President Donald Trump discussed the Iranian issue with Putin. Iranian President Pezeshkian also came to Moscow, however no specific results of his visits were reported.
"All these messages and contacts, nonetheless, prompt an unbiased observer to suspect the participants of such actions of wishful thinking. Russia's real capabilities in Iran leave much to be desired.
"The Kremlin's political influence in Iran, and in the Middle East as a whole, is reaching zero, and Tehran is no longer shy about discussing this openly...
"Iranian leaders believe that Moscow betrayed Iran's interests in Syria when it refused to support President Assad's regime. They blame Russia for breaking its promises to supply modern fighter jets and air defense systems to Iran and never tire of reminding how Russia supported anti-Iranian sanctions at the UN. Iranians associate plans to restore their military potential after 12-days-long Israeli airstrikes not with Russia, but with China.
"Furthermore, public opinion in Iran has long been motivated by mistrust of the attempts of the 'northern neighbor' [Russia], which they still cannot forgive for the seizure of Iranian lands under the 19th century Gulistan and Turkmenchay treaties,[2] to create Soviet republics on Iranian territory back in the 1920s and after World War II... Iranians don't trust Russia, and the war criminals from the Kremlin cannot claim the role of mediator in any political settlement."
"Russia Has No Leverages Over The Regime Of The Islamic Republic Of Iran"
"Hypothetically speaking, Russia's involvement in the Iranian economy could be perceived as a factor of influence, however even in this area we are too dealing not with the dynamic development of trade ties and the implementation of real projects, but with a selection of good wishes that politicians and pro-government media reiterate from year to year.
"According to official data, trade turnover between the two countries is gradually growing and reached $4.8 billion a year in 2024. But this is half as much as Russia's trade with the United Arab Emirates and more than 10 times less than that with Turkey. In its turn, Iran's [trade] turnover with Turkey is two and a half times higher than that with Russia.
"When the head of the Iran-Russia Joint Chamber of Commerce, Hadi Tizhoush Taban, said last year that Russia had become the largest foreign investor in Iran, it was not an evidence of large investments on part of Russian companies in his country, but an evidence of the miniscule volumes of investments from other states due to international sanctions. Back then, Taban referred to the fact that the Russian side invested $2.7 billion SD in two oil projects, which constituted 45 percent of all foreign investments. In fact, these were Lukoil's[3] expenditures on long-standing projects that were abandoned by the Russian company when Iran became targeted by sanctions.
"The many-times reiterated statements that Russia purportedly plans to invest $8 billion in gas projects in Iran are not supported by facts. The 'strategic memorandum' on future supplies of Russian gas to Iran signed last year by Gazprom[4] and the National Iranian Gas Company does not provide for any actual participants' obligations, and no work is being done in this direction either in Moscow or Tehran, not to mention Baku, which must 'greenlight' the transit of gas supplies.
"The conclusion is unambiguous: Russia has no leverages over the regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and there is no chance that mediation attempts will be perceived in Tehran and other capitals of the world as potentially effective.
"Let's leave speculation about Russia's great role in the Near and Middle East to Putin's propagandists."