Citigroup drops July rate cut bets for US, trims forecast to 75 bps
June 9 (Reuters) - Citigroup has pushed back its U.S. rate cut forecast to September from July and now expects three cuts this year instead of four, after a stronger-than-expected May jobs report in an otherwise cooling labor market.
The Wall Street brokerage anticipates 75 basis points (bps) of cuts this year in three equal tranches in September, October and December, revising its earlier forecast of 100 bps of cuts.
The brokerage also forecast two rate cuts of 25 bps each in January and March of 2026.
The Federal Reserve's last rate cut was in December 2024, when it reduced the key lending rate by 25 bps.
U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 139,000 jobs last month after a downwardly revised rise of 147,000 in April, data showed. Economists polled by Reuters had estimated May payrolls to rise by 130,000 jobs.
The U.S. central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting next week, while traders have priced in close to two 25-bps cuts by December.
On Friday, Citi lifted its S&P 500 (.SPX), opens new tab year-end target to 6,300 from 5,800 earlier, expressing renewed optimism in corporate earnings resilience and the accelerating momentum of artificial intelligence-driven growth.
The benchmark S&P 500 index closed above 6,000 for the first time since late February on Friday.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
The Independent
7 minutes ago
- The Independent
Trump's policies could have a major impact on your credit score. Here's how
Your support helps us to tell the story Read more Support Now From reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The Independent is on the ground when the story is developing. Whether it's investigating the financials of Elon Musk's pro-Trump PAC or producing our latest documentary, 'The A Word', which shines a light on the American women fighting for reproductive rights, we know how important it is to parse out the facts from the messaging. At such a critical moment in US history, we need reporters on the ground. Your donation allows us to keep sending journalists to speak to both sides of the story. The Independent is trusted by Americans across the entire political spectrum. And unlike many other quality news outlets, we choose not to lock Americans out of our reporting and analysis with paywalls. We believe quality journalism should be available to everyone, paid for by those who can afford it. Your support makes all the difference. Read more President Donald Trump returned to the White House this January with a flurry of sweeping orders – some of which may impact Americans' credit scores. Trump and his allies are set on enacting his 'One Big Beautiful Bill,' which would add trillions to the country's already sizable deficit and drive up interest rates, producing large-scale macroeconomic repercussions. Financial markets have already warned of the rising debt, with Moody's cutting its pristine 'Aaa' U.S. credit rating, which could take even further hits if the deficit continues to rise. To help pay for the bill, Republicans are looking to make cuts to Medicaid and food assistance programs, without which, more Americans are likely to go into medical debt. Some 15 million Americans with medical debt may suffer even greater consequences of Trump's policies after his administration paused a new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau rule that would ban the inclusion of medical debt on credit reports. As of now, medical debt can be included in credit scores and a significant amount of medical bills can drag down a credit score. A lower credit score means a person appears to be a bigger risk to a lender, such as a bank. That could lead to higher interest rates on loans, such as for a car or a home. open image in gallery President Donald Trump's spending bill will have far-reaching macroeconomic repercussions and likely impact Americans' credit scores. ( AP ) A Biden-era rule would have removed $49 million in medical debt from credit score records, but new leadership at CFPB appointed by Trump is attempting to reverse its course, NPR reported. In addition to the complete switch in its stance, the CFPB joined forces with plaintiffs who filed a lawsuit trying to stop the Biden ban. The rule has since been stuck in limbo, with Judge Sean Jordan from Texas' Eastern District federal court twice ordering a stay, delaying the rule's new start date until the end of July. The outcome of the lawsuit will have tremendous financial implications for millions of Americans whose medical debt has negatively impacted their credit scores. Meanwhile, consumer advocates have been speaking out on behalf of the medical debt rule, worried abandoning it would take away necessary consumer protections. "I'm disappointed for the 15 million Americans who have medical bills on their credit reports and have to suffer the consequences of poor credit scores because of it," Patricia Kelmar, senior director of health care campaigns at the U.S. PIRG Education Fund, told USA Today. open image in gallery Trump-appointed CFPB leaders is looking to reverse a Biden-era rule that would ban the inclusion of medical debt on credit reports. ( Copyright 2025 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. ) In the lawsuit filed in April, CFPB along with plaintiffs, the Consumer Data Industry Association and the Cornerstone Credit Union League, asked the judge to abandon the medical debt rule 'because it exceeds the bureau's statutory authority.' "We believe that Congress is the only one who can act on this and determine whether or not it can be on the credit report," Dan Smith, CEO and president of the Consumer Data Industry Association, told NPR. "Our intention here is to protect the credit reporting system. To ensure that it is as complete and accurate as possible," he said. In the lawsuit, the groups also note that the three largest credit bureaus - Experian, TransUnion and Equifax – no longer list paid medical debts, unpaid medical debts less than a year old and medical debts less than $500. Americans' credit scores may also see some changes thanks to a proposal from Trump that would cap credit card interest rates at 10 percent – a significant reduction from the current average interest rate of about 21 percent. Lower rates mean people would be able to pay back credit card bills quicker, and improve their credit scores by having less debt. The proposal was touted as a solution to the debt many Americans owe due to high credit card interest rates, Newsweek reported. open image in gallery Americans held $45 billion more in credit card debt in 2024 than in 2023. ( Getty Images/iStockphoto ) Americans held $1.21 trillion in credit card debt as of December 2024 – an increase of $45 billion from September 2024, per New York Fed data. Data also shows that 7.18 percent of U.S. credit card debt is in serious delinquency, likely causing many credit scores to take a serious downward spiral. Following Trump's campaign promise, Reps Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-Ny) and Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla) introduced legislation to cap credit card interest rates at a maximum of 10 percent. The measure would take the financial burden away from consumers, especially those with high-interest debt. The cap would last until January 1, 2031, according to the bill.
Reuters
7 minutes ago
- Reuters
US FDA puts on hold Rein Therapeutics' lung disease drug trial
June 12 (Reuters) - Rein Therapeutics (RNTX.O), opens new tab has paused patient enrollment and dosing in a mid-stage trial of its lung disease drug in the U.S. after the Food and Drug Administration placed a clinical hold, the drug developer said on Thursday. Shares of the company fell nearly 10% after the bell. The company was testing a drug named LTI-03 to treat patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). The disease causes scarring of the lungs that makes it harder for them to work properly. Rein said in a filing that it is actively working with the FDA to remove the clinical hold. The FDA and Rein did not immediately respond to Reuters' requests for comment on why the hold was placed. The drug was well-tolerated and safe in an early-stage study in patients with IPF, the company said in the filing. No drug-related serious adverse events have been reported in any studies treating patients with LTI-03, it added. Rein continues to study the drug and enroll patients in Australia and Europe.
Reuters
7 minutes ago
- Reuters
US initiates first step for potential mineral lease sale near American Samoa
WASHINGTON, June 12 (Reuters) - The U.S. Interior Department said on Thursday it was publishing a request for information and interest to explore the potential for seabed mineral leasing offshore American Samoa. The step will launch a 30-day public comment period and mark the first formal action toward what could be the first mineral lease sale in federal waters in over 30 years, the department said.
