Mandal 2.0: Caste count to set stage for another churn in Uttar Pradesh politics?

Hindustan Times

29-05-2025

Slogans often define the politics of the times and a state. In Uttar Pradesh, the catch phrase, 'Jiski jitni sankhya bhari, uski utni hissedari (proportionate share according to population),' has been symbolic of the dominance of caste as a factor in almost every election.
Over the years, the state has witnessed a few mini caste surveys though, officially, the nationwide caste count to be done with the upcoming national census now will be the first such pan-India exercise since 1931.
Vociferously demanded by the Opposition and initially opposed by the BJP, caste enumeration has been accepted by the ruling party, setting the stage for a churn over three decades after the Mandal commission recommendations changed the political discourse.
The new exercise could lead to the firming up of or redrawing of strategy by parties which expect a keen poll battle in Uttar Pradesh where the next assembly elections are due in 2027 and where previous mini-surveys have put the OBC population at over 50%. The caste enumeration is likely to be completed in 2026.
Political observers note that after Bihar, where the Nitish Kumar-led government conducted a caste-based survey in 2023, Uttar Pradesh will be the next decisive state where such data could significantly influence electoral strategies.
Indeed, the Modi government's sudden decision to enumerate caste along with the national census in the country, is expected to significantly shape electoral narratives in a state like U.P. that is often described as India's 'caste cauldron' for its deeply entrenched and electorally decisive caste identities.
Past efforts in Uttar Pradesh offer some insights on the caste numbers in the state.
'Previous caste surveys have put the OBC population in the state at around 54% of the total,' said Jai Singh, a research officer in the Uttar Pradesh State Commission for Backward Classes.
According to him, currently there are 79 OBC castes listed as socially and educationally backward, enjoying the quota benefits in government jobs and in admission in government educational institutes etc. Initially, 55 castes were categorised as OBCs in Uttar Pradesh in 1977 when the reservation for the OBCs came into being in the state. The number of OBC castes in U.P. went up post-Mandal commission.
'In U.P, Jats are also counted among the OBCs though they are treated as general caste for the purpose of reservation in Central government's jobs and admission in Central government institutes,' he said.
The fresh caste enumeration, the first in Independent India, he said, may unearth interesting and surprising caste dynamics in the state.
According to him, at least three different committees in the past attempted caste enumeration and recommended their reservation share in government jobs in the state in the past.
SATHI COMMITTEE
In 1975, the Chhedi Lal Sathi committee was formed by then Congress government led by chief minister Hemwati Nandan Bahuguna to identify backward classes and recommend reservation percentages.
The committee, which submitted its report to the state government in 1977, categorised 41 castes as most backward (26% of the state's population), recommending 17% reservation in government jobs. Additionally, 12 castes categorised as upper backward (20% of the population) were recommended for 10% reservation, while 2.5% reservation was suggested for Muslim backward castes (6% of the population). The report also advocated educational support, small-scale industry promotion and political reservation for these groups.
HUKUM SINGH COMMITTEE
In June 2001, the Rajnath Singh-led BJP government in U.P. set up a three-member committee led by then parliamentary affairs minister Hukum Singh. The two other members were the then health minister Ramapati Shastri and Dayaram Pal, a member of Legislative Council (MLC).
The panel found that the benefits of reservations had not percolated down to the most deprived castes as the dominant castes among the OBCs and the SCs had the lion's share in government jobs.
The committee also brought into focus the issue of the quota for the most backward classes (MBCs) within the 27% reservation granted to OBCs. It restructured the OBC reservation system into three groups — A, B, and C. Yadavs/Ahirs were placed in Group A with 5% reservation. Sonar, Jat, Kurmi, and others were put in Group B with 9%, and 70 other castes in Group C with another 9% quota.
The committee, in its over 200-page report submitted on August 31,2001, found that Yadavs and Chamars dominated job reservations. The panel recommended splitting Scheduled Caste reservations into Chamar (10%) and other SCs (11%). The committee also noted a surge in OBC population from 41.13% in 1991 to 54.05% in 2001, with 24 new castes added to the OBC list.
The Rajnath Singh government accepted the recommendations on September 13. Two days later, the Uttar Pradesh Public Service Commission (Reservation for SCs, STs and OBCs) Amendment Ordinance was promulgated by the governor.
The Mayawati government that took the reins in May 2002 withdrew the ordinance, ostensibly because of splitting of the Scheduled Caste quota between Chamars (Jatavs) non-Chamar SCs.
JUSTICE RAGHVENDRA COMMITTEE
In 2018, the Justice Raghvendra Kumar Committee was tasked with evaluating the socio-economic status of backward castes and recommending more targeted reservations. While the detailed recommendations were kept under wraps, people aware of the issue indicated that the report highlighted the dominance of Kurmis and Yadavs in state services and proposed separate quotas for 'Ati Pichhra' (most backward) and 'Ati Dalit' (most deprived) sections.
Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) chief Om Prakash Rajbhar, currently minister in the Yogi Adityanath government, demanded a more robust OBC survey and quota rationalisation. He alleged underrepresentation of non-dominant backward castes after a parting of ways with the first Yogi government in 2019. Leaders from various sub-castes have since echoed the demand. Apna Dal (Sonelal) chief Anupriya Patel, Nishad Party's Sanjay Nishad, and SBSP chief Om Prakash Rajbhar—all part of the BJP-led alliance at some point—have called for caste enumeration as essential for equitable politics.
MANDAL'S LEGACY AND THE RISE OF OBC LEADERS IN U.P.
The implementation of the Mandal Commission report in 1990 reshaped Indian politics by empowering OBC communities and paving the way for a new generation of political leaders, particularly in Uttar Pradesh.
Key OBC leaders who rose during the Mandal wave in the state included Mulayam Singh Yadav, who mobilised backward classes against upper-caste dominance and built the Samajwadi Party's OBC base. Kalyan Singh, a Lodh leader, combined Hindutva with OBC identity politics to expand the BJP's reach among non-Yadav OBCs. Beni Prasad Verma, a prominent Kurmi leader, championed backward class rights at the national level. Swami Prasad Maurya, a Maurya/Kushwaha leader, emerged as a prominent voice for non-Yadav OBCs. Om Prakash Rajbhar championed the cause of extremely backward classes. Shivpal Singh Yadav played a crucial role in consolidating OBC support within the SP. Sanjay Nishad mobilized the Nishad community under the broader OBC umbrella.
These leaders significantly shifted U.P. politics from Congress's dominance to caste-based coalitions, leveraging Mandal's framework of social justice to assert OBC influence in governance and political representation.
Apna Dal (S) chief and Union minister Anupriya Patel, a new-gen politician, wields considerable influence over Kurmi voters, one of the most dominant OBC castes in the state. After the death of her father Sone Lal Patel in 2009, she positioned herself as a vocal voice for Kurmis and other non-Yadav OBCs.
ALL EYES ON BJP'S STAND
With the legacy of Mandal still shaping U.P's political dynamics and a new generation of OBC leaders emerging, the BJP, while cautious, is aware of the churn.
'The rise of OBC leaders post-Mandal reshaped UP's political landscape and a caste census could further redefine power equations. It's not just about appeasement anymore, it's about realigning numbers and ensuring targeted delivery,' a senior BJP leader said. With OBC leaders asserting themselves and opposition parties, particularly the SP and the Congress, championing the issue, the ruling party faces a delicate balancing act.
The BJP, according to political observers, had been on the backfoot since SC, OBC and MBC voters largely deserted it in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh.
'The BJP's volta face on the caste census issue also has to do something with its underwhelming performance in Uttar Pradesh in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls largely due to the OBC-MBC voters turning a cold shoulder to it,' political scientist Shashi Kant Pandey said.
He said that the caste census was the right step provided the census data is used for the purpose of welfare of the people to help them get benefits in proportion to their numbers. 'Caste enumeration could dispel several myths about the perceived population of different castes and their representation in government jobs,' he said. Pandey cautioned that the data might not only fuel resentment among the general castes, especially if it is used to demand a quota hike for OBCs, but could also create friction within the OBCs themselves if data reveals that the most deprived castes among them are not receiving benefits proportional to their population.
The BJP, aiming to maintain its OBC base while preventing caste fissures, may push for a broader socio-economic profiling rather than a pure caste census. But with Mandal-era leaders reasserting themselves and new caste dynamics emerging, the party faces a tough balancing act. As Pandey noted, 'The data could either consolidate backward caste politics or deepen divisions within the OBCs and between castes.' It will be interesting to watch as to how the BJP addresses the complex issue while preventing Hindus from splitting along caste lines — a concern the party as well as the RSS, its ideological parent, has consistently voiced.