
Closing Bell Movers: Victory Capital gains on S&P 400 inclusion
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Financials, Materials, and Health Care led the S&P 500 to the downside, while Tech – particularly large/mega-cap – remained resilient. Nvidia (NVDA) made new all-time highs with a 4% gaining session and 5 out of 7 Mag-7 names ended the day higher despite the selloff in the broader index. Reporting financials, especially Blackrock (BLK) and Wells Fargo (WFC) were softer after their Q2 numbers. Sentiment was also weighed down by the uptick in June CPI data, with expectations of the start of Fed easing by September no longer looking like a slam dunk, according to Fed Funds futures markets.
Check out this evening's top movers from around Wall Street, compiled by The Fly.
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Forbes
an hour ago
- Forbes
These 5 S&P 500 Stocks Show New Highs On Declining Relative Strength
S&P 500, Blackrock The S&P 500 on Friday hit another new high – it was brief as sellers showed up and the index closed lower by .01%. July has been a month of new highs. It's also been a month of a declining relative strength indicator. This negative divergence between price and a key indicator might be a problem. The RSI, as it's known to price chart analysts, is a momentum oscillator. Developed by technical analyst J. Welles Wilder, Junior in the 70s, his work on the subject was first published in the book 'New Concepts In Technical Trading Systems.' Forbes in 1980 called him 'the premier technical trader publishing his work today.' The issue is not just with the S&P 500. Big, well-known names within the index are also showing weakening relative strength per Wilder's oscillator. 5 S&P 500 Stocks With Weakening RSI S&P 500: S&P 500 daily price chart, 7 19 25. The red-dotted lines show the negative divergence between the direction of price and the direction of the RSI momentum oscillator. Blackrock: Blackrock daily price chart, 7 19 25. The big asset management firm hit a new high Friday and the relative strength indicator failed to confirm the move by coming in lower than it's earlier July reading. The stock retreated from the higher price high during the session and closed lower by .16%. Blackrock is market capitalized at $170.97 billion. Genius Sports Limited: Genius Sports Limited daily price chart, 7 19 25. The price just hit a new high. The relative strength indicator peaked in November 2024 and did not accompany the stock on to a higher high on Friday. You can see how the 50-day moving average no longer trends upward. Genius Sports Limited has a market cap of $2.89 billion and it's a member of the Russell 2000 small caps ETF. MMM: MMM daily price chart, 7 19 25. The relative strength indicator peaked in January and is now lower even as the stock's price is hitting a new high. Friday's volume is extraordinary. The candlestick is a bearish engulfing: the high is higher than the previous session and the low is lower than the previous session. MMM has a market cap of $82.47 billion. Raytheon Technologies: Raytheon Technologies daily price chart, 7 19 25. The aerospace and defense company with a market cap of $202 billion has a negative divergence on its daily price chart. The stock just hit a new high and, at the same time, the relative strength indicator could not make it above its mid-June reading. Note that July volume levels are subdued compared to earlier months. Charles Schwab: Charles Schwab daily price chart, 7 19 25. The RSI peak came in mid-May and the measure is now lower as the stock itself makes a new high on decent buying volume. Schwab remains in an uptrend as indicated by the direction of the 50-day and the 200-day moving averages. Market cap for the capital markets firm is $174 billion. The RSI is only one indicator of momentum and should be seen in the context of other price indicators. Stats courtesy of Charts courtesy of No artificial intelligence was used in the writing of this post. More analysis and commentary at


CNBC
3 hours ago
- CNBC
An early lesson from this earnings season: Don't judge the quarter too quickly
The one-two punch of strong earnings and tame inflation helped propel the S & P 500 to a positive week — despite the latest tariff news on Friday putting a slight damper on the action. The broad index added 0.59% for the week led by technology, utilities and industrials, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq outperformed, jumping 1.51%. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the week slightly in negative territory, down 0.07%, after falling 142 points Friday on a report that President Donald Trump was pushing for between 15% to 20% tariffs in any deal with the European Union. The main economic event of the week came Tuesday, with the release of the June consumer price index. The headline CPI reading tracked in line with expectations, rising 2.7% year over year. However, the core index, which strips out food and energy due to their higher levels of volatility, came in slightly below expectations at 2.9% versus 3.0% expected. It wasn't a perfect report, though. Importantly, the shelter cost index was up 3.8% year over year. While lower than what we saw in the 12-month period ending May 2025 and trending the right way, it's still above the overall rate of inflation. For that reason, it's problematic as the Federal Reserve looks to thread the needle between maintaining price stability — which requires higher rates to address issues like the rise in shelter costs — and keeping unemployment low. Fortunately, for the time being, labor market dynamics are on the Fed's side, with the unemployment rate coming at 4.1%, as of June, and initial jobless claims now falling for five straight weeks. As a result, the market, according to the CME FedWatch Tool , continues to believe the Fed will keep its benchmark lending rate steady at its late July meeting, though the base case remains that we will likely see two cuts by year-end. More good news on inflation arrived Wednesday when the June producer price index came in a bit below expectations on both the headline and core readings. Known as the PPI, the gauge tracks wholesale inflation and is seen as a leading indicator for the CPI given it provides insights into what producers of goods are paying for their inputs. If their costs are going up, that will ultimately feed into what we all see in stores. It's too early to make a final judgement on how much tariffs are trickling into consumer prices, even though the overall impact so far appears to be subdued. Beneath the surface of the CPI report, some tariff-sensitive goods categories, such as household furnishings and supplies, increased at rates above the headline level. At the same time, within the PPI report, we saw a 0.1% decline in final demand services that was more than offset by a 0.3% increase in final demand goods. Putting it all together, the tariff impact thus far has proven very manageable — for now. It's possible the impact grows over time. As a result, while we continue to think rates should ultimately come down, we don't think Fed Chair Jerome Powell would be wrong to keep rates where they are for now as we wait for another month of data to roll in. Other positive economic updates this week included a better-than-expected read on June industrial production and capacity utilization; lower-than-expected initial jobless claims for the week ending June 12; strong June retail sales, and slight beat on June housing starts. Earnings was the other big story of the week, and the results were overall supportive of the idea that companies are deftly navigating the tricky economic moment. As for Club earnings, we had some hits and misses, though no real thesis-changing events. On Tuesday morning, we were wrong in thinking Wells Fargo could increase its net interest income outlook. No denying it. However, the reason we aren't changing our view is because we like why we were wrong. Rather than focus on the net interest part of its business — which is highly dependent on interest rates and therefore more out of management's control — the team is pushing deeper into the fee-based side of the operation, which tends to be more predictable. After falling around 5.5% on the report Tuesday, shares of Wells Fargo gained 2.3% over the final three days of the week, which was nice to see after the initial market reaction. BlackRock also got clobbered when it released second-quarter results Tuesday, sinking 5.9%. While the asset management giant did miss on revenues, we argued the sellers were short-sighted and failed to appreciate things such as the strong organic growth in fee revenue. They also weren't considering the transformative acquisition of private credit manager HPS acquisition, which wasn't in the Q2 results because it didn't close until July 1. That deal stands to provide a significant boost to the business going forward. Indeed, our more optimistic read on BlackRock's report proved to be correct. The stock quickly bounced back, touching a fresh all-time intraday high Friday before closing modestly lower in the session. Our final financial of the week to report, Goldman Sachs produced very strong results. Despite a tepid stock reaction, investors shouldn't ignore the combination of excellent execution, high levels of excess capital, and an improving IPO and M & A environment in the back half of the year. As we work our way into 2026, those three factors support a higher stock price. Goldman sits about 2% off its all-time closing high of nearly $724 a share on July 3. Abbott Labs rounded out the week Thursday, reporting a top and bottom line beat with strong organic growth versus the prior year. However, shares took an 8.5% dive as management failed to increase its outlook for full year earnings, guided below expectations for current earnings, and shaved its outlook for full-year organic sales growth. It wasn't the kind of print we've come to expect from Abbott. However, we appreciate CEO Robert Ford coming on "Mad Money" to provide a closer look at the quarter and the path ahead. It bolstered our conviction to stick with the name. We're hardly alone on Wall Street, with many analysts coming out in defense of the stock Friday. In fact, analysts at Jefferies actually took the pullback as an opportunity to upgrade shares to a buy rating. Abbott shares added 2.6% Friday, clawing back a few of the bucks lost in Thursday's sell-off. (Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust is long WFC, GS, BLK and ABT. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
Yahoo
3 hours ago
- Yahoo
The Saturday Spread: Using Science to Pinpoint Empirically Enticing Trades in WMT, OKTA and RCAT
It's the one question that the financial publication industry consistently refuses to answer: how likely is it that the broadcasted thesis happened because of the signal or undervaluation and not just by random chance? Pretty much all finpub articles offer an investment or trading idea; otherwise, what would be the point of reading the material? If there was no edge to be found, then you should simply put your money into the benchmark S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) and call it a day. But instead, the concept of reading financial analyses is to extract alpha — generating returns that exceed what you'd expect from passive exposure to a broader index. More News from Barchart Netflix Produces Strong Q2 FCF, But NFLX Stock Dips - Is It a Buy Here? AMZN Trade Idea: Capture Gains Without Chasing the Stock AMC Entertainment's Unusual Options Activity Sets Up for a Long Straddle. Should You Bite? Get exclusive insights with the FREE Barchart Brief newsletter. Subscribe now for quick, incisive midday market analysis you won't find anywhere else. But you can't just extract alpha without understanding what you are benchmarking against. And that's the point of the null hypothesis. In the financial realm, the null hypothesis is the assumption that there is no mispricing. Put another way, whether you read the finpub article in question or not, your performance will not deviate statistically from what is expected. By logical deduction, our job as analysts is to reject the null; specifically, that the alternative hypothesis that we present is not just a materialization of random noise but an empirically meaningful signal. To determine this meaningfulness, analysts should run a binomial test, which helps narrow down truly interesting ideas from typical price discovery chaos. However, looking at share prices or their derivatives for recurring patterns represents a gargantuan task. Instead, I prefer compressing (discretizing) price action into market breadth or sequences of accumulative and distributive sessions. By analyzing root demand, we can more easily pinpoint unusual quantitative signals — signals that can point to asymmetric opportunities. Yes, the emphasis on scientific methodologies is a financial red pill. But if we're going to beat the market, we have to think differently. Below are three ideas to mull over this coming week. Walmart (WMT) Let me be blunt: big-box retailer Walmart (WMT) is a truly boring idea. But even industry juggernauts can occasionally broadcast signals that make them very intriguing. For WMT stock, this signal is what I would abbreviate as the 6-4-D sequence: six up weeks, four down weeks, negative trajectory across the 10-week period. Since January 2019, this sequence has materialized 17 times. It's an odd pattern given that the balance of accumulative sessions outweighs distributive, yet the overall trajectory is negative. Still, what's most intriguing is that in 76.47% of cases, the following week's price action results in upside, with a median return of 1%. On Friday, WMT stock closed at $95.05, meaning that if the implications of the 6-4-D sequence pan out, it could hit $96 soon, perhaps in a week. Should the bulls maintain control of the market over the next three to four weeks, a push toward $96.55, perhaps even $97, may be on the cards based on past analogs. The null hypothesis in this case is the baseline probability of WMT stock assuming no unusual mispricing, which is 57.02%. However, the much higher probability of the 6-4-D sequence — which has an empirically intriguing p-value of 0.0819 (implying 91.81% confidence that the signal isn't random) — incentivizes a debit-based options strategy. With that in mind, aggressive speculators may consider the 95/97bull call spread expiring Aug. 8. Barchart Premier members can quickly pinpoint the most viable trades, thereby eliminating much of the guesswork involved in options trading. The above transaction involves buying the $95 call and simultaneously selling the $97 call, for a net debit paid of $93. Should WMT stock rise through the short strike price at expiration, the maximum reward stands at $107, a payout of 115%. Okta (OKTA) Another intriguing idea that popped on the quantitative radar is Oka (OKTA), an identity and access management company. While OKTA stock has been a strong performer, gaining over 21% on a year-to-date basis, it has also been a choppy name. For example, in the trailing month, the security is down 4%. Still, this may open up a trading opportunity. In the past two months, OKTA stock has printed a 4-6-D sequence: four up weeks, six down weeks, negative trajectory. Since January 2019, this particular sequence has occurred 37 times. Ordinarily, it would be associated with pessimism given the greater balance of distributive sessions, along with the negative trajectory. However, in 64.86% of cases, the following week's price action results in upside, with a median return of 4.93%. Should the bulls maintain control for the next three weeks, investors may see an added performance boost of 2.06%. With OKTA closing at $95.43 on Friday, it could potentially be on pace to exceed $102 over the next few weeks. Here, the null hypothesis is a baseline probability of 52.63%. Further, the 4-6-D sequence runs a p-value of only 0.0917. All things considered, the framework incentivizes a debit-based strategy. With that said, speculators may consider the 97.50/100 bull call spread expiring Aug. 15. This trade requires a net debit of $96, with a gargantuan payout of over 160%. Red Cat (RCAT) Defense contractor Red Cat (RCAT) — which specializes in advanced solutions such as reconnaissance drones — is fundamentally intriguing for obvious reasons if you've been keeping pace with geopolitical news. However, it's also risky. RCAT stock is down more than 12% YTD and that's including the 30% lift in the trailing five sessions. If choppiness isn't your thing, you may want to look elsewhere. Here's the thing, though. In the past two months, RCAT stock has printed a 6-4-U sequence: six up weeks, four down weeks, positive trajectory. Since January 2019, this sequence has materialized 44 times. With RCAT, the higher balance of accumulative sessions tends to attract more bullish behavior. Therefore, in 56.82% of cases, the following week's price action results in upside, with a median return of 9.31%. On the surface, that might not seem like a significant edge. However, RCAT's null hypothesis is a baseline probability of 45.32%. Given that the security natively features a negative bias, it's enticing that the 6-4-U sequence tilts the odds firmly in the bulls' favor. This signal has a p-value of 0.1398, which is higher than the rest. However, given the open-system nature of the stock market, it's arguably empirically intriguing. Those who really want to swing for the fences may consider the 11/12 bull call spread expiring Aug. 15. This trade requires a net debit of $40, with a max payout of 150%. On the date of publication, Josh Enomoto did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data