Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred is expected to cross the coast. How does it compare to past storms?

The Guardian

08-03-2025

As ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred looks likely to cross the coast, authorities remain concerned about heavy rainfall and the potential for flooding.
It is expected to make landfall in Queensland on Saturday as a tropical low.
According to the Bureau of Meteorology, over the years, at least 20 cyclones have approached within 300km of south-east Queensland and northern NSW.
Only a few have made landfall, but history shows that cyclones, and even ex-cyclones, have the potential to wreak havoc in this corner of the country.
Dr Stephen Turton, an adjunct professor at Central Queensland University who has studied tropical cyclones for more than 30 years, said events in 1954 and 1974 caused extensive damage, in large part because of extensive rainfall and flooding.
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Griffith University environmental historian, Dr Margaret Cook, said cyclones and tropical lows could cause 'cascading disasters', leading to flooding and other impacts, such as health problems and electricity outages.
In the aftermath of such storms, governments have tried to learn and better prepare for the future.
Here's what has happened in the past – and how Alfred compares.
An unnamed cyclone that crossed the coast at Coolangatta on 20 February 1954 brought such devastation it was dubbed 'the Great Gold Coast Cyclone'.
That was before the Bureau of Meteorology instituted its cyclone naming policy. It was also before the use of satellites, Turton said, which made the event difficult to confirm as a 'true tropical cyclone'. Regardless, it caused a lot of damage.
At least 26 people died and the cyclone caused widespread flooding and structural damage from Bundaberg to Grafton.
Springbrook, about an hour's drive inland from Coolangatta, recorded 900mm of rain in the 24-hours before the cyclone hit land, according to an account in the journal Climate Dynamics.
Boats were reported in treetops at Beachmere, as the cyclone crossed the coast, bringing storm surges of 6.4 metres to Moreton Bay. About 200 metres of the Byron Bay jetty was swept away, taking with it the town's entire fishing fleet.
One of the worst hit areas was near Cudgen, a small coastal town in New South Wales, where houses were 'blown apart and trees more than 1 metre in diameter were twisted out of the ground'.
Flooding triggered by the cyclone swept across the northern rivers region, particularly affecting Lismore, Casino, Kyogle and Murwillumbah.
The Courier Mail reported the first clear message from Lismore just after 5pm, after extreme rainfall caused record flood levels of 12.11 metres.
'It has been a night of horror. We need help,' said a message broadcast on radio station 2LM. 'More than 2,000 people are homeless. More than 1,000 are sheltering on high ground. We need 1,000 blankets tonight.' From Kyogle, later revealed as a 'scene of devastation', there was no word.
Turton said while ex-tropical cyclone Alfred would bring heavy rainfall to similar areas, the human context today was totally different. 'The Gold Coast in 1954 was nothing like it is today,' he said, adding that back then the area was made up mostly of smaller towns populated with beach shacks.
Cook, who specialises in climate-related disasters, said Dinah, a category three tropical cyclone which remained off the coast (making landfall at K'gari and then heading back out to sea) still did significant damage to the Gold Coast, which was by then starting to resemble the Surfers Paradise of today.
Storm surges almost completely washed away the sand on the beaches. Waves crashed over the embankments and undermined the esplanade, causing parts to collapse, she said. Some buildings toppled into the sea.
'It was a really big problem because they were worried about the tourism industry,' she said. 'The beaches were off limits for a long time because there was just no sand.'
Houses 'were unroofed' at Bundaberg, Maryborough and along the Sunshine and Gold Coasts; the sea wall at Nudgee was destroyed, and homes were flooded with 0.66 metres of seawater. Data from the Insurance Council of Australia shows insurance losses were equivalent to $4.68bn.
'Storm surges also affected the Gold Coast and water lapped the decking of the Jubilee Bridge, which is about 1.5 metres above highest astronomical tide.'
Cook said a series of cyclones hit a similar strip of coastline in 1974, beginning with Wanda, a category one cyclone that caused the 'second biggest recorded floods since colonisation'.
The ground was already wet and saturated when Wanda arrived on 24 January, crossing the coast at Maryborough, about 250km north of Brisbane. More than 500mm of rainfall fell on Brisbane within 24-hours, triggering the city's worst floods since 1893.
Sixteen people were killed in Brisbane and Ipswich. Thousands of homes were inundated; 56 in Brisbane were completely destroyed, and 41 were washed away in Ipswich, according to the Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience.
Tom Mortlock, head of climate analytics for the Asia-Pacific at financial services group Aon and an adjunct fellow in the Climate Change Research Centre at UNSW, said Alfred was a reminder that tropical cyclones had the potential to track this far south, as Dinah had done.
He said, Wanda, which followed a similar path to Alfred, was a good benchmark for what could occur, he said.
'The difference then was that there wasn't as much infrastructure and people as there are nowadays,' Mortlock said. The full impact and costs associated with Alfred won't be known for some time, but he expects it could be a 'multi-billion dollar event in terms of insured losses'.
Ex-tropical cyclone Zoe followed just six weeks after Cyclone Wanda, crossing the coast at Coolangatta on 12 March 1974, then curving back out to sea.
Wind damage from Zoe was limited, but flooding was extensive, and caused hundreds of evacuations in northern NSW, according to the bureau. It also caused landslides and severe erosion of Gold Coast beaches.
The big legacy of the 1974 floods was the formation of Queensland's State Emergency Service, Cook said, replacing what had previously been, something more akin to a 'Dad's army'.