AFL 2025: Every club's run home and predicted ladder position
The Bulldogs are still walking a tightrope, but the highest-scoring team in the competition now appears in the best position of the trio to lock up a finals spot.
Down the other end of the ladder, Richmond could finish with the provisional picks two and three in the draft.
DO YOUR OWN PREDICTED LADDER; THEN SCROLL DOWN TO SEE OURS 1. ADELAIDE
Played: 20, Won: 15, Lost: 5, Percentage: 144.1
Collingwood is the final roadblock in the way of a stunning minor premiership for the Crows, who have not played finals since the last time they topped the ladder in 2017.
Geelong, who trail by a game and 5.5 per cent, have been scoring heavily against the weaker sides and still have Essendon and Richmond to come, meaning Matthew Nicks' side almost certainly needs to win all three to secure the honour. 2. COLLINGWOOD
Played: 20, Won: 15, Lost: 5, Percentage: 130.8
Thursday night is crucial for Collingwood – find form against the Hawks, and the Pies can lock in a top-four spot and vie with Adelaide for top position the following week.
Lose both though and the Magpies could finish the season in fifth – an outcome that was unthinkable less than a month ago.
Jeremy Howe's fitness will be crucial this week and for the rest of the season as his fellow defenders are low on confidence without him. 3. BRISBANE LIONS
Played: 20, Won: 14, Drawn: 1, Lost: 5, Percentage: 112.1
Down the highway to Gold Coast was not a fun trip for Brisbane, but no club outside Queensland has enjoyed when the reigning premiers have come to visit this year.
The win over the Pies was a mature response which leaves a top-two spot on the cards if they can beat Fremantle in the west.
In the Chris Fagan era, the Lions are 3-3 against the Dockers at Optus Stadium.
The toughest post-bye rounds fixture of any side means it will be a herculean effort if they avoid another lapse in the last three games – we think they will drop one of them. 4. GEELONG
Played: 20, Won: 14, Lost: 6, Percentage: 138.6
Jeremy Cameron ton watchers are licking their lips, and the Cats can boost their percentage sky-high with opportunities to bully Essendon and Richmond in the final three games.
Second place or even a surprise minor premiership is now firmly in the equation, but they could still slide into fifth with a slip-up at the SCG and need to treat it as a final.
This week will be the one where the Cats manage their older players with a view to hitting Sydney with a full head of steam. 5. FREMANTLE
Played: 20, Won: 14, Lost: 6, Percentage: 113
Carlton gave Fremantle a mini reality check in Perth, and Hayden Young's groin complaint is troubling ahead of two 'eight-point' games against the Lions and Bulldogs to finish the home and away season.
But the Blues clash was exactly the sort of game where the 2024 Dockers would have caved under pressure, and this group will take great confidence from problem-solving their way out of trouble.
Beat Brisbane or the Dogs, and the Dockers can lock in a home elimination final. 6. GOLD COAST
Played: 19, Won: 13, Lost: 6, Percentage: 125.1
Gold Coast has all but confirmed its maiden finals berth, but won't be content to stop there.
Winning all four games could sneak the Suns past their Queensland rivals into fourth spot, but it will require maturity at their bogey venue Marvel Stadium and against an under-pressure GWS the week after.
They must also be far more competitive in Adelaide than at their last visit to beat the Power in Ken Hinkley's final game as coach. 7. HAWTHORN
Played: 20, Won: 13, Lost: 7, Percentage: 117.6
Hawthorn might be left to rue its missed chances in the final quarter against Adelaide, as now even a win over the Magpies or Lions would not be enough to guarantee eighth spot.
The Hawks will throw the kitchen sink at an out-of-sorts Collingwood on Thursday night, but does their midfield have enough weapons to trouble the Pies without Will Day?
Broadcasters might barrack for a Collingwood win to set up a final round Gabba epic with the Lions vying for the top-four and the Hawks desperate to qualify for September. 8. GWS GIANTS
Played: 20, Won: 13, Lost: 7, Percentage: 111.3
A visit to Canberra and some moral support from the 'Tom Green Fan Club' might just be the tonic that the Giants need after an insipid performance against the Bulldogs threatened to derail their finals hopes last week.
Unless they can boost their percentage above Hawthorn or the Dogs bottle it against Melbourne or West Coast, GWS will need to hit 15 wins to secure a finals spot.
But an upset win over the Suns on the road could yet propel them into sixth. 9. WESTERN BULLDOGS
Played: 20, Won: 12, Lost: 8, Percentage: 137.3
No one wants to sit in ninth, but the Bulldogs should feel slightly more comfortable than the Hawks and Giants despite starting a game behind heading into the last three weeks.
Melbourne will be tricky to face at the MCG, where the Dogs have not played since their round 3 loss to Collingwood.
But beat the Dees, and pending other results the Dogs could sew up finals qualification with a win over West Coast the following week.
The thumping win over GWS might have punched the Bulldogs' September ticket. 10. SYDNEY SWANS
Played: 20, Won: 10, Lost: 10, Percentage: 95
It's over for the Swans this year, but it will be interesting to see whether the frustrated side draws on any notion of grand final revenge to try to inflict some damage on the Lions' or Cats' ladder positions.
West Coast will be a fiery opponent in the last round if they enter the game needing a win to avoid the first one-win season since GWS in 2013. 11. PORT ADELAIDE
Played: 20, Won: 8, Lost: 12, Percentage: 79.8
A weary Port Adelaide has two chances at home to frustrate Fremantle and Gold Coast, but it feels unlikely that they will be able to summon enough to beat either.
Carlton's effort against Fremantle was enough to flip that projected result from previous weeks, which would leave them with a bottom-six finish that no one expected after a preliminary final last year. 12. MELBOURNE
Played: 20, Won: 7, Lost: 13, Percentage: 95
Their three opponents have it all to play for, but the Dees could still be capable of pushing the contenders at the MCG.
Steven May remains suspended for the Bulldogs clash, which will hurt against an in-form Sam Darcy and Aaron Naughton 13. CARLTON
Played: 20, Won: 7, Lost: 13, Percentage: 92.1
The Blues' fight against the Dockers was enough to convince us to flip the result of the round 23 clash against Port Adelaide, but any further injury damage against the Suns this week would dent their hopes of ending a horror campaign with consecutive wins. 14. ST KILDA
Played: 20, Won: 7, Lost: 13, Percentage: 87.4
With Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera firing the way he is, the Saints should have too much pace and skill through the middle for the Tigers and Bombers over the next fortnight.
They never make it easy for GWS, either. 15. ESSENDON
Played: 19, Won: 6, Lost: 13, Percentage: 72
It might get ugly in Geelong this week for the injury-riddled Bombers, who fought bravely against Sydney but now need to back that up after a six-day break.
Supporters would be stirred if they could pinch a win with their inexperienced side in the final four games. 16. RICHMOND
Played: 20, Won: 5, Lost: 15, Percentage: 65.5
There's no disincentive for Richmond not to give it a red-hot crack against North Melbourne in its round 23 clash in Hobart.
The Tigers own the Kangaroos' first-round pick, so their draft hand will not change if they hold their advantage on the ladder. 17. NORTH MELBOURNE
Played: 20, Won: 4, Drawn: 1, Lost: 15, Percentage: 73.4
That Hobart clash is crucial for North Melbourne and Alastair Clarkson – defeat would effectively concede that the Tigers have leapfrogged them in the rebuild stakes after just 12 months down the bottom. 18. WEST COAST
Played: 20, Won: 1, Lost: 19, Percentage: 61.9
Last week's loss guaranteed the Eagles the wooden spoon, but they will desperately want to avoid a one-win season and give their fans some cause for optimism by getting up over Sydney in round 24.
Ed Bourke is an AFL and AFLW reporter for the Herald Sun and CODE Sports. He is also quick to jump on the bandwagon whenever any cricket or tennis comes to town. Ed previously worked as a sports reporter at NewsWire after completing a cadetship at the Herald Sun in 2022. AFL
Simon Goodwin's time at Melbourne is over with the premiership coach sacked in the midst of another disappointing Demons season. AFL
Sam Draper has a mysterious phone call, Lethal made some big calls and Nick Riewoldt hosted the footy Logies. Josh Barnes has the good word what you missed on TV.
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