Super Bowl LIX Eagles vs. Chiefs roundtable: Expert picks, bold predictions from Rotoworld staff

NBC Sports

08-02-2025

Patrick Daugherty and Denny Carter discuss how to navigate DFS picks for Super Bowl LIX, and how you can get "unique" by leaving Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley out of your lineups.
With Super Bowl LIX a little over 24 hours away, the Rotoworld crew gathered around to touch on what they believe it will take for each team to win, what a third-straight Super Bowl title would mean for Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, and how they believe things will ultimately unfold come Sunday.
The Chiefs win on Sunday if...
Denny Carter: I think KC will edge the Eagles if their short-area pass catchers -- namely Xavier Worthy and Travis Kelce -- can be productive after the catch. It's a tall task against a Philly defense that allowed the fourth lowest adjusted yards per attempt on passes between 0-10 yards this season. The Chiefs are going to get nothing downfield; they'll have to be ultra-efficient in the short areas.
Kyle Dvorchak: Kansas City wins by taking an early lead and keeping its foot on the gas. The Eagles are capable of making a comeback, but it's not what they're built for.
Lawrence Jackson Jr.: If they continue to out-coach their opponents and win the situational football battles like they always do. They also cannot allow the Eagles' defense to get pressure with four pass rushers while the defensive backs have success in coverage, both of which they are capable of. Chiefs have to pick their poison on defense and keep the Eagles off-balanced on offense.
Patrick Daugherty: We get a normal football game. Normality is the Chiefs' friend. Normality means limited turnovers and sacks. Normality means grinding drives that end with points. It doesn't really matter if it's field goals or touchdowns. This iteration of the Chiefs has won more normal football games than any team in NFL history. The Eagles need variance.
Zachary Krueger: They stick to the plan. It's hard to imagine one of the best quarterbacks in the game also being one of the league's more conservative passers, but Mahomes and the Chiefs know what's gotten them here. Over the last three seasons, the Chiefs have been in the bottom 10 in both ADOT and deep throw rate but have been in the top 10 in EPA per dropback and YPA over that span. How does this happen? Good downfield blocking and perfect execution. The Eagles' young pass defense has been surprisingly strong this season, and has allowed the third-lowest yards after catch per reception (YAC/REC) on passes of 5.0 air yards or less. The Chiefs' offense, on the other hand, has the 10th-highest YAC/REC on those passes. This is a strength-on-strength matchup that the Chiefs will need to win if they hope to three-peat on Sunday.
The Eagles win on Sunday if...
Carter: The Eagles have a great shot of knocking off the Chiefs if AJ Brown continues dominating against man coverage looks, the way he has throughout the past two seasons. The Chiefs, I think, will sell out to stop Saquon Barkley and see if Jalen Hurts is up to the task. Hurts could (should) target Brown heavily in such a scenario, and Brown -- who topped the league in yards per route against man coverage schemes in 2024 -- could make Kansas City pay.
Dvorchak: The Eagles need to defend the short area perfectly. They have done so all year, but no one executes those throws better than Mahomes and the Chiefs. If Philly can shut down KC's quick-passing game, they can neutralize Mahomes.
Jackson: If they don't get tricked out of leaving who they came to the prom with, and that's mostly Saquon Barkley. I'm not one of these ignorant folks who thinks Jalen Hurts is incapable of throwing the ball at a high level, but Barkley was the best player in the NFL this season behind Lamar Jackson. Don't get scared away from the run game. In the passing game, I expect the Eagles to take what the defense gives them. For the Eagles on defense, you've got to find a way to get Mahomes off his mark; it's a simple answer but not a simple task.
Daugherty: If the Chiefs' run defense falls apart. Kansas City has been uneven on the ground but highly adaptable. If it ends up Sunday they don't actually have the horses, they're going to have to commit too many extra resources up front, and then A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith can start soul reaving down the field. Steve Spagnuolo has had an answer for almost everything, but it would be difficult to come up with a solution for that.
Krueger: Saquon Barkley does 'Saquon Barkley' things. Jalen Hurts is unfairly criticized as a passer, but look no further than the man who rushed for 2,005 yards and scored 15 touchdowns as the primary reason the Eagles are where they are. Having an elite run-blocking unit and a top-five defense also helps. The Eagles are unlikely to win the coaching battle, but Barkley can make life easier for Nick Sirianni and the offense by keeping the offense on schedule and breaking off one or two of his signature long runs. This would force the Chiefs into a more aggressive style of play, which could play into Philly's hand.
Kyle Dvorchak,
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Denny Carter,
What would a third-straight Super Bowl (fourth overall) mean for the legacy of Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid?
Carter: Because Mahomes lost to Tom Brady in the Super Bowl, he can never really be the greatest quarterback of all time in the public's imagination. Mahomes' Super Bowl loss to Tampa -- which was no fault of his own -- sealed the deal. But I think Mahomes can establish himself as the clear No. 2 of all time with a win here or in any of the handful of other Super Bowl appearances he'll make over the rest of his career.
Dvorchak: For the enlighted among us, Mahomes is already the GOAT. A fourth Super Bowl only serves to close the gap between him and Tom Brady for the non-believers.
Jackson: It would mean they are in NFL immortality because no team has done it. It's hard to make the playoffs every season, and these guys have turned the Super Bowl into the Kansas City Chiefs Invitational. Both Reid and Mahomes would substantially close the gap on being the GOAT in their respective lanes.
Daugherty: There's a desperate desire amongst certain people to equate this Chiefs group with the Patriots' multi-decade dynasty. Not even a third straight Super Bowl would equal that yet. What it would do is give the Chiefs something no other franchise has — three straight Lombardis — while keeping them on a methodical track to eventually catch or even surpass the Brady/Belichick Pats.
Krueger: It would be the one thing Tom Brady and Bill Belichick did not accomplish. The conversation for the all-time quarterback/head coaching duo starts and ends with those two, but a third-straight Super Bowl victory for Mahomes and Reid moves them closer to the top of the conversation, with plenty of time left to stand alone at the top before all is said and done. Brady won three Super Bowls before his 30th birthday. Mahomes, who will turn 30 this September, has already hit that mark. A fourth would keep him well on pace to tie/top Brady's career total, and possibly in a much quicker fashion.
What is one bold prediction for Sunday's game?
Carter: I think the Chiefs will be the first team to kinda sorta stop Barkley. KC's defense adjusts to the other team's strengths, and no team's strength is more clearly in the run game. I foresee a frustrating outing for Barkley.
Dvorchak: Kansas City keeps Saquon Barkley in check. The Chiefs were one of the best teams at preventing explosive runs this year. Steve Spagnuolo is going to make Jalen Hurts beat him.
Jackson: Jalen Hurts will convincingly be the Super Bowl MVP over my actual pick in Saquon Barkley (you see what I did there). Hurts is right there with Patrick Mahomes as far as on-field mental toughness for quarterbacks goes, and he is one of the best pocket passers in football.
Daugherty: That there will be no surprises. These are two teams committed to execution. Neither is going to try to reinvent the wheel on Super Bowl Sunday. Whoever plays the best brand of their 'regular football' is going to win.
Krueger: An Eagles passing game, which ranked 29th in yards per game and 32nd in pass attempts per game, surprises the general public with a few explosive plays they didn't see coming. The folks who equate raw passing totals to the overall quality of a team's offensive attack would be surprised to know that this season, the Eagles passing game ranked fourth in adjusted completion percentage on passes of 10-plus air yards (60.6 percent) and had the sixth-highest explosive play rate — plays that generated 20 or more yards — amongst teams this season (10.9 percent) through the air. It's also worth noting, per PFF, that the Chiefs tied with the Giants for the ninth-most explosive passing plays (54) this season.
How do you see things playing out Sunday?
Carter: I find it hard to imagine a game with sideways game script here. Like almost every Chiefs game, I think this comes down to the fourth quarter, and no one is better in late game situations than Mahomes. He's simply unbeatable in those scenarios. I say the Chiefs win 27-24.
Dvorchak: The Chiefs win a tight, 27-20 game with a little magic from Mahomes and better execution in high-leverage spots. The haters cry 'rigged' when the best quarterback of all time out-plays his opponent, and one of the best coaches of all time out-coaches his opponent. Who could have seen this coming?
Jackson: I see the Eagles sticking with the run against the Chiefs (unlike the Bills in the AFC Championship) and it being effective. If it's not, get ready for A.J Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert. The game goes down to the wire, but the Eagles pull away late and beat the Chiefs 34-24.
Daugherty: Like every Chiefs game in recent memory. They never really pull away, but the opposition never truly threatens. The final will look close. It will indeed *be* close. It just won't really feel that way. The Chiefs win some variation of a 24-21 ballgame.
Krueger: The Chiefs had one 'legitimate' loss this season, which came in a 30-21 loss to the Bills in Week 11. It requires a near-perfect effort to beat the Chiefs. The Eagles execute well and have the pieces in place to bring down this Chiefs team on any given Sunday. That said, the Chiefs still hold the advantage at head coach and quarterback and are 60 minutes from making history. While they may not always be flashy, they are effective. I expect Reid and Mahomes to find counters to whatever the Eagles throw their way and walk away victorious in a 24-20 win.