The Texas Floods Were a Preview of What's to Come
The country watched in horror as torrential rain drenched Texas earlier this month, sweeping at least 135 people to their death. Kerr County alone lost 107, including more than two dozen children at Camp Mystic.
From afar, it would be easy, even tempting, to think that floods like these could never happen to you. That the disaster is remote.
It's not.
As details of the tragedy have come into focus, the list of contributing factors has grown. Sudden downpours, driven by climate change. The lack of a comprehensive warning system to notify people that the Guadalupe River was rising rapidly. Rampant building in areas known to flood, coupled with incomplete information about what places might be at risk.
These are the same elements that could trigger a Kerr County type of catastrophe in every state in the country. It's a reality that has played out numerous times already in recent years, with flooding in Vermont, Kentucky, North Carolina and elsewhere, leaving grief and billions of dollars in destruction in its wake.
'Kerr County is an extreme example of what's happening everywhere,' said Robert Freudenberg, vice president of energy and environmental programs at the Regional Plan Association. 'People are at risk because of it, and there's more that we need to be doing.'
The most obvious problem is we keep building in areas prone to flooding. The Federal Emergency Management Agency, or FEMA, produces readily available maps showing high-risk locales. Yet, according to the latest data from the nonprofit climate research firm First Street Foundation, 7.9 million homes and other structures stand in a FEMA Special Flood Hazard Area, which designates a location with 1 percent or greater chance of being inundated in any given year. FEMA Flood Zone Top 10
Source: First Street Foundation
In Louisiana, a nation-leading 23 percent of properties are located in a FEMA flood zone. In Florida, it's about 17 percent. Arkansas, New Mexico, and Nebraska are perhaps less expected members of the top 10, as is New Jersey, which, with New York City, saw torrential rain and flooding that killed two people earlier this month.
Texas ranks seventh in the country, with about 800,000 properties, or roughly 6.5 percent of the state's total, sitting in a flood zone. Kerr County officials have limited authority to keep people from building in these areas, but even when governments have the ability to prevent risky building projects, they historically haven't. Although one study found that some areas are finally beginning to curb floodplain development, people keep building in perilous places.
'There's an innate draw to the water that we have, but we need to know where the limits are,' said Freudenberg. 'In places that are really dangerous, we need to work toward getting people out of harm's way.'
Kerr County sits in a region known as Flash Flood Alley, and at least four cabins at Camp Mystic sat in an extremely hazardous 'floodway.' Numerous others stood in the path of a 100-year flood. When the Christian summer camp for girls underwent an expansion in 2019, the owners built even more cabins in the water's path.
'It's an unwillingness to think about what the future—and the present—have in store for us,' said Rob Moore, director of the Water and Climate Team at the Natural Resources Defense Council, or NRDC, about Americans' tradition of floodplain development. 'It's a reluctance to own up to the reality we live in.'
Many people don't even know they are in harm's way. According to the NRDC, 14 states have no flood disclosure laws, and in eight they deem the laws 'inadequate.' FEMA maps are also flawed. For one, they can be politically influenced, with homeowners and communities often lobbying to be excluded in order to avoid insurance mandates and potential building costs. And experts say the science underpinning the maps is lagging too.
FEMA 'only maps main river channels and coastal storm surge areas,' explained Jeremy Porter, the head of climate implications research at First Street Foundation. The agency, he added, specifically doesn't model heavy rainfall, isn't great about indicating the risk of urban flooding, and is behind on accounting for climate change. First Street Flood Zone Top 10
Source: First Street Foundation
First Street built a flood model that tries to fill in those gaps. It found that 17.7 million people are at risk of a 100-year flood, a number that's more than double what FEMA's hazard area covers.The state rankings also change, with mountainous areas susceptible to inland flash flooding jumping up the list. West Virginia moves into first, with a staggering 30 percent of properties built in flood-prone areas. Kentucky climbs from 19th to sixth.
Texas remains at seventh, but the portion of properties at risk goes to 15 percent. In Kerr County, FEMA's maps showed 2,560 properties (6.5 percent) in a flood zone. First Street's model nearly doubled that.
'There's a ton of unknown risk across the country,' said Porter, who says better maps are among the most important goals that policymakers can and should work toward. First Street has partnered with the real estate website Redfin to include climate risk metrics in its listings.
Rob Moore says political will is essential to making that type of systemic change when it comes to not only flooding, but other climate risks, such as wildfires or coastal erosion. Strengthening building codes and restricting development in high-risk areas will require similar fortitude.
'Governments and states don't want to tell developers to not put things in a wetland, not put things in a floodplain,' he said. 'We should be telling people don't put them in a flatland, don't build in a way that your home is going to be more susceptible to wildfire.'
Until then, hundreds of communities across the country could—and likely will—be the next Kerr County.
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Wall Street Journal
2 minutes ago
- Wall Street Journal
From Spongy Parks to Oyster Reefs, Investors Are Funding Ways to Adapt to Climate Change
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To manage rainwater and sewage overflow, designers built a bridge-like walkway over a narrow, stone rainwater path along with permeable pavement and an underground water drainage system. The grass-lined park acts like a sponge soaking up a spill; it helps slow down rushing water, allowing it to seep beneath the ground where it pools between stones before permeating the surrounding area. 'You tend not to be investing to generate an income,' said Douglas. 'You're investing to avoid a loss—that often is a bit harder in terms of developing a business case. You often don't have anything to show for it until the flood happens, but fortunately your community wasn't flooded because of the investment.' However, for those pushing the new investment area, protecting existing infrastructure is key. Sierra Club, a U.S.-based environmental group, estimates the global economy could face annual losses exceeding $38 trillion by midcentury because of the effects of climate change. 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Howden's Douglas highlighted regions like Florida and California in the U.S. and Queensland in Australia as areas where insurers are already pulling out of coverage for housing and property. 'Climate change has obviously been a major loss and has been a major factor [in losing coverage], and this concern about insurability has led to a sudden recognition about what lack of insurance can mean in terms of valuations of property and future liquidity,' Douglas said. The Union of Concerned Scientists estimates that by 2100, some 2.4 million homes in the U.S. could be at risk of flooding from rising sea levels, with homes in Florida and California particularly vulnerable. However, it says that two million of those homes could be saved if adaptation efforts are stepped up. Outside of housing and infrastructure, another key area of worry is the agricultural industry. The European Commission, alongside Howden, recently published a report highlighting the risk drought and frost pose to European farming. It estimated there could be a 42% to 66% increase in annual losses, amounting to EUR40 billion ($46.78 billion) by 2050. The European Union has committed funding to support climate adaptation. A recent report from the Barcelona Supercomputing Center found prices for staple foods such as potatoes, rice, onions, lettuce and fruit are being hit by price shocks, and saw huge surges recently due to extreme weather. Likewise, olive farmers in Greece, Spain and Italy have also seen huge losses in recent years, with prices for olive oil rising sharply. Catherine Godschalk, chief investment officer at Calvert Capital, which helped fund the Washington park project, emphasized the importance of resiliency efforts for extreme weather, 'whether that's rainfall exceeding the capacity of water systems in D.C., or the risk of wildfires in California.' The Rock Creek Project was funded by a $25 million environmental impact bond in 2016, sold to Goldman Sachs Urban Investment Group alongside Calvert Impact Capital. Calvert has backed other environmental projects, including through a loan for a forest resilience bond for the upfront costs of forest restoration. In the face of climate change, projects like these are a 'critical part of the broader resilience that we need to be building,' Godschalk said. Write to Yusuf Khan at and Clara Hudson at
Washington Post
31 minutes ago
- Washington Post
CWG Live updates: Cloudy and breezy today, with a great August weekend ahead
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Confidence: Medium Tonight: Still a bit cloudy and slightly humid with a brief rain chance. Lows bottom out near 60 to mid-60s. Confidence: Medium Tomorrow (Saturday): Sunny skies outside of a few midday clouds bubbling up, but so far it looks like we stay dry. Delightful highs in the upper 70s with low 80s are accompanied by amazing dew points in the 50s. Unfamiliar comfort! Confidence: Medium-High 😎 Nice Day! Tomorrow night: Mostly clear, calm winds and pleasant lows in the upper 50s to mid-60s (downtown). Confidence: Medium-High Sunday: Skies are still bright with just a few high clouds around at times. Highs near 80 to mid-80s may only be a couple of degrees warmer (if at all) compared with Saturday. Comfortable dew points in the 50s continue. Confidence: Medium-High 😎 Nice Day! A look ahead Sunday night: Our recent pattern continues. Nighttime skies clear, breezes calm and lows bottom out in the upper 50s to mid-60s. Confidence: Medium Still hanging on to decent weather Monday and Tuesday. We could see a few more clouds, maybe a stray shower (particularly Tuesday) and a hint more humidity. Highs are a bit warmer, or within a few degrees of 85. Confidence: Medium The rest of next week starts to slowly re-humidify as highs climb from mid-80s toward 90. Thunderstorm chances also return. Confidence: Medium Today's daily digit — 6/10: Cooler 70s and cloudy with a few showers possible along with breezes. Improvement over yesterday's hectic, stormy weather day. | 🤚 Your call? The digit is a somewhat subjective rating of the day's weather, on a 0-to-10 scale. Forecast in detail Today (Friday): Our slowing cold front manages to bring cooler, less humid highs within a few degrees of 75 but can't clear the skies just yet. Clouds stick around, and they bring a few showers. Enjoy our coolest day in roughly a month! Breezes gusting near 20 mph from the north-northeast could feel refreshing. Confidence: Medium Tonight: Still a bit cloudy and slightly humid with a brief rain chance. Lows bottom out near 60 to mid-60s. Confidence: Medium Tomorrow (Saturday): Sunny skies outside of a few midday clouds bubbling up, but so far it looks like we stay dry. Delightful highs in the upper 70s with low 80s are accompanied by amazing dew points in the 50s. Unfamiliar comfort! Confidence: Medium-High 😎 Nice Day! Tomorrow night: Mostly clear, calm winds and pleasant lows in the upper 50s to mid-60s (downtown). Confidence: Medium-High Sunday: Skies are still bright with just a few high clouds around at times. Highs near 80 to mid-80s may only be a couple of degrees warmer (if at all) compared with Saturday. Comfortable dew points in the 50s continue. Confidence: Medium-High 😎 Nice Day! A look ahead Sunday night: Our recent pattern continues. Nighttime skies clear, breezes calm and lows bottom out in the upper 50s to mid-60s. Confidence: Medium Still hanging on to decent weather Monday and Tuesday. We could see a few more clouds, maybe a stray shower (particularly Tuesday) and a hint more humidity. Highs are a bit warmer, or within a few degrees of 85. Confidence: Medium The rest of next week starts to slowly re-humidify as highs climb from mid-80s toward 90. Thunderstorm chances also return. Confidence: Medium A 13-year-old boy died in Mount Airy, Maryland, after getting trapped in a storm drain during Thursday's flooding storms, according to the Mount Airy Police Department and news reports. Mount Airy received about four inches of rain Thursday afternoon into early evening, one of the highest totals in the region. 'Mount Airy Police and Fire Departments, along with the Carroll County Sheriff's Office and other emergency responders, worked tirelessly in an attempt to rescue the individual. Despite their heroic efforts, the operation transitioned from a rescue to a recovery,' the Mount Airy Police Department said in a news release. 'The individual was ultimately recovered from the storm drain but, unfortunately, succumbed to injuries sustained during the event.' The boy was swept into a drainage pipe while playing with other kids, WBAL reported. Thursday brought multiple rounds of downpours which produced wide-ranging rainfall totals from 0.05 inches to over 4 inches. Heavy rain affected many areas and there were pockets of flooding, but some locations were just grazed by the eruption of thunderstorms. The most significant rain fell in three swaths: The heaviest downpours eluded the official airport observing locations. Reagan National reported just 0.07 inches, Washington Dulles International 0.29 inches and Baltimore-Washington International Marshall 0.25 inches. The National Weather Service received reports of flash flooding mainly within those swaths of heavier rain. Several reports of high water originated between Potomac and Bethesda in Maryland. There were also isolated flooding reports to the west of Mount Airy and near Towson, Maryland. In addition to flooding, the storms produced some damaging wind gusts that brought down trees, mainly well north and west of the Beltway in Frederick and northern Loudoun counties. But a few trees were also reported down in Northwest Washington.
Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Yahoo
Clean up begins after 'devastating' flash flooding
A clean up has begun after parts of the Isle of Wight were hit by flash flooding following heavy rainfall. Hampshire and Isle of Wight Fire and Rescue Service said it received multiple calls from across the island, especially in Ryde and Cowes, regarding flooded homes from 18:15 BST on Thursday. Images from East Cowes showed large amounts of water in the roads and residents in Cowes could be seen putting sandbags outside their properties. Councillor for East Cowes, Karl Love, said the damage to homes and businesses was "quite significant". He said the sudden heavy rainfall "completely caught us out". "One minute we had blue skies - the next it was like turning the tap on in the shower. It was pretty awful and it's awful for the people being impacted "Yes, drains need to be kept clear, but you just can't cater for that kind of water coming down in that volume - to me there is no doubt about it - this is about global warming and climate change. "The ground was so dry... it had nowhere to go and when you live on the side of a hill like Cowes, then down it comes. "Within half an hour the clouds had all gone but the devastation left behind is quite significant." The town is set to host the annual Cowes Week yachting regatta, which begins on Saturday. You can follow BBC Hampshire & Isle of Wight on Facebook, X (Twitter), or Instagram. Town flooded after delay over barrier, report says Flooding leaves couple homeless for 18 months Related Links Hampshire Fire and Rescue Service
