Why Putin thinks Trump's Russia tariffs are a bluff

Spectator

15 hours ago

Moscow's response to the latest ultimatum issued by Donald Trump last week has been to deploy that most Russian of diplomatic weapons: contemptuous laughter. The US president's threat to impose draconian sanctions unless Putin ends his invasion of Ukraine within fifty days has been met with the kind of theatrical disdain that would make Chekhov proud.
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, never one to miss an opportunity for diplomatic sarcasm, openly sneered at Trump's intervention on Tuesday. 'We want to understand what exactly is behind this statement. Fifty days. It used to be 24 hours, and then it became 100 days. Russia has gone through all this and now wants to understand what the US president's motives are,' he said.
Russian officials have pledged to continue 'achieving the aims of the special military operation – the Kremlin's Orwellian euphemism for what the rest of us call the invasion of Ukraine. Putin himself has yet to comment, but then again, he's never been one to appreciate being lectured by anyone, least of all an American president. 'If and when President Putin considers it necessary, he will certainly respond,' Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. This defiance might appear to be typical Russian bravado, but a closer examination suggests Moscow's confidence may be rather more calculated than theatrical.
Trump's volte-face has been spectacular. After months of courting Putin and pressuring Ukraine to accept what amounted to capitulation, the President abruptly changed course on Monday. Fed up with Putin's intransigence, Trump promised to resume arms supplies to Ukraine and threatened to impose 100 per cent import tariffs on goods from any country trading with Russia.
On paper, this threat is enormous. Russian oil exports, the lifeblood of Putin's war machine, would be in the crosshairs. Such sanctions could deprive Moscow's already strained budget of roughly a quarter of its revenues and remove five million barrels per day from global markets. Yet oil prices barely flinched. The markets, it seems, share Moscow's scepticism – and with good reason.
The fundamental problem is that neither the Kremlin nor the stock market's trading desks appear to understand how these tariffs would actually work. This is hardly surprising, given that the idea seems to have been conceived more as a political gesture than a practical policy.
Trump's track record with deadlines provides little comfort for those hoping he'll follow through. He has previously presented Putin with ultimatums that proved to be more bluster than bite, while simultaneously bombing Iran, but only after issuing warnings shortly beforehand. In March, he signed an executive order imposing 25 per cent tariffs on countries importing Venezuelan oil – tariffs that have yet to materialise.
The fifty-day deadline itself presents Putin with both opportunity and incentive. It's sufficient time to pursue his summer offensive – the most successful, if costliest, since 2023. Rather than seeking immediate peace, Putin might well decide to go all in, intensifying his bombardment of Ukrainian cities while gnawing at Ukrainian defences. By September, he could be better positioned to offer a ceasefire from a position of strength, or perhaps to persuade his American counterpart that he needs just a little more time to complete his objectives.
Should Trump's tariffs actually materialise, they would devastate America's relationships with some rather important countries. China, India, and Turkey – Russia's primary oil customers – would face prohibitive trade barriers. The notion that America could simply cease trading with China, which is what the 100 per cent tariffs would result in, defies economic reality, as it became clear in the wake of Trump's trade war earlier this year. Similarly, alienating India at a time when Washington needs Delhi's support against Beijing seems strategically myopic. The issue of Turkey would also present an absurd scenario: sanctioning a Nato ally whose cooperation is essential for American interests in Syria and the Caucasus.
Perhaps most tellingly, removing five million barrels of Russian oil from global markets would trigger precisely the kind of price surge that Trump has spent years promising to avoid. With no spare production capacity to replace Russian crude in the short to medium term, American motorists would face soaring fuel costs just as inflation begins to bite harder. For a president who campaigned on economic competence, this would look like a self-damaging strategy.
Ironically, Trump's threat has already delivered Putin an unexpected gift: it has effectively neutered congressional efforts to impose more serious sanctions. Senate Majority Leader John Thune announced on Monday that he would postpone advancing a bipartisan sanctions package that boasted 85 Senate co-sponsors.
The senators' bill would have imposed even more severe, but equally prohibitive, tariffs – 500 per cent rather than 100 per cent. More importantly, though, it would have codified existing sanctions within a congressional framework, preventing future presidents from simply lifting them by declining to extend emergency powers. The bill also included provisions to exclude countries supporting Ukraine from the sanctions, potentially redirecting Russian oil flows and forcing Moscow to sell below the agreed price cap.
Instead, the Senate has put the legislation on ice and seems unlikely to revisit it soon. Putin could hardly have asked for a better outcome.
As theatre director Konstantin Stanislavsky once famously told his unconvincing actors, 'I don't believe you.' The markets appear to share this assessment. Trump's tariffs threat represents a change in rhetoric rather than substance.
Moscow's mockery, therefore, may be justified. Putin has called Trump's bluff before and emerged victorious. With economic reality, political constraints, and America's own strategic interests all working in his favour, the Russian president may well have calculated that he can afford to laugh at yet another American ultimatum.
The question isn't whether Putin will blink – it's whether Trump's threats will prove any more substantial than his previous deadlines. Moscow's confidence suggests they know the answer.