Succession of the Dalai Lama and India's Tough Choices Ahead

Japan Forward

21-07-2025

The recent 90th birthday celebrations of the Dalai Lama have brought the issue of his succession into the limelight. Beijing objected to India's Minority Affairs Minister Kiren Rijiju's statement that "All those who follow the Dalai Lama feel that the incarnation is to be decided by the established convention and as per the wish of the Dalai Lama himself."
This is in sync with the position taken by the present Dalai Lama, who has noted that the institution of the Dalai Lama will continue. He made clear that the Gaden Phodrang Trust, a non-profit organization founded by his Office in 2015, would be tasked with carrying out the procedure. In addition, he emphasized, "No one else has any authority to interfere in this matter".
The Chinese Foreign Ministry was quick to retort. It noted in a statement that "The reincarnation must be chosen by drawing lots from a golden urn, and approved by the central government (of China)." New Delhi joined the issue, and the Ministry of External Affairs of the Government of India clarified that: "We have seen reports relating to the statement made by His Holiness the Dalai Lama about the continuation of the Dalai Lama institution. Government of India does not take any position or speak on matters concerning beliefs and practices of faith and religion. [The] government has always upheld freedom of religion for all in India and will continue to do so."
Tibet is important for China for a host of reasons. For one, Tibet shares a long boundary with India, and hence, control over Tibet also means control over the border. In addition, Tibet is home to some of the biggest rivers in Asia, and hence it is important for China's bid to control the discharge of water throughout much of Asia.
Beijing also sees any kind of separatism as dangerous to the country as a whole. This is especially true in the light of what has been happening in Xinjiang.
At the same time, Chinese President Xi Jinping has been trying to project himself as a strong leader. He believes that if the next Dalai Lama is appointed without China's tacit approval, it will reflect poorly on Xi Jinping. Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar and Chinese Vice President Han Zheng shake hands in Beijing on July 14. (©Xinhua via Kyodo)
India has a role to play in the issue, as the Dalai Lama currently lives in Dharamshala. So, as well, does the Tibetan government in exile. Beijing has always objected when senior leaders from the Indian government have met the Dalai Lama or, in the past, travelled to the border state of Arunachal Pradesh in India. The issue dates back to 1959 when, facing Chinese aggression, the Dalai Lama fled on foot to India. He has been based in India ever since.
Beijing will likely try to put pressure on India through the Dalai Lama issue to extract concessions on other aspects of the bilateral relationship. Recently, China has also been actively promoting an anti-India policy by using countries like Bangladesh. This may increase in the near future. China recently held a trilateral dialogue with Bangladesh and Pakistan in the Chinese city of Kunming. It was a not-so-subtle signal to India.
There is a Japanese parliamentary support group which has been supporting the Tibetan cause. In February 2022, the Lower House of the Japanese Diet adopted a measure titled "Resolution regarding the serious human rights situation in Xinjiang Uyghur and other areas." It noted that: "In recent years, the international community has expressed concern over serious human rights situations including infringement of freedom of religion and forced incarceration in places including Xinjiang Uyghur, Tibet, Southern Mongolia and Hong Kong." Furthermore, there is strong public support for the Tibetan cause. The 14th Dalai Lama, November 2018, visiting Japan's National Diet. (©Sankei by Mina Terakochi)
It is clear that China will use the succession issue as a means to strengthen its control over Tibet, and therein lies the catch. New Delhi will have to handle this issue very deftly. The ties between the two Asian behemoths are still reeling from the aftermath of the Galwan Valley clashes of June 2020. Those led to the first casualties between the two sides in 45 years and a huge mobilization of forces.
In addition, during India's recent clashes with Pakistan, China provided quite a substantial share of the weapons used by Pakistan.
China would like to keep India busy in the neighborhood, as seen with its so-called "String of Pearls" policy. As a part of this, Beijing has constructed ports in countries like Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Myanmar, and others.
Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh recently visited China for a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) defense ministers. It was the first time since the Galwan clashes in 2000. However, he refused to sign the SCO declaration as it did not contain any references to the Pahalgam massacre by Pakistan-backed terrorists (earlier in April 2025).
Indian External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar was also in China for the SCO Foreign Ministers' meeting. His presence signalled the gradual resumption of ties.
India will continue to give shelter to the Tibetans, as that has been its longstanding position. Of course, it could lead to some tough times in the India-China relationship. New Delhi will have to look for some innovative solutions in this matter because, while India and China do not see eye-to-eye on many issues, there are forums like the BRICS and the SCO where the two countries do cooperate with each other.
New Delhi should not cave in to Beijing's pressure on the Dalai Lama issue. Doing so would only lead to further Chinese pressure on other issues. Being the world's largest democracy, India should join hands with democratic countries like the United States and Japan to support a solution to the succession that is in the best interests of the Tibetan people.
Author: Dr Rupakjyoti Borah
Dr Rupakjyoti Borah is a Senior Research Fellow with the Japan Forum for Strategic Studies. The views expressed here are personal.