Five-week long heatwaves and 46.6C highs as Met Office predicts scorching decade
Its scientists have warned that, in future, two thirds of British summers could be assessed as being in a heatwave, using current classifications. Spells of hot weather in which temperatures exceed 40C could run for four successive days.
Analysis by the Met Office, using global models to create a large number of climate outcomes based on the weather in 2023, shows the risk of 40C temperatures in the UK has been rapidly increasing.
A study published in Weather Journal shows the chance of temperatures hitting 40C is more than 20 times greater than it was in the 1960s. 'From less than 0.2% in the 1960s, it has increased more than six-fold since the 1980s and almost trebled since 2000,' said researchers.
'With ongoing climate change, it is likely to continue increasing in upcoming years, meaning that the return time for 40°C is expected to shorten further.' Previous estimates of the pace of change are now thought to have been underestimated, they added.
Temperatures hit 40C in the UK for the first time on record amid the hot summer of 2022, peaking at 40.3C in Coningsby in Lincolnshire on July 19. It outstripped the previous top temperature of 38.7°C in Cambridge, set just three years earlier, leaving meterologists surprised by the wide margin of escalation.
Not so long ago, a low probability of reaching 40C was estimated for the 2020s, with a return time of 100–300 years. Now – based on current conditions – such temperatures are expected to occur once every 24 years. This rate is expected to rise as the climate warms.
The 'unprecedented' temperatures seen in the UK in 2022 formed part of Europe's warmest summer on record. There were significant impacts, including wildfires, disruptions to transport and power systems and increased mortality.
More than 1,000 excess deaths among older people were recorded around the heatwave's four-day peak, with more than 3,000 heat-related deaths in England over summer 2022.
The study's lead author Dr Gillian Kay, senior scientist at the Met Office, said awareness of the warming trend will help preparedness in the health and in other sectors – not just in the decades to come but 'now and in the near term'.
She said: 'The chance of exceeding 40C has been rapidly increasing, and it is now over 20 times more likely than it was in the 1960s. Because our climate continues to warm, we can expect the chance to keep rising.
"We estimate a 50-50 chance of seeing a 40C day again in the next 12 years. We also found that temperatures several degrees higher than we saw in July 2022 are possible in today's climate.'
The summer of 1976 saw 18 days exceed the temperature threshold that defines a heatwave. Based on current projections, future heatwaves are forecasted to last more than a month (39 days).
The Met Office study, 'Rapidly increasing chance of record UK summer temperatures', drew its conclusions from data in south east England, where the heatwave threshold is 28C on three successive days. In Wales, the threshold temperature is lower, at 25C, suggesting that longer spells of above-average temperatures can be expected here too.
The same model runs also indicated that 63 days each summer (in southeast England) will reach at least 28C, with temperatures hitting 35C on 20 days – four times the current rate. Sign up for the North Wales Live newsletter sent twice daily to your inbox
Study co-author Dr Nick Dunstone, a Met Office Science Fellow, said: 'The well-known hot summer of 1976 had more than a fortnight above 28C, which is a key heatwave threshold in southeast England.
'Our study finds that in today's climate such conditions could persist for a month or more. These findings highlight the need to prepare and plan for the impacts of rising temperatures now, so we can better protect public health, infrastructure, and the environment from the growing threat of extreme heat.'
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