Warehouse deals lead a property recovery
However capital values of all other retail sectors continued to stagnate.
These are among the findings of the authoritative MSCI/ SCSI index which monitors the performance of Irish commercial investment property.
Retail warehouse values rose 3.1pc in the second quarter lifting capital values by 3.7pc off the trough it reached in the corresponding quarter of 2024.
This recovery was partly due to a 7.8pc rise in rents in this sector during the quarter and also due to US investor Realty Income Corporation becoming a major player in this market this year.
It spent €343.5m buying two portfolios with a combined 11 retail parks including Belgard Retail Park in Tallaght, Dublin 24; Gateway Retail Park, Galway; Parkway Retail Park in Limerick; M1 Retail Park in Drogheda, Co Louth; and Poppyfield Retail Park in Clonmel, Co Tipperary.
In contrast, capital values for shopping centres continued to slip, down 0.4pc in the quarter and 1.3pc over the 12 months, while shopping centre rents were unchanged in the quarter.
Rents on Dublin's two main shopping streets, Grafton St and Henry St, stabilised in the quarter, both up 0.7pc. But the capital values of these properties stagnated with 0.6pc and 0.8pc dips respectively, despite signs that Irish investors still have a liking for some of these trophy properties.
Values for all offices built before 2010 continued to slip but those built since then remained stable with 0.7pc growth. Office rents overall stabilised with a 0.5pc improvement.
A spokesperson for MSCI said investment in Dublin contracted during the first six months of 2025 by 63pc from a year earlier, causing the city to slide into 22nd place in a ranking of the top European investment destinations.
That is a drop from 14th position at the end of December 2024.
Meanwhile, a separate but smaller-scale index from agents JLL, based on a €608m mixed-use property portfolio, reports a 2.5pc increase in Q2 returns for investors bringing the 12-month increase to 7.6pc.
JLL Ireland chief executive John Moran said: 'This marks the fifth consecutive quarter of positive growth (in returns) continuing the positive trajectory established in 2024. The data confirms that the real estate market recovery is gaining momentum, solidifying a new growth phase in the property cycle.'
With JLL's industrial property capital values also increasing by 3.4pc in Q2 and 7.8pc over the 12 months, the agent points out that overall capital values grew for the third consecutive quarter and are now up 1.4pc year-on-year.
His colleague, Niall Gargan, says this growth in overall capital values represents a turnaround from the previous declining trend, which reached a low point in Q3 2023 after having fallen 16.1pc.
Commenting on the strength of the industrial properties, he said 'strength can be attributed to continued supply constraints, strong occupier demand, and sustained rental growth, with industrial ERVs (rents) up 9.4pc year-on-year'.
JLL's index also includes residential complexes and it shows some signs of improvement with 1.2pc growth over the first half of this year bringing 12-month growth to 0.5pc.
Nevertheless, that growth is much slower than values for individual apartments. According to the Geowox Housing Market Report, apartment prices grew by 6.7 pc year-on-year in Q2 2025.
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