National Hurricane Center tracking Invest 93L. Will it impact Sarasota, Bradenton?
Forecasters have been watching the system — now designated as Invest 93L — for several days. Chances for development continued to tick up and now stand at 40% over the next 48 hours.
This system is forecast to move westward across the Florida Peninsula today and tonight.
➤ Track all active storms
➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location
Regardless of development, the system is expected to lead to numerous showers and thunderstorms across portions of Sarasota and Manatee counties each day through Thursday, July 17, with localized flash flooding possible, the National Weather Service in Ruskin reported.
Excessive Rainfall (July 15-17): Marginal to Slight Risk with locally heavy rainfall possibly leading to flooding in urban, low-lying, and poor drainage areas.
July 15: Slight Risk (15-39% chance), except Marginal (5-14% chance) across southwest Florida
July 16: Marginal (5-14% chance)
July 17: Marginal (5-14% chance)
General thunderstorms are expected:
Gusty winds up to 50 mph
Frequent Lightning
A flood watch is in effect for coastal Manatee County until 11 p.m. Tuesday. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.
The next named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will be Dexter.
Here's the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 a.m. July 15:
Invest 93L expected to move across Florida today, July 15
Satellite and radar data indicate the shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the low pressure located just offshore of the east coast of Florida remains disorganized.
This system is forecast to move westward across the Florida Peninsula today and then reach the northeastern Gulf by Wednesday, July 16.
Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression could form while the system moves across the northeastern and north-central Gulf.Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized flash flooding over portions of Florida through mid-week.
Heavy rainfall could also cause flash flooding for portions of the north-central Gulf Coast during the middle to latter portions of this week.
Formation chance through 48 hours: medium, 40 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days: medium, 40 percent.
Spaghetti models for Invest 93L
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
What is an invest?
Short for investigation, the National Hurricane Center uses the term invest for areas of low pressure it is monitoring for potential development into a tropical depression or storm.
Invests are not tropical depressions or tropical storms. They're usually clusters of showers and thunderstorms, and just because they've been designated as an invest does not guarantee they'll strengthen into a tropical storm or hurricane.
Invests run from 90 to 99, followed by a letter: L for the Atlantic basin and E for those in the eastern Pacific. After 99, it starts over again and the next invest would be 90.
Once something has been designated as an invest, specialized data sets and computer models can begin, including scheduling Hurricane Hunter aircraft missions and running spaghetti models.
What impacts are expected in Florida from Invest 93L?
Get ready for some heavy rain and localized flash flooding over portions of Florida through mid-week, even if a tropical system doesn't develop, according to the National Hurricane Center.
"Heavy downpours are expected to continue across much of the Florida Peninsula through Tuesday night. Thunderstorms, infused with tropical moisture, could produce more than 4 inches of rain," said AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva.
Those at the Florida beaches will also experience rough surf and strong rip currents into Wednesday.
➤ How to set up emergency cellphone notifications for flash flood warnings and safety tips
➤ Excessive rainfall forecast
"A more organized tropical system would bring a larger swath of heavy rain and a more widespread flooding risk," DaSilva added.
AccuWeather forecasters Tuesday, July 15, were predicting a tropical depression will make landfall in southeastern Louisiana Thursday morning, July 17.
"The farther south that the tropical rainstorm is able to travel over Florida, the longer it will have over the Gulf to strengthen before landfall," DaSilva said. It's not out the question that, in this scenario, the tropical system would have enough time to become a tropical storm.
Sarasota, Bradenton, Manatee County weather forecast
Sarasota, Manatee County weather forecast from to the National Weather Service, as of July 15, 2025:
Sarastoa County:
July 15: Showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. High near 89. Heat index values as high as 100. Light and variable wind becoming west southwest around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Tuesday night, showers and thunderstorms before 8pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 8pm and 11pm, then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 11pm. Low around 75. South southwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming southeast after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
July 16: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm, then showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. High near 89. South wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Wednesday night, showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 8pm. Low around 76. East southeast wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
July 17: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. High near 91. South southeast wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Thursday night, showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then scattered showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 2am. Low around 75. East southeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
July 18: Scattered showers and thunderstorms between 8am and 2pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. Southeast wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Friday night, showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then isolated showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 76. East wind 3 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Manatee County:
July 15: Showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. High near 91. Heat index values as high as 101. Light and variable wind becoming west southwest around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Tuesday night, showers and thunderstorms before 8pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 8pm and 11pm, then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 11pm. Low around 74. Southeast wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
July 16: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm, then showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. High near 90. South wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Wednesday night, showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 8pm. Low around 74. East southeast wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
July 17: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. High near 92. South southeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Thursday night, showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then scattered showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 2am. Low around 74. East southeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
July 18: Scattered showers and thunderstorms between 8am and 2pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 94. Southeast wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Friday night, showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then isolated showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 76. East wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Spaghetti models for Invest 93L
Sarasota, Manatee County, Florida live weather radar
Weather watches and warnings issued for Naples, Collier County, Florida
Hurricane names for 2025 season
Here are the names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, along with how to pronounce them:
Andrea (June 24)
Barry (June 29)
Chantal (July 5)
Dexter: DEHK-ster
Erin: AIR-rin
Fernand: fair-NAHN
Gabrielle: ga-bree-ELL
Humberto: oom-BAIR-toh
Imelda: ee-MEHL-dah
Jerry: JEHR-ee
Karen: KAIR-ren
Lorenzo: loh-REN-zoh
Melissa: meh-LIH-suh
Nestor: NES-tor
Olga: OAL-guh
Pablo: PAHB-lo
Rebekah: reh-BEH-kuh
Sebastien: se-BAS-tee-en
Tanya: TAHN-yuh
Van: van
Wendy: WEN-dee
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
National Hurricane Center map: See what forecasters watching now
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Why does NHC say 'tropical cyclone' on its maps instead of hurricane or tropical storm?
Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it's in the tropical Atlantic basin.
To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a "rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation," NOAA sadi.
Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated:
: for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific.
: for storms in the Northwest Pacific.
: for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean.
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
Stay informed. Get weather alerts via text
What's next?
We will update our tropical weather coverage daily.
Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here.
This story has been updated to include new information.
This article originally appeared on Sarasota Herald-Tribune: NOAA: Invest 93L track, path, spaghetti models. Sarasota area impact
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
CBS News
2 hours ago
- CBS News
Quick-moving storms could bring small hail, heavy downpours to parts of Massachusetts Sunday
The WBZ Weather Team is issuing a Next Weather Alert for several rounds of storms on the way Sunday. New England is included in the severe weather outlook for Sunday. We are currently under a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for strong storms to turn severe. While this threat is on the lower end, it is worth monitoring any plans outside for thunderstorm activity. This includes the entire state of Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, southern Vermont, and southern New Hampshire. The primary weather hazard with Sunday's storms will be damaging wind gusts. Additionally, small hail and heavy rain are secondary threats with any of these quick-moving storms. The first wave of heavy downpours and storms comes in the morning hours on Sunday. The heaviest clusters at this time will be concentrated towards the South Shore and islands from 6 a.m. to 10 a.m. The second and third waves will be more scattered in nature. But they will still pack a punch as far as strong winds and heavy downpours are concerned. Through dinner time, the greater Boston area will be impacted, with storms as fair game through 10 p.m. Meanwhile, many will experience dry weather and sunshine sporadically through the afternoon, while our target areas receive more rain and clouds. New rainfall totals will vary greatly by location. In spots with high lightning counts and small hail, we could see localized amounts over an inch.
3 hours ago
Severe weather, flash flood threat impact eastern half of US
Around 11 million Americans are under flood alerts Saturday evening as a "ring of fire" weather pattern continues to impact the eastern two-thirds of the country through the weekend. A flash flood emergency was issued near the Washington, D.C., area, including suburban Maryland, such as Chevy Chase and Silver Spring until 9 p.m. ET. The National Weather Service called it a "particularly dangerous situation" and said flash flooding was already occurring. Between 3 to 5 inches of rain has already fallen, but additional rainfall amounts between 1 to 2 inches are possible. Meanwhile, a flood watch was issued for Washington, D.C., until 10 p.m. ET. Overall, locally heavy downpours associated with showers and thunderstorms will continue to raise concerns in regard to flash flooding. Plenty of atmospheric moisture and already saturated grounds will only increase the likelihood of flooding and will exacerbate flooding that is ongoing. Flood watches also remain in effect across portions of Iowa, western Illinois, and northeastern Missouri through Sunday, and for portions of Virginia, and northeastern North Carolina through Saturday night. Areas under a flood watch could see between 2 to 4 inches of rain. A number of Flash Flood Warnings are also in effect across portions of southern Illinois, southern Indiana and northern Kentucky, where heavy rain from thunderstorms moved through. Much of the heavy rainfall and flooding will be localized -- not everywhere will be impacted. However, the potential for heavy rainfall stretches across a good portion of the eastern U.S., which remains under a slight risk for excessive rainfall through tonight. Between 1 to 3 inches are possible depending on where storms track, but locally higher amounts are possible in some spots. Portions of western and central Kentucky, southern Indiana and southeastern Illinois have been elevated to a moderate risk -- level 3 of 4 -- for excessive rainfall through Saturday evening. Rainfall totals between 3 to 5 inches are possible, with rainfall rates potentially reaching 2 to 3 inches per hour. Elsewhere, high pressure centered over the Southeast will keep dangerously hot and humid conditions in that region, but strong to severe storms along the perimeter of the high will remain possible across portions of the Plains, Midwest and even across portions of the East Coast. Severe thunderstorm watches remain in effect for portions of southern Maryland, northeastern North Carolina and Virginia until 10 p.m. ET Saturday. The primary threats include damaging winds, with gusts up to 65 mph possible, and isolated large hail up to an inch in diameter. To the west, portions of Nebraska remain under a tornado watch until 11 p.m. CT Saturday. A severe thunderstorm watch is also in effect for portions of eastern Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota and far northeastern Wyoming until 12 a.m. MT. Damaging winds, with gusts up to 70 mph are possible, along with the potential for very large hail measuring as much as 2.5 inches in diameter. Over 13 million across 13 states are under a slight risk -- level 2 of 5 -- for severe weather through the night. Damaging winds and the potential for flash flooding remains a threat for all areas, but powerful storms that develop over parts of the Plains and Midwest could generate large to very large hail and even a few tornadoes. While parts of the Dakotas are under a slight risk for severe weather on Sunday, parts of Northeast could also encounter strong to severe storms as well. This includes big cities like New York City, Boston and Albany -- which are all under a slight risk, mainly for damaging winds and the potential for hail.
Fox News
5 hours ago
- Fox News
Missing Florida man who wandered away at popular New England tourist destination found dead
A 79-year-old Florida man was found dead Friday morning after going missing from the summit of Mount Washington in New Hampshire, the state Fish and Game Department confirmed in a social media post. Officials said search crews had located the body of William Davis after a difficult three-day operation involving helicopters, drones and dozens of ground personnel atop the popular New England summer tourist destination. "It is a tragic end to a tough search mission and the Fish and Game Department would like to thank all the volunteers and staff who worked tirelessly to bring Davis back to his family," the department said in a Facebook post. Davis, of Jacksonville, Florida, reached the summit by way of the Mount Washington Cog Railway on Wednesday afternoon, the Fish and Game Department said in a news release Thursday. He was last seen near the visitor center around 3:20 p.m., after taking a photo with his wife. Soon after, he separated from her and walked toward the trail area alone. At some point, Davis made brief contact with a state park employee by cellphone. He reported being off-trail and described his surroundings but could not explain his location. His phone died during the call. Search teams were notified shortly after 6 p.m. and began looking for him that evening. Crews initially focused on the western side of the summit. Fish and Game officers, park staff, and volunteers from Androscoggin Valley Search and Rescue used drones and ground teams to search the area into early Thursday morning. Fog and wind slowed progress, and no sign of Davis was found, according to officials. On Friday morning, search teams shifted their focus to the eastern and southern slopes of the mountain. Weather conditions had worsened. Rain, clouds, and high winds moved in. Temperatures hovered in the low 40s, and wind chill readings dropped to near freezing. Mount Washington is known for sudden weather changes, rocky terrain, and limited visibility, even in summer. Wind chills can dip below freezing without warning. Although the summit is accessible by car and train, trails just beyond the visitor center can turn treacherous for anyone unfamiliar with mountain hiking. Dozens of rescues are conducted on the mountain each year. At around 11 a.m. On Friday, AVSAR volunteers found Davis's body about 400 feet off the Lion Head Trail. The location was between the Alpine Garden and Tuckerman Ravine Trails, both of which run through rocky and exposed terrain. Rescue officials said Davis appeared to have suffered a serious fall. A Black Hawk helicopter crew from the New Hampshire Army National Guard was conducting a training mission nearby and was able to assist with the recovery efforts during a short break in the weather, officials said. An autopsy is pending at the state medical examiner. Authorities have not determined how Davis ended up in the remote area where he was found. The New Hampshire Fish and Game Department did not immediately respond to Fox News Digital's request for further comment.
