Cincinnati Reds second-half storylines: Trade deadline, bullpen and more

New York Times

3 days ago

CINCINNATI — The Reds will begin the second half in fourth place in the National League Central but certainly not out of playoff contention.
At 50-47, the Reds are 7.5 games back of the Chicago Cubs, the leaders in the NL Central, but only a game behind the St. Louis Cardinals for third place in the division and 2.5 games behind the San Diego Padres for the third wild-card spot in the NL.
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All season, the Reds have been somewhere between four games under .500 and four games over .500. Since the third wild card was added for the 2023 season, no team has gotten in with an 83-79 record, meaning the Reds will likely have to break the four-game barrier from .500 to make the playoffs. If they do, the Reds could have the pitching to make a run, and they also have a manager who has plenty of playoff experience in Terry Francona.
What questions will need to be answered for that to happen?
During Nick Krall's regime as president of baseball operations, the Reds haven't been aggressive buyers at the deadline, but they have added on the margins.
The last time the team contended, in 2023, its big move at the trade deadline was adding lefty Sam Moll to the bullpen. Moll was excellent for the Reds once he came over from the Athletics, but hindsight shows that the Reds needed more, including a starter.
That year, Krall also claimed a pair of outfielders — Harrison Bader and Hunter Renfroe — off waivers at the end of August, but by that time, it was too little, too late.
To make a push toward the playoffs, the Reds will need more than small tweaks. They'll need a bold move or two.
The most glaring need is a middle-of-the-order bat who can be a threat behind Elly De La Cruz in the lineup. That would preferably be a right-handed hitting outfielder who can play every day, although there are ways that a DH or third baseman could fit into the picture.
Reds outfielders have a collective 0.8 fWAR, 23rd in baseball. They have the same rank in wRC+ at 91. The Reds' third basemen are 26th in fWAR at 0.1 and 28th in wRC+ with a 61.
As a team, the Reds have a 101 wRC+ against right-handers (ranked 19th) and an 81 wRC+ against lefties.
The team could also use some bullpen help, but that's true of every contender.
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The Reds signed Hays with the hopes that he could regain his All-Star form and stay healthy. He's done the former, but the latter has been a struggle.
The 30-year-old is hitting .281/.318/.511, and his eight home runs are tied for the fifth-most on the team.
Hays, 30, already has three stints on the injured list this season and has been limited to 47 of the team's 97 games. The right-handed hitter has put up a 1.146 OPS against left-handers, providing the Reds some much-needed offense against lefties. Just two years ago, Hays was an All-Star for the Baltimore Orioles, and from 2021 to 2023, he hit a combined .261/.313/.439, good for a 109 OPS+.
A healthy Hays would go a long way toward stabilizing the Reds' lineup.
Only Tyler Rogers (twin brother of the Reds' Taylor Rogers) has appeared in more games out of the bullpen this year than Reds right-hander Tony Santillan, who leads the team with 47 appearances. Scott Barlow has pitched in 46 games.
The Reds' 343 1/3 innings from their bullpen is just 17th in terms of sheer usage, but there have been signs of fatigue and a bullpen stretched thin.
The rapid decline and ultimate release of former closer Alexis Díaz pushed each of the Reds' relievers into a higher leverage spot. Emilio Pagán has been good as the closer, recording 20 saves in the first half, with Santillan and Graham Ashcraft as his primary setup men. Veterans Barlow and Rogers have been serviceable, but they have the highest walk rate of any of the team's active relievers.
Reds relievers are walking 11.4 percent of the left-handed batters they've faced (25th in MLB), which negates the team's relievers holding left-handed hitters to a .212 batting average (seventh-best in MLB).
Healthy starters could help out the bullpen, where Nick Martinez was a stalwart last year before moving to the rotation, and at some point, in order to cut down on his innings, the Reds could move rookie Chase Burns to the bullpen.
(Photo of Scott Barlow: Hunter Martin / Getty Images)