Japan's Birth Rate Crisis Worsens
Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content.
Births in Japan fell to a record low last year, according to newly released government data, as the country faces a deepening demographic crisis.
Newsweek has contacted the Japanese Foreign Ministry for comment by email.
Why It Matters
Japan's steadily declining births and overall aging population present serious long-term risks, threatening to sap the world's fifth-largest economy of vitality and strain its social welfare system.
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has labeled the trend a "quiet emergency" and made reversing it a central pillar of his agenda.
What To Know
The number of babies born to Japanese citizens in 2024 fell to 686,061, a 5.7 percent drop from the previous year, according to statistics the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare released on Wednesday. It marked the first time since 1899, when record-keeping began, that annual births fell below 700,000.
A mother and child at the "crying baby sumo" match at Sensoji temple in Tokyo on April 28, 2024.
A mother and child at the "crying baby sumo" match at Sensoji temple in Tokyo on April 28, 2024.
Philip Fong/AFP via Getty Images
For the 18th consecutive year, deaths outpaced births, resulting in a net population loss of 919,237, the ministry said.
Japan's fertility rate also declined, falling to 1.15 expected births per woman—down from 1.2 in 2023. A rate of 2.1 is widely considered the replacement threshold for a stable population without large-scale immigration.
Japan is not alone. China and Taiwan face similar demographic declines, while South Korea—which has the distinction of having the world's lowest fertility rate—joined Japan last year as a "super-aged society," meaning people 65 and older make up 20 percent of the population.
What People Have Said
Kei Nishiuchi, the CEO of SoujouData Inc., a data science consultancy in Tokyo, told the Fuji News Network: "As the number of elderly increases and the working-age population shrinks, we're starting to see an impact on the economy's overall productivity. Even the very assumptions behind how our society redistributes resources—such as who pays taxes and who provides eldercare—are being called into question.
"This is not a crisis that's still on the horizon—it's one that has already begun. I think we need to recognize that."
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said in a parliamentary speech in October: "The low birth rate and the resulting population decline are a challenge to the very foundations of the country—a quiet emergency, so to speak."
What Happens Next
Health officials have warned that Japan has only until the 2030s to reverse course. However, measures such as childcare subsidies and fertility treatment coverage have had little effect.
Some analysts have suggested that Japan's outlook may be less dire than feared, citing its heavy investment in automation technologies—such as industrial robots—to offset its shrinking workforce.
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