The Stock Market Just Did Something for the 11th Time Since 1984. History Says It Signals a Big Move in the Next Year.
The S&P 500 outperformed the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index by more than a percentage point in the first half of 2025, something it has done just 11 times since 1984.
Following incidents where the S&P 500 beat its equal-weight counterpart in the first half of a given year, the S&P 500 has returned an average of 21% in the next 12 months.
The S&P 500 currently trades at 22.3 times forward earnings, an unusually expensive valuation that has historically correlated with a three-year return of just 3% annually.
10 stocks we like better than S&P 500 Index ›
The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) added 5.5% in the first half of 2025 as the economy remained strong despite sweeping tariffs from the Trump administration. The "Magnificent Seven" stocks were responsible for 15% of those gains because of particularly strong performances from Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Nvidia.
Put differently, a relatively small number of mega-cap companies accounted for a relatively large portion of the S&P 500's gains in the first half of the year. In fact, the S&P 500 beat the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index -- an index that affords each stock the same weight, rather than weighting them by market capitalization -- by 1.7 percentage points.
So what? That was the 11th time since 1984 the S&P 500 has outperformed its equal-weight counterpart by more than a percentage point in the first half of the year. The last 10 times, the S&P 500 usually rocketed higher in the subsequent 12 months as the upward momentum broadened throughout the index.
Here's what investors should know.
History says the S&P 500 could rocket higher in the next year
The S&P 500 tracks 500 large-cap stocks. The index is weighted by market value, meaning more valuable companies have a greater impact on its performance. Conversely, the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index tracks the same stocks, but places the same weight on each one, so no company impacts its performance more than any other.
Since 1984, the S&P 500 has beat its equal-weight counterpart by more than a percentage point during the first half of 11 years , with the most recent incident being 2025. The following table shows the 12-month return in the S&P 500 after the last 10 incidents. Interestingly, the index has always increased and almost always achieved double-digit returns.
Year
S&P 500 Forward 12-Month Return
1984
25%
1990
4%
1995
23%
1997
28%
1998
21%
2012
18%
2017
12%
2020
39%
2023
23%
2024
14%
Average
21%
Data source: YCharts. Chart by Author.
As shown, when the S&P 500 beats its equal-weight counterpart by over a percentage point in the first half of the year, it has returned an average of 21% in the next 12 months. Past performance is never a guarantee of future results, but we can use that data to make an educated guess about what comes next for the stock market.
The S&P 500 closed at 6,205 on June 30, 2025. The index will increase 21% to 7,508 by June 30, 2026, if its performance matches the historical average. That implies 20% upside from its current level of 6,244.
The S&P 500 currently trades at a historically expensive valuation
One reason the S&P 500 beat its equal-weight counterpart in the first half of 2025 was strong earnings growth from the largest companies. The "Magnificent Seven" in aggregate saw earnings increase 28%, while the other 493 stocks in the index saw earnings increase just 9%, according to FactSet Research.
Importantly, Wall Street analysts generally think the gap will narrow in the future, as follows:
The "Magnificent Seven" are expected to report 16% earnings growth in 2025, while the other 493 companies in the S&P 500 are forecast to report 7% earnings growth.
The "Magnificent Seven" are expected to report 15% earnings growth in 2026, while the other 493 companies in the S&P 500 are forecast to report 13% earnings growth.
Despite being such large companies, the "Magnificent Seven" are still reporting strong earnings. That bodes well for the S&P 500 because the "Magnificent Seven" comprise one-third of the index by market value. But it's even more encouraging to know earnings are forecast to accelerate across the other 493 companies. That suggets the stock market rally could broaden in the coming months.
However, the S&P 500 currently trades at 22.3 times forward earnings, a premium to the 10-year average of 18.4 times forward earnings, according to FactSet Research. Historically, valuations near 22 times forward earnings have correlated with annual returns of just 3% over the next three years, according to economist Torsten Slok at Apollo Global Management.
Here's the big picture: History says the S&P 500 could rocket higher in the next year. But history also says elevated valuations could lead to weak results over the next three years. Investors can reconcile those opposing views by limiting purchases to high-conviction stocks that trade at reasonable valuations.
Do the experts think S&P 500 Index is a buy right now?
The Motley Fool's expert analyst team, drawing on years of investing experience and deep analysis of thousands of stocks, leverages our proprietary Moneyball AI investing database to uncover top opportunities. They've just revealed their to buy now — did S&P 500 Index make the list?
When our Stock Advisor analyst team has a stock recommendation, it can pay to listen. After all, Stock Advisor's total average return is up 1,060% vs. just 179% for the S&P — that is beating the market by 881.02%!*
Imagine if you were a Stock Advisor member when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $679,653!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $1,046,308!*
The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.
See the 10 stocks »
*Stock Advisor returns as of July 15, 2025
Randi Zuckerberg, a former director of market development and spokeswoman for Facebook and sister to Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Trevor Jennewine has positions in Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends FactSet Research Systems, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The Stock Market Just Did Something for the 11th Time Since 1984. History Says It Signals a Big Move in the Next Year. was originally published by The Motley Fool
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It's large enough to make a difference—covering groceries, power bills, copays, or rent gaps—but small enough that lenders can issue it quickly without extensive underwriting. It's also a threshold where most borrowers still feel confident repaying the amount within weeks rather than months, avoiding long-term debt burdens. Financial influencers and credit education platforms increasingly reference the $500 loan range when discussing realistic options for consumers with poor credit. The term 'fast loans for bad credit' has become a kind of shorthand for accessibility, and platforms like MoneyMutual are at the center of that ecosystem. Unlike traditional banks or payday storefronts that require paperwork, in-person visits, or rigid score minimums, MoneyMutual operates fully online—allowing qualified applicants to submit a secure form and match with multiple vetted lenders within minutes. This format is now the preferred method for people searching for the best bad credit loans in 2025. 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Final Comparison Snapshot Feature MoneyMutual Common Alternatives Lender Options Multiple offers presented One lender only Credit Sensitivity Built for bad credit Rejects many Repayment Terms Transparent, flexible Often hidden or unclear Application Process Fast, secure, guided Clunky, confusing Payout Speed Often within 24 hours Delays or no response Post-Approval Spam Limited to selected lender Aggressive marketing MoneyMutual's endurance in this space is not an accident — it's the result of a platform that prioritizes long-term trust over short-term lead generation. With predatory sites phasing out or being delisted by regulators, the landscape is clearer than ever: MoneyMutual remains one of the only stable, structured, and transparent bad credit loan platforms still operating in 2025. 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MoneyMutual's value in this landscape isn't just its fast application or wide lender network — it's that it continues to meet the modern borrower where they are: informed, cautious, and ready to say no to options that don't feel right. In Summary: Borrowers are becoming more research-driven than ever. Forums and feedback loops increasingly favor transparency over hype. MoneyMutual is benefiting from this shift due to its structured, option-driven approach. While no platform is immune from skepticism, those that emphasize clarity, security, and control are winning public trust. Section 9: Final Thoughts & Long-Term Role of MoneyMutual As the short-term lending market continues to evolve, one thing has become clear in 2025: the age of anonymous loan sites and questionable approval guarantees is fading. Borrowers are demanding more. More transparency. More safety. More clarity. And platforms that don't adapt to these expectations are disappearing from the rankings — and from relevance. 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Section 10: Contact Information, Reader FAQs & Final Compliance Statement How Can I Apply for a $500 Loan with No Credit Check? Simply visit the official MoneyMutual platform to begin your application. Borrowers complete a secure online form and are matched with vetted lenders who offer real-time decisions. The process is fast, requires no physical documents, and is designed for applicants with poor credit histories. Is MoneyMutual Legitimate for Bad Credit Loans in 2025? Yes. MoneyMutual has operated for over a decade, serving millions of users looking for trusted loan options, especially in times of financial stress. It connects borrowers to a network of lenders who provide transparent terms — no hidden fees, no misleading rollover clauses, and no gimmicks. Are the Loans from MoneyMutual Instant? While exact timing may vary by lender, most users receive a decision within minutes and funds as soon as the same business day. That makes it one of the most efficient platforms for emergency payday loans and bad credit borrowing in 2025. Additional Coverage Best Bad Credit Loan Providers with Guaranteed Approval & No Credit Check Required Best Payday Lenders for Personal Finance Loans with Bad Credit Scores Best Bad Credit Loans for Instant Payday Lending Contact Information MoneyMutual – Trusted Loan Connection Platform Email: customerservice@ Phone (US): 844-276-2063 Website: Visit the Official MoneyMutual Site Final Disclaimer This article is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, lending services, or endorsement of any specific loan provider. MoneyMutual is not a lender and does not make credit decisions. Loan availability, approval times, interest rates, and terms vary by lender and state. Always review any offer carefully before accepting. This release does not offer treatment, diagnosis, or any legal/medical guidance. CONTACT: Email: customerservice@ Phone (US): 844-276-2063Sign in to access your portfolio
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Frugal Or Just Embarrassing? Homeowner Admits To Hiding Money-Saving Hacks From Guests
For many budget-conscious homeowners, frugality is a badge of honor. But when guests are on the way, that pride can give way to hesitation — especially if your cost-saving habits are unconventional. One Reddit user recently posted to the r/Frugal forum asking: "Anyone else 'frugal proof' their home before guests come over?" The question sparked hundreds of replies, revealing a surprisingly common dilemma: when does frugality become too much for company? Don't Miss: Deloitte's fastest-growing software company partners with Amazon, Walmart & Target – Many are rushing to grab Named a TIME Best Invention and Backed by 5,000+ Users, Kara's Air-to-Water Pod Cuts Plastic and Costs — Hiding the Hacks for the Sake of Guests The original poster shared that they often hide their most noticeable money-saving tricks before hosting. That includes repurposed containers, DIY heating setups with blankets and space heaters, and a homemade bidet attachment. "I love being frugal," the OP wrote, "but sometimes I don't feel like explaining why I have cut-up old t-shirts instead of paper towels." Several commenters admitted to doing the same thing. One noted they bring out the 'good toilet paper' for guests and stash the hoarded takeout containers they usually use for meal prep. Another said it's just like using fancy china or wine when company comes over — presenting a polished version of your home is normal. Trending: This AI-Powered Trading Platform Has 5,000+ Users, 27 Pending Patents, and a $43.97M Valuation — It's Not About Shame — It's About Hospitality Not all who "frugal-proof" do so out of embarrassment. For many, it's about making guests feel comfortable. One user explained they adjust the thermostat, use paper towels even if they don't normally, and avoid commenting on guests' disposal habits. "I don't expect people to embrace everything I do," they wrote. "I want my guests to be comfortable and feel welcome." This sentiment was echoed by others who said it's not about hiding frugality — just choosing what's appropriate for the occasion. As one commenter put it: "There's a sweet spot between being comfortable with your choices and just making sure guests aren't uncomfortable." Frugality With Style and Purpose Several Redditors chimed in to say frugal doesn't have to mean ugly — or awkward. Some described homes filled with secondhand finds that are actually high-quality and stylish. One said their homemade products look better in glass jars than store-bought plastic containers. Another uses cloth napkins made from an old duvet, which they claim are prettier than paper alternatives."I buy 90% of things used, but I am patient and will go without until I can get a deal on a high-quality item," one user explained. Others were quick to draw a line between thoughtful frugality and habits that could feel off-putting. Using cut-up t-shirts instead of towels, for example, was seen by some as crossing into "odd" territory. The same went for a DIY bidet that might confuse guests or require a demonstration. Embracing a Frugal Lifestyle — Proudly or Quietly Some commenters fully embraced their thrifty ways without apology. One proudly quoted a family motto on their fridge: "Use it up, wear it out, make it do or do without." Another shared a touching story about giving away a restored $200 car to a young teen in a tough situation — proof that frugality, at its best, can empower others and build community. For others, the goal is to make frugality look intentional and elegant. "My frugal things look nice," one user said. "Frugal does not have to equal cheap." Bottom Line Whether you choose to flaunt your frugal habits or tuck them away when guests arrive, you're not alone. There's no one-size-fits-all approach. For many, it's a balancing act between personal values and social norms — and finding that balance is part of the journey. Read Next: Warren Buffett once said, "If you don't find a way to make money while you sleep, you will work until you die." Image: Shutterstock UNLOCKED: 5 NEW TRADES EVERY WEEK. Click now to get top trade ideas daily, plus unlimited access to cutting-edge tools and strategies to gain an edge in the markets. Get the latest stock analysis from Benzinga? APPLE (AAPL): Free Stock Analysis Report TESLA (TSLA): Free Stock Analysis Report This article Frugal Or Just Embarrassing? Homeowner Admits To Hiding Money-Saving Hacks From Guests originally appeared on © 2025 Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
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Veteran fund manager who predicted Nvidia stock rally resets forecast on China shock
Veteran fund manager who predicted Nvidia stock rally resets forecast on China shock originally appeared on TheStreet. The move off the early April lows is impressive. The S&P 500 dropped 10% following President Trump's tariff announcement on April 2, so-called "Liberation Day," but has since recaptured all its losses and made new highs. The S&P 500's spring sell-off was fast and unexpected, sparking fear that trade war uncertainty would serve as a catalyst for stagflation or outright recession. As a result, many investors sold top performers, including Nvidia, before a massive post-sell-off run higher. An 82% rally in Nvidia's stock price since its early April low likely surprised many, and investors who missed the buy-the-dip move are likely shaking their heads, wondering if it's too late to buy. 💵💰💰💵 One who wasn't caught flat-footed by Nvidia's move is veteran Wall Street fund manager Dan Niles. In late April, he said Nvidia shares would likely continue climbing, writing in a post on X, "$NVDA: While their quarter ends in April, four reasons make me optimistic on the stock in the near-term," citing surging AI inference demand, among other things. It wasn't Niles's first correct call this year. In December, he chose cash as his top holding for 2025 over worries that stocks would drop before the S&P 500's 19% drop beginning in February. In April, he suggested the market sell-off was overdone, setting stocks up for gains. Now that Nvidia has rallied sharply higher to become the US stock market's largest company, with an eye-popping $4 trillion market capitalization, Niles has updated his outlook in the wake of a surprising shift in US-China regulations. Nvidia rides tsunami of AI demand to record highs Nvidia's ascent over the past few years is one for the record books. OpenAI's launch of ChatGPT—the fastest app to reach one million users—uncorked a tidal wave of interest in artificial intelligence research and development, causing Nvidia's revenue, profit, and share price to everyone is getting in on the AI action. Banks are using AI to hedge risks on portfolios and loans, manufacturers are evaluating its use in quality control and automation, retailers are embracing it to stop retail theft and improve supply chains, and healthcare companies are seeing if it can improve drug development and treatment. Even the US military is considering its use on the battlefield. AI may seem like a new thing, given that talk of it is everywhere. But AI R&D has been happening for many decades. The mathematician and computer scientist Alan Turing investigated AI computer design in the 1950s, and Rand Corp. developed the first AI program in 1956. Over the years, many science-fiction books and movies, including Terminator, have examined the potential of machines someday thinking for themselves. ChatGPT's launch has been AI's biggest Main Street moment, though. The large language model's ability to quickly parse data has spawned many rivals, including Google's Gemini, China's DeepSeek, and Amazon-backed Anthropic. Microsoft has rolled out CoPilot, and Meta Platforms is in the mix too. There's also been a surge in agentic AI in the past 12 months as companies of all sizes look to find ways to leverage AI "agents" for productivity and cost savings. All this means there's a tremendous need for computing power, and unfortunately, most networks aren't optimized to handle AI's heavy workloads. More Nvidia: Analysts revamp forecast for Nvidia-backed AI stock Nvidia stock could surge after surprising Taiwan Semi news Nvidia CEO sends blunt 7-word message on quantum computing As a result, hyperscalers like Google Cloud, Amazon's AWS, and Microsoft's Azure, along with most hybrid and private enterprise networks, have rushed to replace clunky servers running on legacy CPUs with high-end solutions like liquid-cooled server racks powered by Graphics Processing Units (GPUs). This seismic shift in network infrastructure has created a tsunami of demand for Nvidia, the de facto leader in GPUs and the software necessary for running them efficiently. The company's latest Blackwell GPUs can cost $30,000 to $40,000 each, and fully equipped server racks can cost millions. Unsurprisingly, Nvidia's annual revenue has surged to over $130 billion from about $27 billion in 2022, and its profit has similarly skyrocketed thanks to juicy margins. Its net income was $73 billion last fiscal year, up from $9.8 billion in 2022. Over this period, Nvidia's share price has catapulted 1,080% higher. Nvidia regains footing as China headwind eases Nvidia's rapid growth and share gains have rewarded long-term investors, but stocks don't rise or fall in a straight line, and even the most successful companies suffer notching all-time highs in February this year, shares came under pressure as economic worries raised concerns that AI infrastructure spending is peaking, particularly in the wake of reports that DeepSeek's latest AI chatbot was developed for only $6 million on older, less costly hardware. Nvidia was also dealt a blow by ongoing US regulatory scrutiny over selling next-gen technology to China. Worry that China may use Nvidia's GPUs against the US someday prompted significant restrictions on Nvidia's ability to market chips in China, resulting in a ban on sales of its most popular chip in China, the H20. In response, Nvidia was forced to take a $5.5 billion write-off earlier this year. The combination of a weakening stock market, economic recession risks amid tariff-fueled trade wars, AI spending risks, and product bans contributed to Nvidia stock falling 41% from its January high to its April low. Nvidia's shares have since recovered lost ground, with investors broadly concluding that the worst is now behind it. Hyperscaler and enterprise AI spending has yet to wobble and recently, President Trump's administration cleared the way for Nvidia to resume H20 chip sales in China, removing a key overhang. The potential for agentic AI to fuel inference demand for chips has also accelerated. The backdrop for improving tailwinds isn't surprising to Niles, given his late April conclusion that Nvidia's stock could head higher. And now that the China chip freeze has thawed, Niles has rebooted his bullish outlook. "W/ export restriction coming off, expect an order surge from China for $NVDA given fears they could come back," wrote Niles on X. "China has half the AI researchers in the world & is at least 20% of AI chip demand. China rev was out of Nvidia estimates post write-down but is now coming back." In April, Niles said he didn't anticipate removing China restrictions, which could now allow Nvidia to eventually "get clearance to sell a detuned version of their latest Blackwell chip into the China market at some point." That possibility could lead to a rethink of analysts' forward revenue and earnings estimates, with increases potentially supporting stock prices. Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management thinks consensus revenue estimates could climb 10%. And, as for the risk that slowing AI R&D for training new AI chatbots and AI apps could ding demand for chips, Niles isn't convinced given token growth associated with using AI agents. "As agentic AI increasingly gets adopted and proliferates across the one device consumers always have with them, the smartphone, this token growth should remain strong," wrote Niles. "Hardware demand for inference should ultimately dwarf the demand for training." Todd Campbell has owned shares in Nvidia since fund manager who predicted Nvidia stock rally resets forecast on China shock first appeared on TheStreet on Jul 19, 2025 This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Jul 19, 2025, where it first appeared.
