Drone escalation in Kurdistan: Tactical evolution or strategic warning?

Shafaq News

3 days ago

Shafaq News
Since the official end of the latest regional escalation between Iran and Israel in late June, Iraq—particularly the Kurdistan Region—has witnessed a noticeable increase in drone attacks targeting sensitive military and economic sites. While no actor has claimed responsibility, the frequency, precision, and selection of targets point to a calculated campaign designed to apply pressure while avoiding confrontation.
The attacks, mostly carried out using explosive-laden drones, raise pressing concerns about Iraq's internal security equilibrium, regional entanglements, and the technological evolution of asymmetrical warfare.
A Series of Shadow Strikes
The wave of drone incidents began with precision strikes on Iraqi defense radar systems at Balad, Taji, Ain al-Asad, and Nasiriyah bases—occurring just hours after US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire agreement between Tehran and Tel Aviv. Soon after, attention shifted northward.
In the Kurdistan Region, multiple attacks attempted to strike Erbil International Airport—home to a US-led coalition base—and key oil infrastructure. On July 14, two major oil fields, Khurmala and Sarsang, were targeted. The latter was hit directly, igniting fires and forcing a production halt. Just two days later, a coordinated drone assault struck three more oil facilities in Zakho and Duhok, including the DNO-operated Peshkhabour field and the US-linked Hand Oil site in Baadre.
Although the attacks caused no casualties, the choice of targets—radar systems, airports, and oil infrastructure—points to strategic intent: undermining state defense, disrupting international military coordination, and damaging economic lifelines.
Condemnation Without Attribution
The Kurdistan Region Presidency condemned the strikes as 'a threat to sovereignty and national investment,' urging Baghdad to act decisively.
Iraq's presidency warned that repeated violations risk unraveling national security and the public interest.
Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani ordered an immediate investigation and measures to strengthen air defense and radar capabilities.
The US Embassy in Baghdad also weighed in, describing the attacks as 'unacceptable' and harmful to Iraq's investment climate and sovereignty. Washington urged Baghdad to contain armed actors and ensure accountability.
Despite mounting pressure, no government body has officially accused a party. The Iraqi military denied the Kurdistan Region's implicit suggestion of Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) involvement in one of the attacks, stating there were 'no unusual military movements.'
PMF-linked political umbrella, the Coordination Framework, also distanced itself, labeling the attacks 'destabilizing acts' by rogue forces. Amer al-Fayez, a senior CF member, told Shafaq News that affiliated factions 'had no involvement' and emphasized the consensus to avoid regional entanglements.
Simple Designs, Strategic Effect
While no photos or detailed forensic data have been released, military analysts consulted by Shafaq News described the drones as short-range and likely launched from within Iraqi territory—suggesting proximity-based tactics rather than cross-border operations.
According to these sources, two main drone types were used:
-Modified Civilian Drones: Used in Erbil attacks, these were standard commercial UAVs retrofitted with explosives. Though limited in range and payload, their small radar cross-section and low altitude make them difficult to intercept.
-Suicidal Loitering Drones: Used in Al-Sulaymaniyah and Duhok, these resemble Iranian-designed Shahed models in both build and propulsion. With short airborne lifespans and limited maneuverability, they are intended to detonate upon impact—trading sophistication for surprise and expendability.
Security Analyst Alaa al-Nashou' told Shafaq News that 'Iraq is entering a drone conflict era,' adding that several armed factions in Iraq possess Iranian-made UAVs such as the Shahed-129, Ababil-3, and Mohajer-6. These systems—ranging from surveillance to strike capabilities—are now being adapted for hybrid urban-rural conflict zones like Kurdistan.
Al-Nashou' did not attribute the drone attacks to Iraqi factions, instead opting to withhold judgment during the discussion.
Another military expert, who speaks on condition of anonymity, pointed out that military debris recovered from recent attacks reportedly included small combustion engines and primitive wing assemblies—suggesting a blend of local assembly and imported components, likely smuggled in from regional suppliers. The drones' limited range (under 10 km) and low-tech configuration further suggest that these are not state-grade systems but rather asymmetrical tools of coercion.
Will the Attacks Continue?
Multiple military and diplomatic sources believe that this wave of drone strikes is not an isolated episode but part of a broader playbook aimed at asserting political influence. Intelligence assessments obtained by Shafaq News indicate that the same drone networks responsible for recent attacks in Kurdistan are linked to earlier operations in central Iraq, including the targeting of Taji and Nasiriyah.
A senior Western diplomat in Baghdad, speaking on condition of anonymity, warned, 'Unless Baghdad disrupts the operational infrastructure behind these drones—whether through arrests, air defense upgrades, or diplomatic pressure—we will likely see more attacks in the coming weeks.' He described the current moment as a 'litmus test' for Iraqi sovereignty.
The Kurdistan Region's internal security agency also stated that the drones bear the hallmark of groups connected to the PMF, but stopped short of naming any faction. Notably, the Region has refrained from directly accusing Iran or any particular militia in its latest statements, likely to avoid further escalation. However, frustration is mounting.
A second statement from the Kurdistan Ministry of Interior accused the federal government of 'covering up' repeated security violations and failing to release the results of past joint investigations.
Strategic Fallout and Political Tensions
The drone campaign comes at a moment of economic fragility in the Kurdistan Region. Since the shutdown of the Iraq-Turkiye pipeline in 2023, Erbil has relied almost entirely on domestic oil consumption and limited internal revenue streams. Attacks on vital oil fields like Khurmala and Sarsang further weaken the Region's economic footing and amplify political grievances with Baghdad.
The strikes also reveal the persistent fragility of the Baghdad-Erbil relationship. While federal and regional authorities continue to coordinate through joint command centers, mutual suspicion—especially around the PMF's presence in disputed zones—remains high.
Al-Nashou', the military analyst, stressed that the use of drones by non-state actors 'allows plausible deniability and strategic ambiguity,' making it harder for Baghdad to publicly assign blame or retaliate. 'This grey zone warfare benefits militias more than governments,' he noted.