John Curtice gives verdict on John Swinney's indyref2 plan
They are the only party to ever win a majority in the Scottish Parliament, a feat achieved under Alex Salmond in 2011.
But the leading pollster poured cold water over the prospect, saying at The Herald's Unspun Live at the Fringe that it is "most extremely unlikely" the SNP will do so at the Holyrood election next year.
"What is [John Swinney] doing? He is saying to people: if you want independence, vote [SNP]. Do not vote for Alba, do not vote for the Greens,' Curtice said.
READ MORE: Which MPs have received the most donations and from whom? See the full list
"[John Swinney] does not want there to be a fragmented list vote. He wants people to vote for the SNP. The challenge facing the SNP — the thing that has not changed in Scottish politics despite the turbulence of the last two and a half years — is support for independence. We are still around 50/50 on the independence question.'
He added: "Although you hear a lot of talk of people not being concerned about independence anymore, just tell that to most unionist voters. Most unionist voters are deeply concerned about independence.
"Very few people now are willing to vote for the SNP if they are opposed to independence. That is in complete contrast to the position in 2011."
When asked about how he believes the 2026 elections will play out, Curtice said it would be "child's play" for Reform UK to win at least 10 seats.
"I think Kemi Badenoch is becoming more effective, but it is very much a work in progress. The problem the Tories face is that Reform are not just taking voters, they are taking donors, they are taking people,' he added.
"It is very difficult to see any outcome other than the SNP still providing government. What remains highly uncertain is how strong it will be. It could be as low as 45 seats. I think the maximum at the moment is 55 seats.
"But 55 seats — you have only got to find one party to make a deal. With 45 you have got to find two, and that becomes much more difficult.
"I think at the moment it is a race between Reform and Labour over who comes second, and unless the popularity of the Labour government improves, Labour may find themselves in much the same position as they are at the moment."
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Daily Record
2 minutes ago
- Daily Record
Chilling images show Scots racists meet neo-Nazis in Germany to plot 'revolution'
Sinister Caledonia Club youth branch meet like-minded Euro racists to prepare for "national revolution" Young Scottish racists joined neo-Nazis in Germany to practice combat drills and plot 'revolution'. The sinister Caledonia Club sent a contingent to form bonds with far right extremists from other European nations. Extremist recruits at the boot camp - organised by neo-Nazi party The Third Way (Der Dritte Weg)- marched through the countryside in the rural Thuringia region, commando-style, with other bigots from the Netherlands, Germany and England. More than 100 activists took part in hand-to-hand combat training and lectures in 'national revolutionary', anti-immigration theory. Recruits at the 'Der Dritte Weg Youth Weekend' were addressed by the party chairman Matthias Fischer, a veteran of the German far-right scene, who is affiliated with several extreme groups. The Daily Record was the first in the UK to highlight the rise of 'active clubs' in the UK in 2023 but these have now cropped up in towns and cities up and down the country. Many promote 'traditional' values and preach about history - but mix in a toxic 'white only' creed that seeks to block other cultures. David Lawrence, of the Hope Not Hate anti-fascist group, said the rise of such groups should be taken very seriously, due to their fascination with causing violent disruption and spreading hate in difficult times. He said: 'These fascist groups are blending of physical training with political extremism and that gives them a powerful radicalisation tool. 'Young men start to associate with these positive changes in their own bodies with extremist ideologies, and it kind of can ferment this very intense kind of in group loyalty.' Der Dritte Weg - or The Third Way - has established itself as one of the premier neo-Nazi groups in Western Europe and they have been trying establish links to other Nazi groups overseas. 'This is highly concerning because it enables the spread of tactics and even resources across borders and enables coordination on campaigns.' On the German boot camp in June, the Scottish fascists were awoken at 5.30am for a group breakfast. During a 25km march they stopped at a village war memorial, where the legend of a local war hero were crudely mangled to fit their right wing mantra. After taking part in archery and wrestling lessons they were taught on how to make graffiti - to help spread their extreme views on Scottish streets. The Third Way write-up of the weekend states: 'It has always been important for both our party and our Youth Working Group to establish and maintain contacts and friendships across national borders. Our members are regularly invited to events and demonstrations abroad. 'The impressions gained during this weekend are priceless, both for the youth and for all the helpers and the organizing team, and new ideas have already been developed that will be implemented at future NRJ weekends.' David Lawrence said the 'active club' trend has accelerated throughout the USA, through Europe and beyond, with some members linked to extreme groups like Patriotic Alternative and the Homeland Party, as well as banned groups like National Action. He said: 'Caledonia Club is something of a rebranding of Active Club Scotland. They are continuing the violent, hyper masculine ideal at the heart of fascist ideology, with combat training and pseudo military paraphernalia. 'We're increasingly also seeing this kind of international networking. 'The dangers posed by these secretive, militant brotherhoods, shouldn't be underestimated. Doing all this training and developing this capacity for violence is because they expect to use it against minority groups and anti fascists. 'The active clubs are often quite careful in their public output to avoid direct calls for violence. But the material is saturated in kind of latent, violent potential. 'The whole reason for the active club model in the first place was to try to avoid arrests. That's why they have these quite decentralized branches.' The Caledonia Club is believed to have morphed from the Active Club Scotland after the Daily Record exposed their activities. Members meet in secret for gym sessions and wear masks when taking part in field trips to iconic locations. They are obsessed with getting 'back to nature' and use this thinking to support a ban on immigration. Advanced communication channels via 'nationalist hubs' also seek to accelerate the growth of racist ideals. Recent months have seen such active clubs sprout massively across Europe after they were originally founded in the USA. A spokesperson for the Stand Up To Racism group added: 'The formations of fringe group like these further highlights the fertile ground that both the rise of Reform UK, a racist, far right party, and Starmer's shameful capitulation to racism is creating. 'These groups sit at the margins of society but the rise of racism is making them grow in confidence that their views as shared by others, the anti-racist majority in Scotland we've seen mobilise time and time again should disavow them of that notion'. The Caledonia Club posts photos of its field trips to the Scottish countryside, making clear that they are promoting the ideals of 'white boys'. The group uses the slogan 'Hail Alba'. The Third Way - often abbreviated to III. Weg - is an official political party that was founded in 2013, when it was closely linked to the Free Network South (FNS) organisation, which was banned in 2014. The youth division - the NRJ (Nationalrevolutionäres Jugendwochenende) have been seen protesting against LGBTQ type events. Join the Daily Record WhatsApp community!
Daily Record
2 minutes ago
- Daily Record
Must do better on rich-poor attainment gap as Sturgeon pledge 'in tatters'
Record View says the report card is clear – the SNP government is failing to narrow the attainment gap according to a timescale it set out itself. A week is said to be a long time in politics, which makes a decade seem like an eternity. Party leaders of all persuasions would prefer if the public couldn't recall the big promises they made around election times. But some policy pledges are so massive they can't just be quietly ignored when events render them redundant. Flush from another Holyrood election victory in 2016, Nicola Sturgeon's SNP government told Scots that narrowing the poverty attainment gap would become a key ambition. It would take years but we would eventually see children from the poorest backgrounds doing just as well in their exams as those from the richest. The 10-year anniversary of that historic commitment is now less than 12 months away, but the poverty attainment gap stubbornly persists. The tiny amount of progress made this year is nowhere near good enough. When it comes to National 5s and Highers, the richest kids still do better. The attainment gap remains around 17 per cent, just as it was last year. This is not to ignore the very successes achieved by pupils across the country. More youngsters are finding their way to universities. That's a positive. But when governments ask voters to judge them on their education record – as Sturgeon famously did – they must be judged accordingly. And the report card is clear – the SNP government is failing to narrow the attainment gap according to a timescale it set out itself. Promises cost nothing. But voters don't forget when they are not met. Firefighter fears A firefighter is a public servant that people living in Scotland should hope they never have to rely on. These heroes are first to respond when a blaze is ripping through a family home or a business. They are also first on the scene during horrific road traffic accidents. But cuts to this vital service have seen response times rise over the course of a decade. And now the trade union representing firefighters has warned median response times may jump to 10 minutes. Such a rise would be a disaster because a fire can do untold damage in a short space of time. The union believes a rise is likely due to cuts to fire stations under consultation by the single fire service. They believe these cuts pose a huge threat to public safety. SNP ministers must intervene to ensure any savings do not trigger a rise in emergency response times.
The Herald Scotland
17 minutes ago
- The Herald Scotland
Kate Forbes business and economy prowess is major SNP loss
All too often in politics, economic and business matters are covered by soundbites which are at best banal and at worst downright ridiculous. In terms of the latter, we should remember those Conservative politicians who told us all that Brexit was going to be good for the UK economy, while keeping a straight face. You got the impression that some, though surely not all, even believed the utter nonsense they were peddling. The Tory Brexiters constitute an extreme, but crystal clear, example of just how dismal politicians can be on business and the economy. What is plain is that too much of the narrative on matters business and economic from politicians, having listened to it over the years and decades, tends to demonstrate either a lack of understanding or a disposition to trot out learned ideologies without thinking about what is being said, or both. Ms Forbes, in contrast, has understandably won the respect of many people in the business community and others interested in economic issues. And a significant proportion of these individuals will not agree with Ms Forbes's political outlook, notably her passion for independence. This relatively broad respect surely speaks volumes about the Deputy First Minister's abilities when it comes to the economy and business. While she is not alone in the political sphere in being a serious thinker on the economy, my experience over years and decades from speaking to politicians is this is a far rarer trait than many people might expect. All too often among politicians, coherent arguments around economic matters are absent. Since she became Deputy First Minister in May last year, I have had two sit-down interviews with Ms Forbes covering a broad range of business and economic issues. Unlike many interviews with politicians on such matters - where there is much dispensable because it amounts to hot air or sheer spin with no supporting arguments that stack up - there was plenty of substance and original thought from Ms Forbes across the full range of topics covered. And there was a refreshing big-picture view on the major issues. In an interview in June last year, Ms Forbes revealed the greater income tax burden for higher earners in Scotland relative to the rest of the UK would be kept 'under review', taking into account 'how easy it is for taxpayers to shift'. However, Ms Forbes flagged figures from HM Revenue & Customs showing more people had come to Scotland from the rest of the UK than had moved in the opposite direction, against the backdrop of devolved income tax. And she highlighted the part 'progressive' taxation played in funding the Scottish child payment for lower-income households north of the Border amid UK austerity. That said, when asked if she thought there had been too great a divergence in the income tax burden for higher earners in Scotland compared with those elsewhere in the UK as things stood, Ms Forbes replied: 'No but I think we keep it under review.' Read more She added: 'I was…public finance minister when income tax was first devolved and I recall at the time us making it clear that we would follow the Adam Smith principles of taxation and one of the commitments that we made was to always keep the divergence under review to understand the behavioural impact because I want to be independent but we are devolved and that has implications for how easy it is for taxpayers to shift.' It was a most considered response, on a topic that has undoubtedly been highly controversial among the business community and more broadly over the years. And it signalled what was to come. When I spoke to Ms Forbes again in June this year, she said: 'The First Minister was very clear when he became leader that he didn't believe that you could continually raise income tax, and that we should provide certainty. And that's what last year's Budget delivered - the Budget announcement last year for this financial year. And the programme for government then built on that in May - being very clear that there wouldn't be further divergence from the rest of the UK on income tax for the remainder of this parliament. 'And the reasons for that is because certainty matters in a world that seems to be constantly in flux with lots of global headwinds and challenges of recruitment for businesses. The more certainty that we can provide, the better.' There was much focus on the strained relationship between the Scottish Government and the business community ahead of John Swinney being appointed First Minister and Ms Forbes taking up her Cabinet roles in May last year. Read more Ms Forbes was swift to engage with the business community after becoming Deputy First Minister and Cabinet Secretary for Economy and Gaelic. And in the interview in June last year, when asked whether she saw it as difficult to balance maximising economic growth with social justice, Ms Forbes replied: 'No, it is not difficult to balance at all. I have never seen even an iota of difference in our desire for resilient public services, for eradicating child poverty, for protecting our environment, and our economic objectives, for the very simple reason that we can't achieve those objectives without economic growth.' She added: 'So when I look at our mission to eradicate child poverty, clearly we are investing substantially in the Scottish child payment. That investment comes through progressive taxation because of a growing and thriving economy but it can't happen without the creation of well-paid, secure jobs, and that is where a growing economy creates the jobs.' Another measured, thought-through answer. It might seem like common sense to many. However, such sense is not anywhere near as common among politicians on such topics as many people would probably imagine. Labour, for example, has shunned the huge boost to the UK economy that would come from rejoining the European single market, seemingly because such a move is not viewed as politically expedient. And it is worth noting, in a general context, there are significant numbers of people in the business community too who fail to grasp the bigger economic picture. Asked in June if she believed the overall relationship between the Scottish Government and business had improved over the last year, Ms Forbes replied: 'I think so. I mean, the first meetings I had when I became Economy Secretary was with all the business organisations one by one, to understand what their top asks were.' Ms Forbes declared the Scottish Government had since then worked through the first programme for government, then the Budget last December, and then the most recent programme for government 'to try and deliver against those asks'. She said: 'I think the business community understand that we can't do everything overnight, but we can either stop doing things that would otherwise have made the cost of business higher, or do things that lower the cost of business. The most recent programme for government led with economic growth and prosperity. So our sentiment, my sentiment is pro-economy, pro-prosperity, pro-business.' This is a message that seems, on the face of it, like it should go down well with the business community. Of course, this is also the broad message from Mr Swinney. And senior figures in the business community, including those who do not agree with the First Minister's politics, have praised Mr Swinney's willingness to engage and listen, and take action. That said, there is no escaping the reality that Ms Forbes's decision will leave a big gap for the SNP to fill on business and the economy.
