Latest news with #ACLED
Newsweek
5 hours ago
- Politics
- Newsweek
Russia-Ukraine War Battles Hit All-Time High
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. July saw the highest number of battles since the start of President Vladimir Putin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine as Russia stepped up its offensive in eastern Ukraine, according to analysis. Independent monitor ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data) said that in July, there were over 2,600 battles—the highest monthly tally over the three-and-a-half years of war. ACLED also told Newsweek that Kyiv had shifted the targets of its airstrikes to defense contractors in a bid to disrupt Moscow's production of drones. Ukrainian soldiers load a pickup truck on July 18, 2025 in Donetsk Region, near Kostiantynivka on the front line. Ukrainian soldiers load a pickup truck on July 18, 2025 in Donetsk Region, near Kostiantynivka on the front It Matters A record number of battles and Ukraine and Russia increasing drone and missile attacks outlined by ACLED exemplify how the U.S. administration's efforts for a ceasefire have yielded little progress, ahead of a summit in Alaska between President Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin on August 15. What To Know ACLED's latest analysis described how Russia's offensive "went into overdrive" in July, with over 2,600 battles recorded, the highest number since the war started on February 24, 2022, it says. The number of monthly battles has been increasing, reaching high after high, throughout the last several months of 2025. It noted how Russian forces had closed in on Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka in the Donetsk region and on Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region. Moscow also made gains further east toward the Dnipropetrovsk region. Ukraine has launched counterattacks toward the city of Sumy. The high number of battles comes amid a spike in Russia's remote attacks on Ukrainian civilians in July to reach an all-time high of 458 which killed 250 people, the highest toll since September 2022 according to ACLED. Only one third of these casualties were in the Donetsk region where the fighting was concentrated, ACLED said, with Kyiv facing 30 long-range drone and missile strikes, the highest since March 2022. The outlet said that Ukraine's forces increased its drone, missile and artillery attacks on Russian soil by a fifth in July, from 1,167 to 1,400. This included a 75 percent increase in strikes occurring outside of Russia's border regions. Between June and July, the Ukrainian army switched priorities from military airfields to disrupting Russia's drone production, ACLED said. On Friday, Ukrainian drones struck the Yenisei radar station, a component of Moscow's advanced S-500 air defense system, in Russian-occupied Crimea, according to Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR). But Russian attacks against Ukraine show no sign of abating, with attacks killing at least eight civilians between Friday and Saturday, including a strike on a bus in Kherson in which two people died, according to Ukrainian authorities. Ukraine's air force said Saturday that Russian forces launched against Ukraine 47 Shahed-type drones and decoys from Russia's Rostov, Kursk and Smolensk regions and two Iskander-K missiles from the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia region. ACLED told Newsweek that as Russia's remote attacks on Ukrainian civilians increase, Kyiv has shifted the targets of its airstrikes to defense contractors with strikes that continue to reach further inside Russia to disrupt the production of drones Moscow launches. What People Are Saying ACLED Senior Analyst for Europe and Central Asia Nichita Gurcov to Newsweek: "Russia's grinding offensive in eastern Ukraine went into overdrive in July—leading to the highest number of battles since the all-out war began in early 2022. Alongside the intense battles, Ukrainian civilians are suffering from remote attacks." What Happens Next Ukraine's drone strikes on Russian facilities and Moscow's continuing bombardment of Ukrainian civilian infrastructure set the scene for talks in Alaska between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin that the U.S. hopes will help end the war.
Atlantic
4 days ago
- Politics
- Atlantic
Where Have the Proud Boys Gone?
Last week, the Department of Homeland Security debuted a recruitment strategy to expand the ranks of ICE: sign-on bonuses. Thanks to a rush of cash from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the department announced that it's offering up to $50,000 to newly hired federal law-enforcement agents. The offer caught the eye of one group that seemed to be particularly pleased by the government's exciting career opportunity. On Telegram, an account linked to the Toledo, Ohio, chapter of the Proud Boys declared: 'Toledo Boys living high on the hog right now!!' Whether members of the extremist group have pursued job openings at ICE, much less been hired and handed a big check, is unclear. I asked the Toledo chapter whether its members are applying to work for the government, but I didn't hear back. Tricia McLaughlin, a Department of Homeland Security spokesperson, said in an email that 'any individual who desires to join ICE will undergo intense background investigations and security clearances—no exception.' But the Toledo Proud Boys' enthusiasm for the work, if nothing else, is telling. The Trump administration is enacting a mass-deportation campaign centered around aggression and cruelty. The Proud Boys are staunchly against undocumented immigrants, and have repeatedly intimidated and physically antagonized their enemies (during the first Trump administration, they often got into fights with left-wing protesters). The group's ideals are being pursued—but by ICE and the government itself. Trump's deportations aren't what they seem There was every reason to believe that the Proud Boys would run wild in Donald Trump's second term. On his first day back in the White House, Trump pardoned everyone who was convicted for crimes related to the insurrection on January 6, 2021—including roughly 100 known members of the Proud Boys and other extremist organizations. They had received some of the harshest sentences tied to the Capitol riot: All 14 people who were still in prison when Trump returned to office were affiliated with either the Proud Boys or the Oath Keepers. At the time, a terrorism expert at the Council on Foreign Relations warned that the pardons 'could be catastrophic for public safety,' sending a message to extremist groups that violence in the name of MAGA 'is legal and legitimate.' Enrique Tarrio, the former leader of the Proud Boys who himself was pardoned, announced that there would be hell to pay: 'I'm happy that the president is focusing not on retribution, and focusing on success,' he said on Infowars, 'but I will tell you that I'm not gonna play by those rules.' Six months later, though, the Proud Boys have been surprisingly quiet. According to data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED), a nonprofit that tracks political violence, the Proud Boys have been less active in 2025 than over the preceding several years. Since his release, Tarrio's most prominent action has been helping launch 'ICERAID,' a website that pays people in crypto in exchange for reporting undocumented immigrants. Tarrio, who did not respond to an interview request through a lawyer, also co-hosts frequent livestreams on X. In one episode of a livestream last month, Tarrio nursed a cigarette while a man who identified himself only as 'Patriot Rob' waxed nostalgic about how inescapable the Proud Boys once were. In 2020, members of the militant group showed up at anti-lockdown rallies across the country, clashed with racial-justice protesters, and earned a shout-out from Trump himself during a presidential debate. (The Proud Boys so frequently traveled to Washington, D.C., for various kinds of protests in 2020 that Politico wrote about their favorite bar.) Now, Patriot Rob said on the livestream, 'there's very few of us left.' It's unclear how many Proud Boy chapters there are today, but some seem to be defunct: Those in Philadelphia and Michigan have let their websites turn into dead links and stopped posting on Telegram, the social platform of choice for most Proud Boys. I reached out to 10 Proud Boy chapters and requested interviews. None was willing to speak with me. After I told a Miami chapter that I had spoken with experts on the current state of the Proud Boys, someone who identified himself only as 'Alex' responded: 'Experts' lol Experts at what? Sucking cock Y'all can go fuck yourselves!' The East Tennessee Chapter, perhaps mistaking my name for a woman's, replied by saying, 'We're going to request some nudes in order to confirm your identity 👌.' The Proud Boys have not disappeared. They have been spotted at a 'Tesla Takedown' event in Salem, Oregon; marched with anti-abortion activists in San Francisco; and confronted protesters outside of the 'Alligator Alcatraz' ICE facility. Other right-wing groups have been more active. After the Texas floods last month, a leader of the Patriot Front claimed that the extremist group was involved in recovery efforts to help ' European peoples.' Patriot Front, which has also held several marches across the country since the start of Trump's second term, remains a small organization. Estimates put its membership at 200 to 300 people, compared with the thousands that researchers believe are, or at least were, in the Proud Boys. On the whole, militia groups are 'keeping it low-key,' Amy Cooter, the deputy director and a co-founder of the Institute for Countering Digital Extremism, told me. Since the start of the year, ACLED has recorded 108 extremist protests nationwide—not even half as many as at this point in 2022. This is not entirely unexpected. As my colleague Adrienne LaFrance has reported, in the 1990s, a surge of militia activity and white nationalism appeared to die down after the Oklahoma City bombing—but those movements never disappeared; they simply moved underground. Today, part of the reason for the apparent decline is that even after Trump's pardons, far-right groups are still dealing with the hangover of January 6. Militia groups have always been relatively splintered, but the insurrection exacerbated the fissures. Some Oath Keeper groups are divided on whether their leader, Stewart Rhodes, went too far on January 6, when he rallied Oath Keepers to breach the Capitol, Cooter said. Some members have been vocal about leaving the organization, citing Rhodes's leadership. In 2022, the Southern Poverty Law Center recorded five active Oath Keepers chapters, down from 70 in 2020. (The number of current chapters is not clear.) Meanwhile, the Proud Boys fractured in 2021, after Reuters uncovered court records indicating that Tarrio had served as an informant to local and federal law enforcement before the group was founded. ('I don't recall any of this,' Tarrio told Reuters at the time.) Many Proud Boys chapters disavowed him, including part of his own in Miami. The city now has two separate chapters, an anti-Tarrio and a pro-Tarrio one. In January, I emailed the Toledo Proud Boys chapter to ask about Tarrio. I received an unattributed reply expressing disappointment that Tarrio had 'turned his back and squealed on brothers.' I reached back out this week, and received a similar response: 'Tarrio is a rat, punk, and low life!' The respondent also said this: 'You breland, are exactly what President Trump said. .fake news! I'm sure you preferred the last potatoe!' (I asked if by 'the last potato,' the account meant Joe Biden. 'Ahhh yes. .SMH,' the respondent said. 'You know. .the illegitimate one! The stolen election one! The one who wandered around aimlessly!') The bigger reason that these far-right groups remain underground is that the Trump administration's aggressive agenda has left them with little to do. One of the motivating issues for the Proud Boys, Oath Keepers, and other extremist groups is strong opposition to undocumented immigrants. After the presidential election, a leader of the Texas chapter of the Three Percenters, a militia group, reportedly wrote to Trump to offer manpower in enacting mass deportations. But ICE and other federal agencies are engaging in forceful action against immigrants backed by the state in a way that surpasses what the Oath Keepers or the Proud Boys could ever do. ICE agents, not far-right militias, are the ones who have smashed through car windows, thrown people into unmarked vans, and detained them indefinitely. Even apart from immigration, 'groups are taking a hands-off approach right now because their interests are often aligned with the government,' Freddy Cruz, a researcher at the Western States Center, a nonprofit that tracks extremism, told me. The Proud Boys was started in 2016 in part to double down on traditional gender norms. Gavin McInnes, the group's founder, has described the Proud Boys as a 'pro-Western fraternity' for men who 'long for the days when girls were girls and men were men.' The Proud Boys' extreme pro-male views are less distinct than they once were, as MAGA has embraced Andrew Tate and other openly misogynistic figures of the so-called manosphere. As a result, the Proud Boys have one less point to rally around. Still, the Proud Boys and other right-wing militias might not stay underground forever. Under the right conditions, they could surge once again. 'These groups are really responsive to news cycles,' Cooter said. They have specific flash points—immigration, the Second Amendment, and supposed 'election integrity'—that can mobilize them in certain contexts, she explained. The Proud Boys, Oath Keepers, and other established far-right groups still have infrastructure, a durable brand name, and the precedent that Trump might pardon them if things go awry. In May, Tarrio was reportedly invited to Mar-a-Lago, where he briefly spoke with Trump. Newer groups continue to organize. Patriot Front, for example, has teamed up with 'Active Clubs,' a loose network of white supremacists and neo-Nazis who run their own mixed-martial-arts fight clubs. Together, all of this could help give extremist groups a head start that they didn't have in the first Trump administration, when the Proud Boys and many other militia groups began to find their footing. The pieces are there, even if the moment isn't yet.
The Hindu
29-07-2025
- Politics
- The Hindu
Over 770 Palestinians killed at the controversial Gaza Humanitarian Foundation's aid distribution sites
At least 1,874 Palestinians have died in aid-related violence since October 2023. Of these, approximately 1,129 — about 60% — were killed in the past two months alone, coinciding with GHF's operations in the region. Most of those killed (at least 1,597) were civilians shot by the Israeli Defense Forces while seeking aid in or around distribution sites, according to data compiled by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), an international non-profit that tracks global violence. The 'Other/Contested Claims' section in the graphic above also includes civilian deaths. However, the exact circumstances of these killings remain disputed, as the claims have been denied or refuted by the alleged perpetrators. Some of these incidents involved Israeli-backed groups rather than the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) directly, according to data compiled from news reports. Also Read: Stop the slaughter: On Trump, Israel and the Gaza war Since May 26, aid-related killings have occurred almost daily. The violence peaked in the third week of June, with June 17 recording the highest single-day toll — 97 people. One in four Palestinians have been killed while seeking aid since May 26 Between May 26 and July 18, the ACLED data shows that 4,157 Palestinians were killed in Gaza. Of these, approximately 1,005 — about 25% — were civilians shot by the IDF while seeking aid or near aid distribution centers. However, ACLED also records numerous incidents where civilians came under direct IDF fire, but the number of casualties could not be confirmed. In comparison, data from the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) reports that 4,489 Palestinians were killed between May 28 and July 16 alone, bringing the total number of Palestinian deaths since October 7, 2023, to 58,573. Thameen Al-Kheetan, spokesperson for the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, on June 24 condemned the inhumane conditions faced by Palestinians and held both the GHF and Israel responsible. 'We are seeing scenes of chaos around the food distribution points of the 'Gaza Humanitarian Foundation' and the few UN humanitarian convoys,' says Mr. Al-Kheetan. 'Israel's militarised humanitarian assistance mechanism is in contradiction with international standards on aid distribution', he adds. Aid distribution: Over 750 of 1,129 killed were in and around GHF aid centres Currently, aid is distributed across Gaza through two distinct channels: one facilitated by United Nations agencies, international aid organizations, and local authorities using pre-existing modes of distribution; the other through distribution sites set up by the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation. Regarding the first channel — comprising the UN and various international aid agencies — Israeli authorities have imposed severe restrictions, rejecting or obstructing the majority of aid delivery requests. Between March 18 and July 15, of the 1,124 humanitarian missions or requests submitted, 633 (56.4%) were either denied (543) or withdrawn (90). Only about one-third (33%) of the missions were successfully carried out without interference from Israeli authorities. In a briefing, the World Food Programme's (WFP) Deputy Executive Director and Chief Operating Officer, Carl Skau, stated that WFP teams are often stuck spending between 15 to 20 hours straight at checkpoints, fuel supplies and spare parts for vehicles are insufficient, and while there is enough food at the borders to feed the entire population for about two months, incoming supplies are not 'enough to turn the tide of hunger.' The GHF began its aid distribution on May 26, 2025, operating across four sites in Gaza. Three of these sites were in Israeli-militarised zones in the southern region of the strip - on the northern boundary of the 'Morag corridor', and one site is near Wadi Gaza, along the Salah al-Din highway, as shown in the map below. The area surrounding the aid distribution site near Wadi Gaza also soon came under the control of Israeli forces. As of July 23, UNOCHA reported that approximately 87.8% of the Gaza Strip is within the Israeli-militarised zone, under displacement (or evacuation) orders by the IDF, or where these overlap, as shown in the map below. As of July 16, one of the sites (also called 'SDS1', shown above) has been closed by the GHF. At least 771 Palestinians seeking aid have been killed in and around GHF's aid distribution centers between May 26 and July 18. Of these, 708 were reportedly killed by the Israeli Defense Forces. The number of people killed in and around GHF centers on a daily basis is shown below in red and gray. As shown below, 68% of those killed while seeking aid died in or around GHF distribution centres. There were at least 13 additional incidents of the IDF opening fire on civilians and injuring several while they were seeking aid or being in the vicinity of aid distribution centers. In four of these cases, casualty figures remain unknown. Israel-backed armed groups and the anatomy of contested claims The data presented is collated by checking local and international news reports. When it comes to the killings over aid, the 'Others/contested claims' silo in the graphics above is essentially a mixture of the following scenarios: Armed Palestinian gang members or militia looting aid trucks and opening fire on civilians. Hamas or Hamas-affiliated units or forces (like the Sahm Unit) executing or engaging in a clash with armed gangs/clans/militias over looting of aid and theft. In some of these incidents the latter were accused of collaborating with Israel. The IDF striking civilians and either refuting the claim or claiming that the latter were associated with Hamas. Over the course of 21 months, the IDF has claimed to have killed Hamas members on numerous occasions (whether aid-related or not), and there have been several news reports stating that civilians were also brutally targeted in such instances. Apart from what is shown in the graphic above, there were incidents where the IDF claims to have fired 'warning shots,' but people were killed. 2.1 million Palestinians in Gaza face acute food insecurity On July 23, 2025, a day after the head of Al-Shifa hospital in Gaza City announced that 21 children had died across the Gaza Strip due to malnutrition and starvation, 111 aid organisations and human rights groups warned that mass starvation is spreading in Gaza. Repeated forced displacements through evacuation orders and destruction of local food production mechanisms has crippled the population and economy. After more than 21 months of relentless bloodshed that has claimed the lives of over 59,000 Palestinians, the people of Gaza are grappling with escalating shortages of food, clean water, medical supplies, and other basic necessities. A report released by UNOCHA on Wednesday (July 23, 2025), states that with the 2.1-million-strong population of Palestinians in Gaza facing a high level of acute food insecurity, one million (10 lakh) or half of them are facing 'emergency levels of food insecurity. And over 470,000 (4.7 lakh) people are facing 'catastrophic' levels of food insecurity. But in Gaza, Palestinians are not safe even while seeking the aid essential for their survival.
Economist
28-07-2025
- Politics
- Economist
Satellite images show how receiving aid in Gaza became so deadly
Graphic detail | Gunshots and stampedes Hundreds of Palestinians have reportedly been killed by Israeli gunfire and in crushes while trying to collect food Your browser does not support this video. In June alone 800 Gazans were killed while trying to collect food, according to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), a monitor that uses reports from Gaza's health service. The deaths came amid a deepening humanitarian crisis in the strip. The UN says every resident of Gaza faces food insecurity and a third have gone days without eating. Local health officials report that more than 100 people died of starvation in the past few weeks. On July 27th Israel paused its assault in parts of Gaza to let in more aid. Since then extra lorries have crossed and Jordan and the United Arab Emirates have dropped supplies from the air. Our charts and maps below show how in recent months the scramble for aid often turned lethal. Deaths at aid sites soared more than eight-fold between May and June. That coincides with the start of work by the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), an American-backed group set up to distribute aid. The GHF began operating on May 26th. Israel claimed it would stop Hamas, the Islamist movement that controls the strip, from using the flow of aid to tighten its grip on the civilian population, as it said the group had done under the previous UN-led system. According to a report by the New York Times, Israeli military officials have since admitted that they had no evidence Hamas routinely stole UN aid. The GHF has opened four large distribution hubs—three in the south and one in central Gaza—with plans for more. Some aid is still handed out at smaller UN sites, but supplies there have almost run out:organisers say Israel has strictly limited its deliveries for months. AL-MAWASI AL-MAWASI Tents and displaced people Tents and displaced people Route start Route start Mediterranean Sea Tents and displaced people Tents and displaced people Tents and displaced people Tents and displaced people Route start Military zone/under evacuation order Route start Checkpoint Checkpoint People in the courtyard area SDS2 Aid distribution site Destroyed buildings RAFAH RAFAH SDS1 Aid distribution site EGYPT EGYPT Sources: PlanetLabs, July 18th 2025; OCHA; IDF; Gaza Humanitarian Foundation The four GHF hubs are located inside Israeli-controlled zones from which civilians were previously ordered to evacuate. They are connected to non-militarised zones via pathways that begin up to 4km away, and can only be accessed on foot. The satellite images below show crowds forming at checkpoints. Inside the centre, boxes of basic food supplies—such as flour, pasta and cooking oil—are laid out in a courtyard. Since May the GHF says it has handed out more than 91m meals, which works out to less than one a day per person. SDS2 aid distribution site SDS3 aid distribution site Boxes of aid in the courtyard area People in the courtyard area Source: PlanetLabs, July 28th 2025 Order often breaks down. On July 15th, during a visit to an Israeli observation post, The Economist witnessed a crowd force its way into a GHF centre after guards allowed a group of women to join the front of a queue. Tear-gas was fired, guards stopped handing out boxes and the centre was closed (the GHF denies using tear-gas). Evidence of the disorder can also be seen from space. Satellite images from July 18th show one aid site north of Rafah overwhelmed with hundreds of people. Several were reportedly killed by gunfire from the Israel Defence Force (IDF), says ACLED. The GHF denies any such incident on that day. Data from ACLED show that since May 26th most deaths linked to aid have been caused by Israeli gunfire near GHF centres. The IDF says it fires at crowds only when they pose a threat. It disputes the casualty figures from the Hamas-run health ministry that ACLED uses. Deaths are also caused by crushes. On July 16th at least 20 people were killed in a stampede at a GHF centre. The GHF blamed gunmen linked to Hamas for sparking the panic. The killings and the humanitarian disaster in Gaza have caused alarm overseas. More than 240 charities and NGOs have called for the GHF to be shut down. On July 21st 25 governments, including Britain and France, accused Israel of 'drip-feeding' aid and called on it to abide by its obligations under humanitarian law. Following Israel's announcement that it will pause fighting in parts of the strip to allow in more aid, the GHF system will be supplemented by air-drops and additional supplies from the UN and other agencies. It is too early to tell how much that will ease the crisis.
eNCA
25-07-2025
- Politics
- eNCA
African armies turn to drones with devastating civilian impact
The Easter period usually offers a rare respite in Gedeb, in Ethiopia's deeply troubled north, but on April 17 death rained from the skies in this sleepy town caught up in a war between rebels and the army. On this important holiday for Ethiopian Orthodox and Protestant Christians, many families had gathered in the morning to repair the local primary school. But out of the blue, shortly before 11:00 am, "a drone fired on the crowd and pulverised many people right in front of my eyes", a resident told AFP. Ethiopia and many other African nations are increasingly turning to drones as a low-cost means of waging war, often with mixed military results but devastating consequences for civilian populations. Last year, Ethiopia carried out a total of 54 drone strikes, compared to 62 attacks in Mali, 82 in Burkina Faso and 266 in Sudan, according to data collected by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), a US-based monitor. According to one of two Gedeb residents contacted by AFP, the strike killed "at least" 50 people, and according to the second, more than 100 -- a figure corroborated by several local media outlets. It is one of the deadliest in a series of drone attacks since the conflict began in August 2023, pitting the Ethiopian army against the Fano, the traditional "self-defence" militias of the Amhara ethnic group. A shoe seller at the scene, whose nephew was killed instantly, also blamed an armed drone that continued to "hover in the air" some 20 minutes after the strike. "The sight was horrific: there were heads, torsos and limbs flying everywhere and seriously injured people screaming in pain," he recalled. Ethiopian authorities have not released any information about this attack in Amhara, where the security situation makes some areas very difficult to access and communications are subject to significant restrictions. The Ethiopian army's use of drones, which began during the bloody Tigray War (2020-2022), has since spread to the Amhara and Oromia regions amid multiple insurgencies. In the Amhara region alone, now the hardest-hit, at least 669 people have been killed in more than 70 drone strikes since 2023, according to ACLED data analysed by AFP. - Low-cost - Remotely piloted aircraft used for reconnaissance and strikes -- low-cost technologies now ubiquitous in current conflicts and particularly in Ukraine -- are generating massive interest in Africa. Some 30 African governments have acquired drones, according to data cross-referenced by AFP from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) "Military Balance" and the Center for a New American Security's Drone Proliferation Dataset. For decades, wars in Africa had been fought on land, conducted primarily by light and mobile infantry units. "Drones offer sub-Saharan African militaries more affordable and flexible access to air power, which has been out of reach until now due to its cost and operational complexity," said Djenabou Cisse, a west African security specialist at the Foundation for Strategic Research. Countries like China, Turkey and Iran have the advantage of selling drones "without attaching any political conditionality related to respect for human rights", she added. Among African military commands, the most popular is undoubtedly the Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drone, which, along with its big brother, the Akinci, has dethroned the Chinese Wing Loong in recent years. The TB2 made a notable appearance in 2019 in Libya, the first African theatre of drone warfare, between the Ankara-backed Government of National Accord and its eastern rival, Marshal Haftar, equipped with Chinese weapons supplied by the United Arab Emirates. The following year, its deployment in the Karabakh region during the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and then in Ukraine starting in 2022, boosted its popularity. AFP/File | Adem ALTAN Orders soared and waiting lists grew. While contract details are kept secret, experts consulted by AFP estimate that a "system" of three drones costs nearly $6 million -- significantly less than the several tens of millions for a fighter jet or combat helicopter. This offsets its rather average performance, with a range limited to 150 kilometres. The TB2 is produced by private company Baykar, headed by the son-in-law of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. It "is now an integral part of Turkey's foreign policy, whose strategy is to export its military products worldwide," said Batu Coskun, a researcher at the Sediq Institute in Tripoli. The growing footprint of Turkish drones in Africa is partly due to the fact that unlike the West, Ankara is free from the cumbersome export control procedures for military equipment. "It's essentially at the president's discretion," he said. - Turkish military cooperation - After severing ties with former colonial ruler France, the military regimes of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have turned to Turkish drones to attack jihadist fighters as well as separatists. In December last year, the Malian army eliminated a leader and several members of the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), a pro-independence coalition, in a drone attack. In November 2023, drones played a decisive role in the recapture of the northern Malian city of Kidal from predominantly Tuareg rebels. A senior Malian officer praised the "discretion" of Turkish military cooperation. "When you pay for military equipment in the West, it has to go through political agreements, negotiations," he said, speaking on condition of anonymity. "With Turkey, we have a speed that we don't have elsewhere, not even in Russia or China," two countries that also supply military equipment, he added. According to a young Malian surveillance drone pilot, who also wished to remain anonymous, the Turkish aircraft "are easy to pilot, which means we don't need a long training period". In Chad, four Turkish drones have replaced French fighter jets at the forward bases they occupied until N'Djamena ended its military cooperation agreements with France at the end of 2024. The latter had repeatedly provided air support to help the Chadian government halt the advance of rebels threatening the capital. AFP/File | STRINGER The capital N'Djamena is equipped with only five Russian Sukhoi aircraft and as many ageing Mi-24 helicopters. Contrary to Franco-Chadian relations, "there is no military cooperation agreement (between N'Djamena and Ankara) but a trade agreement that allows us to acquire military equipment", a Chadian officer told AFP. Turks are present to provide technical assistance and the former French bases are "entirely in the hands of the Chadian military", the same source added. This flexible cooperation on drones clearly illustrates the desire of some African leaders to "assert their sovereignty and greater strategic autonomy". said researcher Djenabou Cisse. - 'Extreme fear' - On the ground, however, the tactical and strategic gains from the use of drones do not always materialise, several experts said. "Drones alone cannot defeat an adversary," Cisse said, adding: "We saw this in Libya, where both sides had sophisticated drones, and more recently in Sudan, where each side uses drones, but with very unequal capabilities." Planet Labs PBC/AFP | - "Not only have these countries failed to fully stabilise but conflicts have often become entrenched or even escalated," the researcher added. Drones are proving especially decisive in open terrain, when the enemy is unable to disperse and hide as is the case with jihadists in the Sahel, according to a detailed study by the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP). In Ethiopia, they helped turn the tide of the conflict in Tigray at a key moment, giving a decisive advantage to federal forces without, however, securing a definitive victory. In the summer of 2021, a large column of Tigray rebel forces, which reached within 200 kilometres of Addis Ababa and threatened to seize the capital, was stopped by the arsenal of drones deployed by the government. Analysis of satellite images by Dutch peace organisation PAX at several Ethiopian air bases confirmed the presence of TB2s and, more recently, the Akinci, as well as Chinese Wing Loongs and Iranian Mohajer-6s. These drones have "significantly increased the Ethiopian army's intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities, as they can prowl for nearly 24 hours, track enemy movements, identify their positions, provide targeting information or directly strike targets," Wim Zwijnenburg, a drone specialist for PAX, told AFP. While the fighting subsequently focused primarily on Tigray, it continued into 2022 and high tensions remain in the region despite the conclusion of a fragile peace agreement, while other hotbeds of violent insurrection have spread to Amhara and Oromia. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, winner of the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize for his peace efforts with neighbouring Eritrea, is now regularly accused of indiscriminate abuses against the population. "The drones continued to target civilians despite the presence of sophisticated sensor systems, high-definition cameras and night vision," supposedly allowing for better threat identification, said Zwijnenburg, deploring "a lack of operator training or, in the worst case, a deliberate decision". In Gedeb, the small Amhara town targeted during Passover, residents contacted by AFP said there had been no fighting in the area in the run-up to the attack. They live in constant fear now. "We are ready to flee to the bush at any moment in the event of a sudden drone strike," said one of them. "We live in extreme fear."
