Ukraine Reshuffles Government With Wartime Economy Struggling
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Ukraine is set for the biggest government shake-up since Russia's full-scale invasion as the country faces a pressing need to find more money for its defense following failed diplomatic efforts to end the war.
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy nominated Deputy Prime Minister and Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko as new premier on Monday, citing 'her extensive experience in supporting Ukrainian production.' She also played the key role in brokering a landmark minerals deal with the US earlier this year.
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Business Insider
12 minutes ago
- Business Insider
Navigating headwinds: Nigeria's economic outlook for H2 2025
As the second half of 2025 begins, Nigeria finds itself at a critical economic crossroads. With mixed signals emerging from both global and local environments, policymakers, business leaders, and financial institutions must prepare for a delicate balancing act. From shifting geopolitical dynamics to domestic fiscal pressures, the outlook for H2 2025 is characterized by uncertainty but also opportunity. FSDH's latest macroeconomic update, titled 'Balancing on the Edge in a Fragile World,' provides timely insights into what lies ahead and how stakeholders can navigate this complex terrain. Globally, two major developments have reshaped the economic outlook: the return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency and the escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict. Trump's reintroduction of import tariffs—10% across the board, with additional levies on selected countries—has renewed global trade tensions, undermined multilateralism, and triggered capital flow reversals to emerging markets. Meanwhile, the Middle East conflict has disrupted oil supply routes, increased freight costs, and spurred volatility in global commodity prices. These external shocks have led the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to revise its global GDP growth forecast downward to 2.8% in 2025, from an earlier 3.3%. Although Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to grow by 3.8%, driven by structural reforms and improved export performance; however the region remains vulnerable to external shocks, especially in energy markets and financial flows. Domestic Realities: Falling Short of Oil Expectations Nigeria, still heavily reliant on oil, has felt the weight of these developments. Despite commendable efforts to diversify her export base, oil remains the lifeblood of government revenue. The Federal Government's ₦54.99 trillion 2025 budget was benchmarked at US$75 per barrel and 2.06 million barrels per day in production. However, actual performance in H1 2025 has fallen short, with oil prices averaging US$72 per barrel and production consistently below target. This has created a growing fiscal gap and raised questions about Nigeria's ability to meet her ₦35 trillion revenue projection. Positive Signs: PMI Growth and Inflation Tapering Despite these challenges, there are positive signals in the local economy. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), a reliable indicator of economic activity, remained above 50 points between January and May 2025, indicating expansion in key sectors such as agriculture, industry, and services. Inflation, while still high, has begun to decline—from 24.5% in January 2025 to 23% by May 2025—thanks to the combination of improved food supply, relative exchange rate stability, and methodological adjustments by the National Bureau of Statistics. Exchange Rate Stability: Progress or Pause? Exchange rate dynamics have also shown signs of stabilisation. The Naira stood at ₦1,539/US$ as of June 2025, reflecting only a marginal 0.2% depreciation year-to-date. The 'willing buyer, willing seller' FX policy has improved transparency and market confidence, although Nigeria's external reserves declined by 8.5% in H1—from US$40.9 billion to US$37.3 billion—due to rising import bills and debt repayments. FSDH projects that exchange rate stability will depend on continued FX inflows, investor confidence, and fiscal discipline. With oil prices expected to hover around US$75-US$78 per barrel, maintaining production and boosting non-oil exports will be critical. Analysts caution that a renewed slump in oil output or a further deterioration in global trade conditions could reignite currency volatility. Fiscal Reform in Focus: Tax Administration Shake-Up A major turning point in H1 2025 came in June, when President Tinubu signed four transformational tax reform bills into law. These include the Nigeria Tax Act, Nigeria Tax Administration Act, Joint Revenue Board Act, and Nigeria Revenue Service Act. Collectively, these reforms aim to harmonise tax administration, improve compliance, and empower a new, independent national revenue service. Highlights of the reforms include raising the Capital Gains Tax for corporates from 10% to 30%, introducing a Development Levy on large firms, zero-rating VAT for essential goods, and exempting small businesses with under ₦100 million turnover from filing taxes. The reforms are expected to grow Nigeria's tax-to-GDP ratio from 10% to 18% within three years. While implementation remains a hurdle—especially at state and local levels—this marks a significant shift in Nigeria's revenue strategy. In the capital markets, optimism is quietly building. The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) posted a 16.6% year-to-date return as of June 2025, outperforming many global indices. Banking and consumer goods stocks led gains, buoyed by strong corporate earnings and macro reforms. Treasury Bill yields and long-term bond rates have declined, signaling renewed investor appetite for Nigerian assets. Foreign Portfolio Investments (FPIs) flows have increased significantly, hitting US$5.46 billion in Q1—a 67% jump from the previous quarter. This resurgence has been fueled by FX reform, positive real interest rates, and improved clarity on policy direction. However, the risk of 'hot money' outflows remains, underscoring the need for deeper, longer-term capital investments. Strategic Priorities for H2 2025 Looking ahead, FSDH outlined several strategic imperatives for economic stakeholders in H2 2025. First, there is an urgent need to boost oil production, not just to meet budget benchmarks, but to enhance export earnings. Second, the country must deepen its non-oil export capabilities, especially in agriculture and manufacturing, to diversify FX sources. Third, unlocking private-sector credit by reducing the high Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) remains key to real sector growth. Fourth, leveraging ongoing tax reforms to enhance state-level revenue and improve the business climate is vital. Importantly, Nigeria's digital economy and financial technology space also hold promise. The integration of AI, open banking frameworks, and digital payment systems are transforming how financial services are delivered. FSDH notes that institutions that embed digital transformation into their service models will lead in agility, customer retention, and market expansion. Cautious Optimism: Nigeria's Path Forward While global risks remain—from U.S. monetary policy to geopolitical tensions and potential oil shocks—Nigeria has the tools to stay on a path of gradual stabilisation. The success of H2 2025 will depend on disciplined execution of reforms, coordinated fiscal and monetary policy, and institutional accountability. Nigeria's economic outlook for the rest of 2025 is cautiously optimistic. Inflation is expected to decline further which may allow for monetary easing later in the year. The Naira is likely to remain within the current range, while GDP growth will be modest, driven by agriculture, services, and rising investor interest. Structural reforms are beginning to take root, but the second half of the year will require political will, macroprudential discipline, and bold leadership. And as FSDH aptly notes in its report, 'Resilience is not just about surviving the storm; it's about building structures that thrive within it.' Nigeria has the opportunity to prove that in H2 2025.
Forbes
12 minutes ago
- Forbes
Will Oil Demand Hit 123 Million Barrels Per Day By 2050 As OPEC Says?
(Photo: Bob Riha, Jr.) Earlier this month, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries made yet another attempt to counter energy market chatter about oil demand peaking over the medium- to long-term. At its biennial international seminar in Vienna, Austria from July 9 to 10, the oil producers' group said there was ample evidence in the market for the long-term need for black gold. This need has now reached a point of definitiveness that no one is talking about peak oil demand any more if OPEC's World Oil Outlook 2050 - a fresh assessment report on emerging energy market trends - is to be believed. In the foreword of the report, published just before the conclusion of the seminar, OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said: "There is no peak oil demand on the horizon," given that "oil underpins the global economy and is central to our daily lives." That said the producers' group actually cut its global oil demand forecasts for the next four years faced with lower growth in China, a spread of electric vehicles in key markets, and an uncertain macroeconomic climate in the OECD countries. However, it lifted its longer-term view. Crude Projections On Oil Demand That view is based on an assumption that oil will remain 'indispensable' in supporting the economic progress of developing countries, and ensuring the steady output of mission critical hard-to-abate sectors like heavy industry, aviation and haulage. As for the projection figures, the OPEC report forecast that oil demand will average 105 million barrels per day this year. It then expects demand to grow to average 106.3 million bpd in 2026, and then rise to 111.6 million bpd in 2029, and continue rising to as high as 123 million bpd by 2050. 'Despite a marginal decline in its share, oil is set to maintain the largest share in the energy mix in 2050, at just below 30%. The combined share of oil and gas is expected to stay above 50% between 2024 and 2050. At the same time, the share of other renewables in the energy mix increases to 13.5% in 2050, up by 10 percentage points from 2024,' the report noted further. India, along with other Asian nations, the Middle East and Africa, are set to be the 'primary sources of long-term oil demand growth.' Combined demand in these four regions is set to increase by 22.4 million bpd between 2024 and 2050, the OPEC report noted, with India alone adding 8.2 million bpd. 'China's oil demand is projected to increase by less than 2 million bpd over the same time horizon. Moreover, a large part of China's increase is expected to occur over the medium-term, with fewer demand changes expected for the rest of the forecast period.' Not Quite Some Say However, OPEC's long-term oil demand projections don't quite align with what a number of other commentators think. The International Energy Agency expects global oil demand to peak at 105.6 million bpd in 2029 before marginally declining as the end of the current decade approaches. Some in the industry also believe peak demand for oil is imminent this decade. Energy major BP said last year that it even may happen sooner than most people expect, including as early as this year under a specific set of circumstances, and given the rapid growth of renewable energy. Meanwhile, the Energy Institute's recent Statistical Review of World Energy 2025, a global report that was once compiled by BP until very recently, did not directly predict a peak, but noted that some regions and nations - especially China - are seeing a slowdown or plateau in oil demand. Given a 2050 horizon is more than two decades and a half away from now, predicting a peaking of oil demand or otherwise may have a direct corelation with the make-up of the global economy and varying regional productivity levels, boosted by digital tools, each year. Maxime Darmet, Senior Economist for U.S., France and the UK at Allianz Trade said: 'In the coming decades, global productivity will be shaped by the adoption of digital technologies such as artificial intelligence and the enhancements and efficiencies they bring. This will likely drive up energy consumption, but also the efficient usage of energy. Countries that take the lead here would steal a march on others.' The Allianz Trade economist believes given the time horizon when it comes to predicting energy consumption and which source would dominate 25 to 30 years from now will likely be a tricky guesstimate at best. 'Look at the turmoil the global economy is currently facing in the wake of U.S. tariffs slapped by President Donald Trump. Such developments can change the trajectory of demand (and supply) of most commodities however long or short that impact is. Oil is no exception.' Furthermore, if the future of productivity, and indeed the global economy, is digital and AI driven requiring hyperscale data centers, then many including the likes of the IEA, energy majors Shell and Chevron, believe natural gas will likely be the near- to longer-term energy source that benefits. Be that as it may, few dispute that hydrocarbons will be part of the global economy and its energy mix for a while yet. Just that oil - OPEC's preferred one - might not be as dominant a source as the producers' group expects and hopes it would be. Therefore, the debate over peak oil demand and when it will occur won't be settled just yet.
Yahoo
28 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Buried in Trump's beautiful bill is a new $250 fee on travelers to the U.S. Estimates project it could cut the federal deficit by nearly $30 billion
A provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act states all visitors who need nonimmigrant visas to enter the U.S.—tourists, business travelers and international students, to name a few—must pay a 'visa integrity fee,' currently priced at $250. Travelers who comply with their visa conditions will be eligible for reimbursement. The provision is estimated to bring in $28.9 billion over the next decade. Visitors to the United States will need to pay a new fee to enter the country, according to the Trump administration's recently enacted bill. A provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act states all visitors who need nonimmigrant visas to enter the U.S.—tourists, business travelers and international students, to name a few—must pay a 'visa integrity fee,' currently priced at $250. The fee cannot be waived or reduced, but travelers are able to get their fees reimbursed, the provision states. All told, the Congressional Budget Office estimates the new fee could cut the federal deficit by $28.9 billion over the next ten years. During the same period, the CBO expects the Department of the State to issue about 120 million nonimmigrant visas. In 2023 alone, more than 10.4 million nonimmigrants were issued visas, according to DOS data. CBO expects a 'small number' of people will seek reimbursement, as many nonimmigrant visas are valid for several years. CBO also expects the Department of State would need several years to implement a process for providing reimbursements. Still, the fee could generate billions, the agency estimates. The fee is set at $250 during the U.S. fiscal year 2025, which ends Sept. 30, and must be paid when the visa is issued, according to the provision. The secretary of Homeland Security can set the current fee higher, the provision states. During each subsequent fiscal year, the fee will be adjusted for inflation. Those eligible for reimbursement are visa holders who comply with conditions of the visa, which include not accepting unauthorized employment or not overstaying their visa validity date by more than five days, according to the provision. Senior Equity Analyst at CFRA Research Ana Garcia told Fortune in an email she expects the 'vast majority' of affected travelers to be eligible for reimbursement, as historical U.S. Congressional Research Service data indicates that only 1% to 2% of nonimmigrant visitors overstayed their visas between 2016 and 2022. 'The fee's design as a refundable security deposit, contingent upon visa compliance, should mitigate concerns among legitimate travelers.' Garcia wrote. Reimbursements will be made after the travel visa expires, the provision said. Any fees not reimbursed will be deposited into America's Checkbook, or the General Fund of the Government. What's unclear is the effective date of the 'visa integrity fee.' Steven A. Brown, a partner at the Houston-based immigration law firm Reddy Neumann Brown PC, wrote in a post on his firm's website the fee's 'specific start dates have not yet been confirmed.' Brown points out that the fee is an add-on to others already required by U.S. travelers. 'For example, an H-1B worker already paying a $205 application fee may now expect to pay a total of $455 once this fee is in place,' Brown wrote. Most travelers are also required to pay a fee that comes with submitting a Form 1-94 arrival and departure record. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act increased this charge from $6 to $24. CFRA's Garcia expects demand to be unmoved by the fee, considering 'higher-income' consumers comprise the majority of international leisure and business travelers to the U.S. 'For affluent travelers, the additional $250 represents a manageable increment relative to overall trip costs,' Garcia wrote. 'The fee structure appears strategically designed to enhance compliance rather than broadly restrict travel.' This story was originally featured on Solve the daily Crossword
