Campaigning for Japan upper house election begins
Official campaigning began in Japan on Thursday for the July 20 House of Councillors election, a crucial test for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and his minority government as voters struggle with the rising cost of living.
Ishiba has set a goal for the ruling coalition of his Liberal Democratic Party and the Komeito party to retain its majority in the 248-member upper house, meaning it will need to win at least 50 seats in the upcoming race in which 125 seats are up for grabs.
The target is seen as a relatively low hurdle for the ruling camp, which controlled the upper chamber before the election, although Ishiba, hit by low public support, has described it as not an easy undertaking.
The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan is aiming to deal another blow to the ruling coalition by depriving it of majority control of the upper chamber. The LDP-Komeito camp lost its majority in the more powerful House of Representatives last October.
"We must ensure wage growth outpaces inflation, whatever it takes," Ishiba said during a stump speech in Kobe, western Japan, which this year marks the 30th anniversary of the magnitude-7.3 Great Hanshin Earthquake that killed more than 6,000 people in the region.
Ishiba, who has promoted disaster prevention measures, stressed the importance of distributing cash handouts, as pledged by the LDP, calling it a step to help households cope with higher prices. The LDP chief vowed to deliver them by the end of the year.
For the July 20 vote, over 520 people are expected to file their candidacies for the 125 seats -- 124 or half of the upper chamber and one to fill a vacancy in the other half.
Of the total, 74 will be chosen in electoral districts and the remaining 50 through proportional representation. In Japan, half of the upper house members are replaced every three years. Each member serves six years.
An emboldened opposition after the ruling coalition's defeat in the lower house election last year has made life harder for Ishiba, who has had to yield to opposition demands to ensure smooth parliamentary deliberations.
With Ishiba's premiership at stake depending on the election outcome, eyes are on whether the opposition camp can broaden its appeal, particularly the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and the Democratic Party for the People that surged in strength after the October general election. A conservative populist party, Sanseito, is also in focus.
"The government has not done anything effective," Yoshihiko Noda, the leader of the main opposition party, said in Miyazaki Prefecture, southwestern Japan, criticizing Ishiba's inaction on rising food prices.
Noda's party is promising to reduce the consumption tax on food from the current 8 percent to zero for one year. Miyazaki is home to the constituency of an LDP lawmaker who was forced to resign as farm minister after a gaffe about rice that was deemed insensitive to the struggles of consumers.
Pressure on household budgets is looming large, with both the ruling and opposition parties seeking to appease a frustrated public, though with different approaches.
The LDP and Komeito have pledged to distribute 20,000 yen handouts per person to help ease the pain of inflation. In contrast, opposition forces are pushing to cut, suspend, or even abolish the consumption tax.
With households hit by inflation, major political parties are promising to add impetus to the budding trend of wage hikes. Soaring rice prices have added to the recent bout of inflation driven by increased production costs, a headache for Ishiba.
The election will give voters an opportunity to deliver a verdict on Ishiba's months-old government at a time when Japan is seeking to stave off U.S. President Donald Trump's threat of even higher tariffs on Japanese products through rounds of bilateral negotiations that appear to have hit an impasse.
Ishiba, whose LDP has traditionally enjoyed support from agriculture groups, has vowed not to sacrifice the agriculture sector under U.S. pressure for more market access.
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Under former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the Liberal Democratic Party's leadership offered the Japanese people and the region the Free and Open Indo-Pacific Vision (FOIP), Abenomics to revive the nation's economy after nearly three decades of stagnation and 'proactive pacifism' as guiding ideas for Japanese citizens. While not completely successful in realizing these visions, they offer a stark contrast to Japan's Upper House elections. These performative 'elections' have again exposed a troubling void at the heart of the island nation's political culture: the absence of any compelling strategic vision for the country's future. While political parties jostle for position and trade barbs over peripheral issues, none have articulated a coherent blueprint for addressing Japan's serious and mounting structural challenges. This vacuum of imagination reflects not merely political timidity but a deeper cultural reluctance to embrace bold leadership, a tendency encapsulated in the Japanese proverb 'the nail that sticks up gets hammered down.' The policy platforms on display during the campaign were notable primarily for their smallness of ambition. The LDP recycled familiar promises about economic revitalization and security enhancements, offering incremental adjustments rather than transformative solutions. The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan countered with equally uninspiring proposals for modest wage increases and tweaks to social programs. Even newer entrants like Reiwa Shinsengumi and Nippon Ishin no Kai failed to break free from this pattern of cautious incrementalism. What makes this lack of vision more concerning is the magnitude of challenges Japan faces. The nation confronts a demographic crisis, with a rapidly aging society and plummeting birthrate threatening economic vitality and social cohesion. Gender inequality remains entrenched, depriving the economy of talent and perpetuating outdated social structures. The employment system struggles to adapt to a dynamic global economy. Educational institutions remain rigid, hierarchical and are ill-equipped to foster the creativity and flexibility demanded by the 21st century. Rather than grappling seriously with these existential challenges with a concrete vision, political discourse has increasingly fixated on the comparatively minor issue of immigration. Parties across the spectrum have devoted outsized attention to illegal migrants, migrant crime and border control measures despite scant evidence that foreign nationals pose any significant threat to Japanese society. Foreign residents constitute less than 3% of Japan's population and crime rates among immigrants remain lower than those of the general population. This misdirection of political energy reveals both the poverty of strategic thinking and a troubling susceptibility to populist scapegoating. The rise of parties like Sanseito, which has gained traction with its populist, right-of-center platform, reflects growing voter dissatisfaction with establishment politics. Yet this phenomenon represents less a coherent alternative vision than a protest vote against the status quo. Like similar movements in Europe and the Americas, Sanseito channels frustration without offering substantive solutions. Its popularity signals not the emergence of new ideas but the bankruptcy of old ones. This political paralysis stems partly from institutional factors such as the factional nature of Japanese politics, the power of bureaucracy and the influence of special interests. But it also reflects deeper cultural dynamics. Japanese society has long valued consensus over conflict, harmony over disruption and collective cohesion over individual initiative. These values have many virtues, contributing to social stability and group solidarity. Yet they also create powerful disincentives for the kind of bold, visionary leadership required to navigate transformational change. The contrast with other major powers is instructive. Whatever one thinks of U.S. President Donald Trump's 'Make America Great Again' vision or Chinese leader Xi Jinping's 'China Dream,' these leaders have articulated clear, compelling narratives about their nations' destiny. Their visions may be flawed, divisive and unrealistic, but they provide a sense of direction and purpose that mobilizes political energy and shapes public discourse. Japanese politics offers no equivalent. There has been no overarching narrative about where the country should go or what it should become since Abe. This absence of vision has concrete consequences. Without a clear strategic direction, policy responses remain reactive and piecemeal. Demographic decline proceeds unchecked because no party dares propose the radical reforms to immigration policy, gender relations or work culture that are necessary to reverse it. Economic stagnation persists because structural reforms threaten entrenched interests. Educational ossification continues because innovation requires challenging established hierarchies. The irony is that Japan possesses tremendous assets that could underpin a compelling national vision. Its technological prowess, cultural creativity, social cohesion and democratic institutions provide a strong foundation for renewal. A political leader willing to articulate how these strengths could be mobilized to address contemporary challenges might find a receptive audience among voters hungry for change. Such a vision need not mimic the nationalist populism of Trump or the authoritarian ambitions of Xi. As Phillip Lipscy of the University of Toronto alludes to in his essay "Japan: the harbinger state," Japan could chart its own course, offering a model of inclusive prosperity, sustainable development and creative adaptation to demographic change. It could position itself as a laboratory for solutions to challenges such as aging societies, work-life balance and technological disruption that other developed nations will soon face. It could leverage its cultural soft power and technological capabilities to shape global conversations about the future of human society. Developing such a vision requires political courage and the willingness to stick out, that is, to risk being hammered down. It demands leaders who prioritize long-term national interests over short-term political calculations. It necessitates a political culture that rewards innovation rather than punishing it and one that values bold thinking alongside careful consensus-building. The alternative is continued drift and a slow-motion crisis. Japan's challenges will not resolve themselves through incremental adjustments or wishful thinking. Where is the spirit and vision of the Meiji restorers, those who rebuilt Japan from the ashes of war after World War II or Abe and his team, who offered FOIP, Abenomics and the leadership that drove Japan to lead the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership? A compelling vision with concrete and achievable objectives would contribute not only to Japan's sustainable prosperity but also to its global influence. In an era when nationalist and authoritarian visions are ascendant worldwide, Japan could offer an alternative model, one that combines economic dynamism with social cohesion, technological innovation with cultural continuity, global engagement with national identity. The nail that sticks up may get hammered down, but the alternative is a political culture of timid conformity that guarantees only decline. Japan needs leaders willing to take that risk, to articulate bold visions and pursue transformative change. Until such leaders emerge, its enormous potential will be unrealized and its future increasingly uncertain. Stephen R. Nagy is a professor of politics and international studies at the International Christian University in Tokyo and concurrently a visiting fellow for the Hungarian Institute for International Affairs and the Japan Institute for International Affairs.
