Why Jackson Smith's 2-way upside makes him an exciting 2025 NHL Draft prospect

New York Times

01-06-2025

The trend among NHL defense corps in the Stanley Cup playoffs has been impossible to ignore.
Whether it's Florida with Gustav Forsling, Aaron Ekblad and Seth Jones, Dallas with Miro Heiskanen, Thomas Harley and Esa Lindell or Edmonton with Darnell Nurse, Evan Bouchard and Brett Kulak, teams are going on deep runs with blue lines largely made up of big, mobile defensemen who can put those tools to use. And that's just this year. Vegas, Tampa Bay and St. Louis all built their blue lines in much the same way in recent years en route to winning the Cup.
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And when something works in the playoffs, those trends tend to translate to draft day.
That's true at the very top of this year's forward-heavy draft class, with OHL Erie defenseman Matthew Schaefer, and it'll be true throughout the lottery, too. The big names on defense after Schaefer are Radim Mrtka (WHL Seattle) and Kashawn Aitcheson (OHL Barrie).
But right there with them could be WHL Tri-City's Jackson Smith. He has the frame at 6 feet 3 inches, the fluid skating, and increasingly, the two-way potential to potentially go in that same lottery range, where some team will surely be hoping he can be part of their future postseason blue line.
He even poses some intriguing similarities to one of those aforementioned playoff defensemen: Harley.
'Actually he was a guy that we kind of mentioned to (Smith) this year,' former Tri-City coach Stu Barnes said. 'You try to, with these young guys, give them maybe somebody that they can look to at the next level and see what could be, and I think Thomas Harley's a great comparison.'
Of course, Barnes — a former Dallas Star himself — knows that's a lofty comparison. Harley has become something of a darling in the wake of his success at the 4 Nations Face-Off, and after eating massive minutes with Heiskanen out injured. He scored the Game 6 overtime winner that sent Dallas to the conference final.
Smith is a long way off from being able to do any of that. But in terms of the profile, it's easy to see some rhyme with the 2019 No. 18 pick.
Smith came into Tri-City two years ago as 'a real good offensive player already, just by pure natural skill,' Barnes said. Certainly, those talents are reflected in his 11 goals and 54 points in 68 games this season.
But over the course of two seasons with the Americans, Smith has grown his defensive game more and more, using that reach and mobility — and at times, physicality — to look the part of a legitimate two-way defenseman.
Jackson Smith rush defence reel from Game 1 of the CHL USA Prospects Challenge.
Led the game in rush stops with perfectly timed pokes as opponents entered his range, big hits, and a tight gap — all as a left-shot playing on the right. pic.twitter.com/Rgwg2e73fu
— Mitchell Brown (@MitchLBrown) November 27, 2024
'You always come into the league as a 16-year-old and you want to prove yourself, you want to prove what type of player you are, and you're energetic and you're go-go-go-go-go,' said Tri-City assistant coach Jody Hull, who works with the team's defensemen. 'And he did that. But I think this year, his overall game just matured. Like he just wasn't relied on offensively to create stuff, he was also very sound defensively, and that was proven because he was pretty much (playing) against the other teams' top players most nights.'
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Certainly, you expect that to come with time and feedback via video, but both Barnes and Hull independently took it a step further than just calling Smith coachable. They also feel he's a good self-evaluator.
Like many young defensemen with natural offensive games, and the physical tools to get away with the temptations they bring, Smith has an occasional tendency to skate himself into trouble. Sometimes, it leads to a turnover. And when that happens, Hull said Smith will come right to the bench and say I know.
'He can own up to his things, and as a coach, that's important for a player's development,' Hull said. 'And I think when he's done that a few times this year, his next few shifts are just like, 'Boom.' Like, wow, this is what you can be all the time.'
The turnovers themselves represent one of the questions in Smith's game, with those mental lapses always a bit of a risk. As much as teams value the traits of a big defenseman who can transport the puck, making good decisions is paramount if you're actually going to succeed in the NHL.
But as much as any coach wants to avoid turnovers, Hull also realizes that Smith's natural gifts — and the instinct to use them — are what can make him so exciting. He doesn't want to take them away.
And for good reason. Sticking with the Harley comparison for a moment, it's worth noting that in Corey Pronman's 2019 scouting report of the then-Mississauga defenseman, he wrote: 'Harley makes a lot of plays but tends to get too cute and make costly turnovers.'
It's not a unique issue for a defenseman with natural talent to struggle with. And not all of them pan out like Harley, of course.
That's part of what makes that self-awareness piece key, because if Smith can be the one to recognize his mistakes, and then diagnose where he went wrong, then perhaps he has a better chance to find that elusive balance between risk and reward as he grows.
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'It's just, as a coach, having trust that you know you can put him back out there,' Hull said. 'Because it probably never happens twice in a row in a game. … Might happen four games from now again, but it's not happening that game, or in that situation.'
There's also another trend that Barnes and Hull have noticed from Smith over the last two years, particularly when the young defender departs for events with Team Canada. With Tri-City, he's relied upon a lot for offense — his 54 points were more than twice as many as the team's next-highest scoring defenseman. But when he's with the national team, they feel his game takes on a different character.
'His role there has been more shutdown, PK, get the job done in the final couple minutes if we're defending the lead,' Hull said. 'And I think that proved to him that he's capable of doing those things. And that's going to be a big part of his game for him moving forward, without taking any of his offensive abilities away from him.'
'He gets put in these situations where he's surrounded or playing against really high-end players,' Barnes added. 'He seems to really be able to raise his game and be successful on both sides of the puck.'
That, certainly, is part of the vision NHL teams will be dreaming on when they consider Smith for this draft. A big defenseman who can produce offense is nice, and Smith has the ability to be that. But when that 6-foot-3 blueliner can also use those feet to shut down transition the other way, and then start the break back north, it becomes an especially appealing package.
'The way he defends is with his stick, and then once he has the puck it's with his feet,' Hull said. 'He can get your team out of trouble pretty quick with the puck on his stick. Whether it's a pass, or whether it's him just carrying it himself out of the zone.'
That in itself is a valuable tool for a defenseman: being able to skate the puck into the neutral zone and then make a clean first pass to get the offensive process started.
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'And then again, he's got a good shot, he's deceptive, he's able to change angles on the shot in the offensive zone,' Barnes said.' He's patient with the puck. He doesn't panic a lot with pucks when he is on offense. It's going to be interesting to see how he relays it, but I think some of those attributes are going to make it pretty exciting.'
Add that up, and it's not hard to see why Smith is among the top defense prospects in the class. He fits the physical profile teams have seen win at the hardest time of year. He's shown an ability to both defend and create offense.
He's still early in the process, of course. But the potential is there for it all to come together into a complete package.
'Honestly, in two years from now, when he's more of a man, I don't even know what his ceiling is going to be,' Hull said. 'I really don't.'