‘Morally Offensive and Fiscally Reckless': 3 Writers on Trump's Big Gamble

New York Times

17-07-2025

Frank Bruni, a contributing Opinion writer, hosted a written online conversation with Nate Silver, the author of 'On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything' and the newsletter Silver Bulletin, and Lis Smith, a Democratic communications strategist and author of the memoir 'Any Given Tuesday: A Political Love Story,' to discuss the aftermath of the passage of President Trump's One Big, Beautiful Bill.
Frank Bruni: Let's start with that megabill, the bigness of which made the consequences of its enactment hard to digest quickly. Now that we've had time to, er, chew it over, I'm wondering if you think Democrats are right to say — to hope — that it gives them a whole new traction in next year's midterms.
I mean, the most significant Medicaid cuts kick in after that point. Could Trump and other Republicans avoid paying a price for them in 2026? Or did they get much too cute in constructing the legislation and building in that delay and create the possibility of disaster for themselves in both 2026 and 2028, when the bill's effect on Medicaid, as well as on other parts of the safety net, will have taken hold?
Lis Smith: If history is any guide, Republicans will pay a price for these cuts in the midterms. In 2010, Democrats got destroyed for passing Obamacare, even though it would be years until it was fully implemented. In 2018, Republicans were punished just for trying to gut it. Voters don't like politicians messing with their health care. They have been pretty consistent in sending that message.
I'd argue that Democrats have an even more potent message in 2026 — it's not just that Republicans are messing with health care, it's that they are cutting it to fund tax cuts for the richest Americans.
Nate Silver: What I wonder about is Democrats' ability to sustain focus on any given issue. At the risk of overextrapolating from my home turf in New York, Zohran Mamdani just won a massive upset in the Democratic mayoral primary by focusing on affordability. And a message on the Big, Beautiful Bill could play into that. But the Democratic base is often more engaged by culture war issues, or by messages that are about Trump specifically — and Trump isn't on the ballot in 2026 — rather than Republicans broadly. The polls suggest that the Big, Beautiful Bill is extremely unpopular, but a lot of those negative views are 1) among people who are extremely politically engaged and already a core Democratic constituency, or 2) snap opinions among the disengaged that are subject to change. Democrats will need to ensure that voters are still thinking about the bill next November, and tying it to actual or potential changes that affect them directly and adversely.
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