March Madness: Alabama vs. Duke odds, picks and predictions
The No. 1 seed Blue Devils, also ranked No. 1 in the USA TODAY Sports Men's Basketball Coaches Poll, are back in the Elite 8 for the first time since 2022. As a No. 2 seed, Duke topped Arkansas 78-69 to advance to the Final 4 that year. The Blue Devils have dropped 2 of their past 3 games in the Elite 8, however.
As a No. 1 seed, Duke is 5-4 straight up (SU) all-time against the No. 2 seed, including a win over Arizona in the 2001 National Championship game.
Duke advanced to the Elite 8 with a 100-93 win over Arizona in the Sweet 16 Thursday, holding off a furious second-half rally and a 35-point effort from Wildcats G Caleb Love. ACC Player and Rookie of the Year F Cooper Flagg led the Blue Devils with 30 points, 6 rebounds, and a career-high 7 assists. G Kon Knueppel added 20 points, while G Sion James chipped in 16, including 3 triples.
Duke's non-cover against Arizona was its first in 3 NCAA Tournament games, after covering as a double-digit favorite in its first 2 matchups in Raleigh. The Over has hit in all 3 tournament games and is 10-3 over the past 13 contests.
Alabama stayed true to form in the Sweet 16, lighting up the scoreboard while giving up plenty of points in a 113-88 win over BYU as a 4.5-point favorite Thursday. The Over (175) easily hit, as the teams combined for 201 points — just as joked about on last weekend's telecast.
Alabama G Mark Sears put on a show, dropping 34 points on an efficient 11-of-18 shooting, including 10-for-16 from beyond the arc. He also tallied 8 assists and 3 steals. G Aden Holloway contributed 23 points off the bench, while F Grant Nelson grabbed a team-high 10 rebounds.
For the second straight season, Alabama is vying for a trip to the Final Four. Last year, the Crimson Tide defeated sixth-seeded Clemson 89-82, advancing to the national semifinals before falling to eventual champion UConn, 86-72. This marks Alabama's third-ever Elite 8 appearance, and the first time it will face a team other than UConn.
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Alabama vs. Duke odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:01 a.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML) : Alabama +240 (bet $100 to win $240) | Duke -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
: Alabama +240 (bet $100 to win $240) | Duke -300 (bet $300 to win $100) Against the spread (ATS) : Alabama +7.5 (-118) | Duke -7.5 (-102)
: Alabama +7.5 (-118) | Duke -7.5 (-102) Over/Under (O/U): 174.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Alabama vs. Duke picks and predictions
Prediction
Duke 96, Alabama 91
Duke (-300) will set you back 3 times your potential return, and that's way too much to risk on a standalone bet. Over the long term, betting favorites like that SU is a losing strategy. Even if you were to include the Blue Devils in a multi-leg parlay, it is only profitable if you're able to toss in an odds boost and/or no-sweat bet.
AVOID, and look to the spread instead.
ALABAMA +7.5 (-118) is worth playing with the points.
The Crimson Tide continue to impress with their relentless offensive firepower. They know how to put up big numbers, and they'll have the opportunity to do so against Duke.
However, the Blue Devils know a thing or two about scoring, too, and this Duke team is one of the deepest teams Alabama has seen all season. It will have its hands full with Flagg and company all night long.
OVER 174.5 (-115) is the best play on the board, and the scoreboard operator at The Rock better limber up his/her fingers for a busy night with frequent scoring.
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