Tarik Skubal, Colt Keith and an out-of-rhythm road trip: 6 Tigers takeaways

New York Times

03-04-2025

SEATTLE — The Detroit Tigers are coming home with a 2-4 record. There are 156 games remaining on their schedule. There is much left to learn. So many twists and turns still ahead.
When they play the Chicago White Sox in Friday's home opener, the season will settle into its more normal rhythms. The strangeness of opening out west against the Los Angeles Dodgers and Seattle Mariners will fade. And the true test — surviving and improving over 162 games — will begin.
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But what can we take from these first six games?
Here are points worth noting.
Who would have thought the Tigers would have already lost in two Tarik Skubal starts? Strangely enough, the Tigers are 4-5 in Skubal's past nine starts, including the postseason. That fact should not at all diminish faith in the Tigers' ace. In each of his first two outings, Skubal's execution has been below his norm. He's his own harshest critic in that regard.
'I thought my execution was about as bad as it gets,' Skubal said after Opening Day. 'It wasn't very good, from start to finish.'
Against the Dodgers, Skubal got away with middle-middle pitches early, then Tommy Edman and Teoscar Hernández made him pay for further mistakes.
In Wednesday's 3-2 loss to the Mariners, the story was similar. Skubal walked Dylan Moore in the second inning, and walks tend to haunt. J.P. Crawford reached on Colt Keith's mental error at second base, then Skubal hung a changeup that Victor Robles demolished into left-center field to score two runs.
'You can't let things out of your control impact who you are on the mound,' Skubal said of the Keith play. 'You've got to continue to make pitches, and I didn't make a pitch the next time. We probably don't even talk about it if I get the next guy out. That's on me. I'll be better.'
In the fourth, Skubal left a slider up and away to Moore, who took it the other way for a home run. After Ryan Bliss hammered another elevated changeup, though, Skubal locked the doors. His stuff ticked up, and his location improved. He struck out all three fifth-inning batters in forceful fashion. He retired two more batters before a walk ended his day. Skubal used his slider only six times Wednesday, working mostly off his fastball and changeup. He struck out eight batters and still left the game giving his team a chance to win.
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The stuff is very much there. No reason to think the execution won't soon improve.
If you want proof: Skubal fired 80 percent (20-for-25) first-pitch strikes Wednesday. He induced 23 swings-and-misses, only one short of matching his career high from last summer in Cincinnati.
It has not been the greatest start for Keith. He was 0-for-10 with five punchouts in the opening series, looking puzzled in nearly every trip to the plate.
The approach improved greatly in Seattle. But Keith still hopped on the flight home, likely replaying a couple of moments in his mind. His defensive miscue in the second inning Wednesday — when he fielded a ball with two outs and a runner on first, pumped to second, then spun awkwardly and made a late throw to first — set up Robles' two-run double. To Keith's credit, he stood tall after the game and owned the mistake.
'I tried to come in and get it with one hand,' Keith said. 'The hop beat me. So there's no better word for it. I just kind of panicked. I knew how many outs there were. I opened up and for some reason turned all the way.'
In the ninth, Keith represented the tying run on second base when Dillon Dingler hit a liner into left field. Keith broke on contact but then stopped as shortstop Crawford leaped into the air. The ball fell into the outfield grass, but Keith had to hold at third. The Tigers ended up stranding the bases loaded in the ninth. Keith later said he wanted to make sure he didn't get doubled up to end the game. The play was a tough read.
'He got caught in between a little bit,' Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said. 'I know (Randy) Arozarena played shallow in left. I don't know if he scores. But if you're going to break, you might as well sell out and get after it.'
Keith clearly hasn't found his timing yet at the plate. But he was 3-for-7 with six walks in the Seattle series. He has walked eight times in six games. If he continues to look confident in his takes, the timing should eventually smooth out.
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'I feel like I was seeing the ball a lot better,' Keith said. 'Slowing it down. My heart rate was down, for sure. Hit one hard this series, which is definitely a step in the right direction. Mechanics felt good. Hopefully, I can just keep that going and rolling into next week in Comerica.'
Casey Mize talked Tuesday night about the changes in both mechanics and conviction that have helped improve his splitter and his arsenal at large. He mentioned again the back pain that prevented him from using the ground to brace his delivery earlier in his career. That made it tough for Mize to stay on top of the baseball.
Part of the reason his stuff has looked so much better recently is clear on Mize's Baseball Savant page. His arm angle has become more over the top in each of his pro seasons. There was a noticeable jump from 37 degrees in 2022 to 43 degrees last season, after Mize returned from elbow and back surgeries. After one start this year, his average arm angle is 45 degrees.
'I've had a little bit better posture,' Mize said. 'I can get over the ball a little bit better with all my pitches.'
We are only one start in, but after an encouraging spring, Mize's improvements check out on Stuff+ plots. His Stuff+ — a metric that determines the quality of a pitch based on velocity, spin, movement and release point — was a below-average 95 last season. After his first start this year, it was 101.
Speaking of Stuff+ … check out how Jackson Jobe graded out after his first professional start. If you want an indicator of just how nasty Jobe can be, look no further.
Jobe's Stuff+ rating of 117 is tied for ninth among MLB starters so far this season, up there with some of the best pitchers in the league. He had plus grades on his fastball, sinker, cutter and changeup. Location is obviously where he must improve to unlock his best form.
Ryan Kreidler playing center field is the great experiment of the first portion of the Tigers' season. With Parker Meadows on the mend from a nerve issue and Matt Vierling still on the shelf with a rotator cuff strain, the Tigers are asking Kreidler to play a premium position that is still relatively new for him. It's a big ask. It's also a big opportunity.
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'Every time I've sent him out, we've talked about some adjustments he's made or maybe some prepitch setup, approach at the plate, his defensive versatility,' Hinch said. 'All the things we love about him. What he's lacked is opportunity, and he's asked for it every time we've sent him out, that he hopes he gets an opportunity, and this is it.'
Defensive metrics are dangerous in small samples, but Kreidler is here for his defense, and Kreidler entered Wednesday's game worth plus-1 defensive runs saved and plus-1 outs above average.
His bat has always been the bigger question. Kreidler is 3-for-15 with one walk and seven strikeouts. But there's hope he can show up to the field clearheaded as he gets this extended run.
'He's trying to make the most of it, and when you play in wins, you get to play a lot,' Hinch said. 'It has a chance to develop into something pretty cool for him if he can continue to contribute.'
Maybe as encouraging as anything? The play style the Tigers displayed down the stretch last season has picked up right where it left off. For what the Tigers lack in star power, they make up for in peskiness. Even as the likes of Skubal, Jobe and Beau Brieske have made mistakes in execution early, this team has a deep pitching staff that could emerge as one of the league's best. Buy-in, playing 27 outs and all those other cliches continued to look real even when mistakes and missed opportunities cost the Tigers on the first road trip.
There will be good days and bad days on the road ahead. But if the Tigers can clean things up around the edges and stay true to their identity, you never know what could happen.
(Top photo of Colt Keith: Harry How / Getty Images)