Chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth drop from record high. What's the current impact risk?
Asteroid 2024 YR4, estimated to be about 130 to 300 feet wide, initially had a 1% probability of hitting Earth, which then increased to 2.3%. On Feb. 18, the chances increased to 3.1%, the highest impact probability NASA has ever recorded for an object of its size or larger.
However, on Wednesday, Feb. 19, new data reduced the impact probability to 1.5%.
Recent observations have also determined that there is a small, 0.8% chance of the asteroid impacting the moon.
"NASA expects the impact probability to continue to evolve as new observations of asteroid 2024 YR4 are made over the coming days and weeks," wrote NASA in a blog post.
As previously reported by USA TODAY, the asteroid will continue to be visible from Earth through April, giving astronomers some time to gather data with ground-based telescopes. While the asteroid won't again be observable from Earth until June 2028, NASA's James Webb Space Telescope will be able to study it in March from orbit.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 currently has a 1.5% probability of hitting Earth.
Although the chances of the asteroid colliding with Earth are slim, 2024 YR4 rates a 3 out of 10 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, a method for astronomers to categorize and rate the threat of near-Earth objects.
According to NASA, it is uncommon for an asteroid to be rated a 3, because that can only happen for asteroids larger than 65 feet with an impact probability of 1% or greater, which is considered "quite rare" for an object of this size.
The asteroid was first reported in Chile on Jan. 27, 2025 after a close approach with Earth on Dec. 25.
Astronomers predict the asteroid could collide with Earth on Dec. 22, 2032.
The International Asteroid Warning Network put out a list of possible impact locations should a collision with Earth occur. The predicted locations range from uninhabited or sparsely populated areas to densely populated areas.
Possible impact locations extend across the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia.
According to the network, potential blast damage could occur as far as 31 miles from the impact site.
Despite it's small size, some experts have dubbed 2024 YRF as a "city killer" due it's potential to cause significant devastation in a populous area.
'If you put it over Paris or London or New York, you basically wipe out the whole city and some of the environs,' Bruce Betts, chief scientist of The Planetary Society, told AFP.
The asteroid may tracked using NASA's small database lookup.
Contributing: USA TODAY
Diana Leyva covers trending news and service journalism for The Tennessean. Contact her at Dleyva@gannett.com or follow her on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, at @_leyvadiana
This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: Asteroid 2024 YR4 impact risk: What are the chances of hitting Earth
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