South Africa's Status Strengthened by Diplomacy Amid Ukraine War, US Tariffs: Analysts
JOHANNESBURG—South African President Cyril Ramaphosa spoke with the leaders of the United States, Russia, and Ukraine in the past week, talks that analysts said could improve strained relations between Africa's biggest economy and the world's largest market, and potentially mark a turning point in the war in Ukraine.
Equally, they said, some of Ramaphosa's comments would not be received favorably by Russian President Vladimir Putin and could weaken what one South African minister previously
After Ramaphosa met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Pretoria on Thursday, South African government officials told The Epoch Times that the pair had agreed to forge stronger trade relations, saying that this was especially important in the wake of U.S. President Donald Trump's imposition of a 31 percent tariff on South African goods exported to the United States.
Sanusha Naidoo, an international relations analyst at the Institute for Global Dialogue in Johannesburg, told The Epoch Times that a key takeaway from the Ramaphosa-Zelenskyy engagement was the South African leader's agreement that a potential cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine must be unconditional.
'This position is a significant development, because it puts South Africa on the wrong side, if you will, of both Trump and Putin. It actually positions the South African government well to be a credible mediator in the war in Ukraine,' she said.
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'South Africa's experience in negotiating an end to apartheid between two sides that at first wouldn't budge could prove invaluable here, and the Ukrainians acknowledge this as does Putin, who has said quite often that he admires Ramaphosa's role in being top negotiator with the former apartheid government in the early 1990s.'
The Trump administration has been putting pressure on both Kyiv and Moscow to reach a peace agreement aimed at ending Europe's deadliest conflict since World War II.
'Trump's suggestion that Ukraine is fortunate that Putin hasn't seized the whole country yet and that Ukraine should basically let him keep the territory gained so far by Russian forces, and that's unacceptable to Zelenskyy,' Helmoed Heitman, a South African military historian and conflict analyst, told The Epoch Times.
'Judging from what emerged in Pretoria yesterday [Thursday], the Ukrainian government has a certain level of trust in Ramaphosa, despite the ANC's [African National Congress] fondness for Moscow.'
The ANC, which Ramaphosa leads, is the majority party in South Africa's coalition government and is in charge of foreign policy directions.
Under the ANC, South Africa refused to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine at the United Nations, abstaining from voting.
The ANC has historic ties to Russia, with many of its leaders receiving military training and education from the former Soviet Union from the 1950s to the early 1990s when they were fighting to overthrow apartheid in South Africa.
Trump has repeatedly criticized Pretoria for being closely aligned with Washington's geopolitical foes, including Russia, China, and Iran, and for
The U.S. president signed an
'The government of South Africa blatantly discriminates against ethnic minority descendants of settler groups,' the White House
'As long as South Africa continues to support bad actors on the world stage and allows violent attacks on innocent disfavored minority farmers, the United States will stop aid and assistance to the country.'
Speaking to reporters after meeting Zelenskyy, Ramaphosa revealed that Trump had called him on Wednesday to discuss the war in Ukraine. He said that they had agreed to meet at a later stage to discuss the current poor relations between their governments.
'It seems to be a step back from Trump's previously intransigent position. Trump suggested in previous executive orders and comments that he'd only change tack on South Africa if the Ramaphosa government makes policy changes, like stopping black economic empowerment and affirmative action,' Naidoo said. "There've been no policy changes and Pretoria says it doesn't intend to make any changes, but here Trump is talking to Ramaphosa.'
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa (R) meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin ahead of a meeting with African leaders at the Constantine (Konstantinovsky) Palace in Strelna, outside Saint Petersburg on June 19, 2023.
Ramil Sitdikov/RIA Novosti/AFP via Getty Images
Ramaphosa's spokesperson, Vincent Magwenya, told The Epoch Times that Pretoria agreed to try to track down 400 children whom Zelenskyy alleges were abducted in Ukraine by Russian troops. Moscow previously denied the allegations.
Magwenya did not comment on the methods his government intends to use to achieve this.
John Steenhuisen, leader of South Africa's second-largest party in the unity government, the Democratic Alliance, said attempts to look into the alleged abductions will likely involve 'tense talks with Moscow and Kremlin officials.'
He told The Epoch Times it's a great sign that Ramaphosa and the ANC agreed to do this because up until now they haven't been willing to take any step that could be seen as alienating and angering Putin.
'I hope the ANC follows through seriously on this pledge,' Steenhuisen said. 'If it does, I don't think Putin will welcome it as he'll see it as interference in Russia's domestic affairs, but I hope the ANC sticks to its guns and hasn't made an empty promise.'
Magwenya said his government was also considering purchasing Ukrainian-manufactured drones.
'They have proven to have excellent capabilities, and it's possible we will use them to monitor our borders and in our wildlife reserves to counter poachers,' he said.
Ramaphosa also mentioned the possibility of nuclear energy cooperation with Kyiv and joint fertilizer production, as part of South Africa's efforts to diversify trade in the wake of Trump's tariffs and other economic developments.
Steenhuisen, who's also South Africa's agriculture minister, said Ukraine had shown immense interest in importing citrus fruit from South Africa.
South Africa currently exports citrus fruit to the United States duty-free under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), but U.S. Congress is expected to end the deal when it comes up for renewal in September.
'[Ukraine] might take a lot of meat as well from us, so that's positive, and we'll continue importing grain from them, especially wheat, when needed,' Steenhuisen said.
Magwenya said an improved trade relationship with Kyiv is part of South Africa's efforts to 'diversify in terms of economic partners' as a direct result of the U.S. tariffs.
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