Months-long 40C heatwaves could become the new normal in the UK, Met Office warns

Independent

21 hours ago

Temperatures in the UK could soon soar to 40C and beyond, new analysis from the Met Office has found, as Britain continues to experience sweltering heat.
The record for the hottest temperature ever recorded in the UK remains 40.3C in summer 2022, in Coningsby, Lincolnshire. But heats of 45C or more 'may be possible' in today's climate, the forecaster says.
Experts from the office have given a 50:50 chance that a heatwave of this unprecedented level could occur in the UK within the next 12 years. And alongside the incredible heat, the weather phenomenon could also last for months at a time.
The Met Office reached the findings by using global models to create a large number of climate outcomes in current conditions.
Their study, published in Weather Journal, shows the chance of temperatures hitting 40C is more than 20 times more likely than it was in the 1960s, and has almost trebled since the year 2000.
Dr Gillian Kay, senior scientist at the office and lead author of the study, said: 'The chance of exceeding 40C has been rapidly increasing, and it is now over 20 times more likely than it was in the 1960s.
'Because our climate continues to warm, we can expect the chance to keep rising.
'We estimate a 50:50 chance of seeing a 40C day again in the next 12 years.
'We also found that temperatures several degrees higher than we saw in July 2022 are possible in today's climate.'
Looking at heatwaves, the Met Office study found that 'much more severe' extremes could occur in the current climate.
Their climate model shows that up to two-thirds of summer days could be above the heatwave threshold of 28C in south-east England, with more than a month in continuous heatwave. Up to 12 consecutive days above 35C is also possible, the study says.
The ongoing 'mini-heatwave' in the UK could reach highs of 32C this week as parts of the country grapple with drought and heat-related health issues. The heatwave of 2022 contributed to the deaths of 3,000 people, it was found, most over 65.
Met Office experts said the findings showed the need to prepare and plan for the impacts of rising temperatures and extreme heat.
Dr Nick Dunstone, Met Office science fellow and co-author of the study, said: 'The well-known hot summer of 1976 had more than a fortnight above 28°C, which is a key heatwave threshold in south-east England.
'Our study finds that in today's climate such conditions could persist for a month or more.
'These findings highlight the need to prepare and plan for the impacts of rising temperatures now, so we can better protect public health, infrastructure, and the environment from the growing threat of extreme heat.'