With more intense hurricanes, do we also have to prepare for more tornadoes in Florida?
To answer our readers' questions on the links between climate change and tornadoes and how we can improve safety, the Herald spoke spoke to hazards geographer Stephen Strader, who studied meteorology and geography at Northern Illinois University, and holds degrees in both. He also researches tornadoes at Villanova University in Pennsylvania., where he's an associate professor of geography and the environment and geography program director.
How is climate change affecting the risk of tornadoes?
Stephen Strader: We actually know a lot more about climate change and hurricanes than we do tornadoes, because tornadoes tend to be very small – the widest tornado ever recorded is two and a half miles wide, and most are only a few 100 yards wide. Our models are not at that resolution.
What is concerning, though, is that it's not uncommon to have tornadoes associated with hurricanes because you have a very violent environment, and you have a lot of moisture. These ingredients tend to produce tornadoes.
Now that the rapid intensification of these hurricanes is becoming more frequent, where I'm going to bed and the hurricane is at Category 1, and I wake up and it's a Category 4, the question becomes: how are hurricanes changing and will that produce more tornadoes? If we end up with stronger and slower moving hurricanes producing more precipitation, the guess would be that tornadoes would also increase when they're associated with hurricanes.
The scary thing is: We really don't know yet.
How far away from a hurricane can tornadoes spawn? Hurricane Milton made landfall on the Gulf Coast, but on the Atlantic Coast, we saw a local record of 46 in a day, with five deaths in St. Lucie County alone.
Strader: They can occur 50 to 100 miles away from the center of the hurricane. When we think about a hurricane's impact, it's not just the eye wall. The tornadoes typically are further away from the eye wall. They have to be, because they need a lot of different ingredients than the hurricane.
What's scary about that to me is that the hurricane made landfall on the west coast of Florida, so on the east coast, people let their guard down. 'Oh, we're on the safe side of Florida'. But then here come the tornadoes. I think that contributed to a lot of the deaths and damages that we saw.
What can we do to better protect our communities from tornadoes – can we zone for them?
Strader: We can build stronger structures, enforce codes, retrofit structures – and we do that, but we need to do more of that. You can bring a manufactured home up to really strong codes, above and beyond what is required. It's just expensive. So the question now is, who pays for it, and how do we do that?
Zoning is difficult, and frankly, tourism reigns king. No one's going to not build in an area that's going to make them money every day. No developer, no business is going to do that.
Tornadoes are rare, hurricanes are fairly rare. So you're asking people to stop doing something that's going to make them money day to day, in favor of being worried about a low probability event. That's tricky. People tend to gamble.
But Florida is going to have to start asking the question: Do we zone? And really, it's because of sea level rise and flooding. The insurance companies have pulled out in a lot of states, and that's because it's just too risky. So, are people going to move away, or are they gonna be forced to move away?
This Q&A has been edited for brevity and clarity. This story is part of a periodic Miami Herald series where we answer reader questions about climate change. Send us yours at climate@miamiherald.com.
This climate report is funded by Florida International University, the John S. and James L. Knight Foundation and the David and Christina Martin Family Foundation in partnership with Journalism Funding Partners. The Miami Herald retains editorial control of all content.
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