Latest news with #AEC
Sydney Morning Herald
3 hours ago
- Politics
- Sydney Morning Herald
Could there be a second election in the nail-biter seat of Bradfield?
Australian elections often throw up ultra-tight contests. But this year's battle for the seat of Bradfield on Sydney's north shore has been a roller coaster ride from the start. More than four weeks after election day, only a few votes separated Liberal hopeful Gisele Kapterian and teal independent Nicolette Boele. A recount is ongoing, but even that may not end in a candidate emerging victorious. There is a growing consensus that Bradfield could be headed back to the polls for a byelection. How did we get here? On election night it appeared Boele, who almost seized Bradfield in 2022, had won the seat on her second attempt, although she stopped short of claiming victory. Late that night, Boele led by almost 700 votes and many news outlets, including the ABC, called the electorate for her. As counting progressed, Boele's lead evaporated. A week after polling day, it seemed Kapterian had built an insurmountable advantage; several media organisations called the seat for the Liberals on May 12. But then Kapterian's buffer was whittled away and the lead changed again. When the initial count concluded, Kapterian was up by just eight votes and the Australian Electoral Commission ordered a recount. (It is AEC policy to do this if the final margin in a seat is fewer than 100 votes.) After more than a week of recounting, the result is still up in the air. At 2.30pm on Monday, live results published on the AEC's website showed Boele ahead by 20 votes, although the commission says this online tally 'is just a point in time figure and shouldn't be taken as instructive about the final result'. The full recount is expected to finish 'late this week'. What happens if the recount ends in a tie? Acting electoral commissioner Jeff Pope has said that in the event of a tie in Bradfield, the AEC would refer the result to the Court of Disputed Returns, which could order a byelection. Whatever happens in the count, Kapterian or Boele or any voter enrolled in Bradfield could petition the Court of Disputed Returns to overturn the result. Electoral analyst Ben Raue, who publishes the Tally Room website, believes a legal challenge to the result in Bradfield is 'pretty likely at this point' given the tiny margin. Raue believes a new election to decide Bradfield would be justified should the two-candidate preferred gap between Kapterian and Boele remain as close as it was in the initial count. 'I think there is a point where you get to where an election is so close that you can't actually be sure who has won,' he said. Electoral analyst and editor of the Poll Bludger website, William Bowe says trends in the recount so far suggest Boele will end up with a narrow lead once the recount is finished. He estimates the recount has cut a total of 82 votes from Kapterian's tally, after preferences, compared with 62 taken from Boele's total by late on Saturday. This has been due to recounted votes having been deemed to be informal. Loading But Bowe also expects the courts will be called on to adjudicate given the wafer-thin margin. 'I wouldn't blame either candidate for challenging it,' he said. 'Why wouldn't you roll the dice again?' Until recently, Bradfield had been considered a blue ribbon Liberal stronghold; Bowe says that makes a challenge from the party likely should Kapterian fall short. 'The Liberal Party will not want to lose that seat because they'll be worried they'd never get it back again,' he said. Bowe believes 'there's a very big chance that the margin will be so small that the court will say there has to be a fresh election'. What is the Court of Disputed Returns? The High Court sits as the Court of Disputed Returns, which has the power, under the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918, to rule on the validity of federal elections. According to constitutional law expert Professor Anne Twomey, the court 'has very limited powers in relation to elections'. It can declare that candidates who were returned as elected were not elected. It can declare that other candidates were duly elected. The court can also declare an election to be absolutely void. A petition is a formal legal document asking the court to investigate the election, conduct inquiries and potentially overturn the result. It must be lodged within 40 days of the writs being returned. In the case of this election, the writs must be returned by July 9. This technically means if a candidate is declared the winner by the AEC, they could take their seat in federal parliament while the court considers the petition, although it would be a bold and unlikely move. (That said, Kapterian has already voted in the Liberal Party leadership ballot and Liberal leader Sussan Ley has given her a shadow ministry position.) Twomey says the petition must be able to point to evidence of irregularities in the election, such as the electoral commissioner wrongly ruling votes formal or informal, or proof that people voted twice. Bowe says it is common for a handful of voters to cast two ballots in each federal electorate. Has the court ordered a byelection in other tight races? The closest election victory in history was in the 1919 race for the Victorian seat of Ballarat (then spelt Ballaarat), in which Nationalist candidate Edwin Kerby finished just one vote ahead of Labor's Charles McGrath. McGrath challenged the result over electoral irregularities in the Court of Disputed Returns, which ordered a byelection. Loading McGrath won the rematch with a swing of 6.1 per cent. The court has also declared other election battles void, including Western Australia's half-Senate election in 2013, when on the initial counts, the final two seats would have gone to the Palmer United Party and Labor but on the recount, they went to the Australian Sports Party and the Greens. In a major twist, it was discovered that about 1370 ballots had gone missing, so the recount could not be properly completed. The electoral commission chief petitioned the Court of Disputed Returns to declare the election void. What would a byelection in Bradfield look like? If the battle for Bradfield ends with the election being declared void, voters in the seat will need to go back to the ballot box for a byelection. That byelection does not need to replicate the initial poll, which means it could be a two-horse race (Kapterian v Boele) if other candidates or parties do not want to run again. It is likely that Labor, which finished third in Bradfield with 22,777 votes, would not run again.
The Age
3 hours ago
- Politics
- The Age
Could there be a second election in the nail-biter seat of Bradfield?
Australian elections often throw up ultra-tight contests. But this year's battle for the seat of Bradfield on Sydney's north shore has been a roller coaster ride from the start. More than four weeks after election day, only a few votes separated Liberal hopeful Gisele Kapterian and teal independent Nicolette Boele. A recount is ongoing, but even that may not end in a candidate emerging victorious. There is a growing consensus that Bradfield could be headed back to the polls for a byelection. How did we get here? On election night it appeared Boele, who almost seized Bradfield in 2022, had won the seat on her second attempt, although she stopped short of claiming victory. Late that night, Boele led by almost 700 votes and many news outlets, including the ABC, called the electorate for her. As counting progressed, Boele's lead evaporated. A week after polling day, it seemed Kapterian had built an insurmountable advantage; several media organisations called the seat for the Liberals on May 12. But then Kapterian's buffer was whittled away and the lead changed again. When the initial count concluded, Kapterian was up by just eight votes and the Australian Electoral Commission ordered a recount. (It is AEC policy to do this if the final margin in a seat is fewer than 100 votes.) After more than a week of recounting, the result is still up in the air. At 2.30pm on Monday, live results published on the AEC's website showed Boele ahead by 20 votes, although the commission says this online tally 'is just a point in time figure and shouldn't be taken as instructive about the final result'. The full recount is expected to finish 'late this week'. What happens if the recount ends in a tie? Acting electoral commissioner Jeff Pope has said that in the event of a tie in Bradfield, the AEC would refer the result to the Court of Disputed Returns, which could order a byelection. Whatever happens in the count, Kapterian or Boele or any voter enrolled in Bradfield could petition the Court of Disputed Returns to overturn the result. Electoral analyst Ben Raue, who publishes the Tally Room website, believes a legal challenge to the result in Bradfield is 'pretty likely at this point' given the tiny margin. Raue believes a new election to decide Bradfield would be justified should the two-candidate preferred gap between Kapterian and Boele remain as close as it was in the initial count. 'I think there is a point where you get to where an election is so close that you can't actually be sure who has won,' he said. Electoral analyst and editor of the Poll Bludger website, William Bowe says trends in the recount so far suggest Boele will end up with a narrow lead once the recount is finished. He estimates the recount has cut a total of 82 votes from Kapterian's tally, after preferences, compared with 62 taken from Boele's total by late on Saturday. This has been due to recounted votes having been deemed to be informal. Loading But Bowe also expects the courts will be called on to adjudicate given the wafer-thin margin. 'I wouldn't blame either candidate for challenging it,' he said. 'Why wouldn't you roll the dice again?' Until recently, Bradfield had been considered a blue ribbon Liberal stronghold; Bowe says that makes a challenge from the party likely should Kapterian fall short. 'The Liberal Party will not want to lose that seat because they'll be worried they'd never get it back again,' he said. Bowe believes 'there's a very big chance that the margin will be so small that the court will say there has to be a fresh election'. What is the Court of Disputed Returns? The High Court sits as the Court of Disputed Returns, which has the power, under the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918, to rule on the validity of federal elections. According to constitutional law expert Professor Anne Twomey, the court 'has very limited powers in relation to elections'. It can declare that candidates who were returned as elected were not elected. It can declare that other candidates were duly elected. The court can also declare an election to be absolutely void. A petition is a formal legal document asking the court to investigate the election, conduct inquiries and potentially overturn the result. It must be lodged within 40 days of the writs being returned. In the case of this election, the writs must be returned by July 9. This technically means if a candidate is declared the winner by the AEC, they could take their seat in federal parliament while the court considers the petition, although it would be a bold and unlikely move. (That said, Kapterian has already voted in the Liberal Party leadership ballot and Liberal leader Sussan Ley has given her a shadow ministry position.) Twomey says the petition must be able to point to evidence of irregularities in the election, such as the electoral commissioner wrongly ruling votes formal or informal, or proof that people voted twice. Bowe says it is common for a handful of voters to cast two ballots in each federal electorate. Has the court ordered a byelection in other tight races? The closest election victory in history was in the 1919 race for the Victorian seat of Ballarat (then spelt Ballaarat), in which Nationalist candidate Edwin Kerby finished just one vote ahead of Labor's Charles McGrath. McGrath challenged the result over electoral irregularities in the Court of Disputed Returns, which ordered a byelection. Loading McGrath won the rematch with a swing of 6.1 per cent. The court has also declared other election battles void, including Western Australia's half-Senate election in 2013, when on the initial counts, the final two seats would have gone to the Palmer United Party and Labor but on the recount, they went to the Australian Sports Party and the Greens. In a major twist, it was discovered that about 1370 ballots had gone missing, so the recount could not be properly completed. The electoral commission chief petitioned the Court of Disputed Returns to declare the election void. What would a byelection in Bradfield look like? If the battle for Bradfield ends with the election being declared void, voters in the seat will need to go back to the ballot box for a byelection. That byelection does not need to replicate the initial poll, which means it could be a two-horse race (Kapterian v Boele) if other candidates or parties do not want to run again. It is likely that Labor, which finished third in Bradfield with 22,777 votes, would not run again.
The Guardian
5 hours ago
- General
- The Guardian
In Bradfield, the election is not yet over. What happens when a seat count is ultra close?
Election day was over four weeks ago. Yet the outcome in one House of Representatives seat remains unclear. That is the formerly Liberal Sydney electorate of Bradfield. In real time, you can watch the lead tilt between Liberal hopeful, Gisele Kapterian and her teal independent rival, Nicolette Boele. The difference between them has been as small as one vote. As of Monday, that had shifted to 15 votes in the teal's favour. Still too close even for Antony Green to call. What are the processes for resolving ultra-marginal results? And, more broadly, what accountability is there for problems in campaigning or the running of the election, such as the allegation that voters in one New South Wales town were misled about how to vote? First, to the Bradfield saga. The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) has until 9 July to declare the result. It then certifies a list of successful candidates, which it 'returns', attached to the original writ the governor general used to formally begin the election. Within 40 days of the writ being returned, any candidate or elector from the seat can 'petition' its result. That's not a petition calling for parliament to handle the matter. It means a formal pleading to the court of disputed returns. For national elections, that means the high court. Remarkably few seats are challenged in Australia. On the happy side, this is because our election agencies are very professional. It's also a matter of legal principle, arithmetic and resources. To succeed in a challenge, you must show the outcome was likely to have been affected, by errors or breaches of the Electoral Act. With more than 100,000 voting in House of Representatives electorates, even a 0.5% margin means convincing a judge that a 500-vote lead was uncertain. The last successful petition nationally was 12 years ago. The AEC admitted some lost ballots meant that the last couple of Western Australian Senate seats could have been different. The whole race had to be re-run. In Bradfield, there's no suggestion of impropriety. So it's not like the last unsuccessful petition, from 2019, where the Liberals survived claims that misleading how-to-vote posters, directed at Chinese language speakers, might have affected the result. Instead, the Bradfield loser would focus on disputed ballots. That would mean, for example, votes where their scrutineers noted some uncertainty. Such as whether a '1' was a '7'. A judge can then give a binding ruling on the intent of the ballot. The loser might also try to find evidence of people being wrongly denied a ballot or wrongly issued one. The 40-day period to marshal evidence is strict. Besides time limits, a challenger needs lawyers and risks paying the other side's (and perhaps the AEC's) legal costs if they lose the hearing. Australian election counts are very thorough. This is in contrast to the United Kingdom, where local officials literally rush to be the first to declare, in the wee hours of Friday morning after voting closes at 10pm on a Thursday. The figures we see on election night are 'indicative' only, drawing on counts in thousands of polling places. Every ballot is transferred to a more central location, for official tallying. Ballots for weaker candidates are reviewed multiple times, as they pass on according to each elector's preferences. When a seat is ultra-close, the law permits a complete recount. AEC policy is to conduct one whenever the result is within 100 votes: in Bradfield, the initial result was a mere eight votes. A losing candidate can also request a recount. Teal independent Zoe Daniel did that in her Melbourne seat of Goldstein, where Liberal Tim Wilson finished 260 votes ahead. Recounts are resource intensive. So the AEC agreed to review all '1' votes for those candidates, and ballots put in the 'informal' or invalid pile. Wilson finally won by 175 votes. A challenge to a margin of that size seems very unlikely. What of votes that couldn't be counted? We call these 'informal'. Given turning-out to vote is compulsory – and the requirement to give preferences – Australia has long had a lot of informal ballots. Upwards of half tend to be accidental, caused by people misnumbering the ballot or not understanding the rules. The highest rates are in seats with many new citizens from overseas, especially as long ballots of many of candidates is becoming common. Maybe more than half, however, are deliberate, intended as protests against the system or parties. These include blanks and those scribbled with (sometimes obscene) comments. As faith in parties has declined, informals have risen. Also, due to 'automatic enrolment', more people are enrolled than ever, including some who'd rather not be. Informal ballots this year reached 5.6% of turnout. For perspective, that's up just 0.4%. Voters in the small town of Missabotti in the NSW seat of Cowper, however, were miffed to find their polling booth had a 45% informal rate. That's quite an outlier, even for a seat where electors had to rank a dizzying 11 candidates. There are allegations a polling official misled some electors, by telling them they only had to number '6' candidates for the House. That is the rule for the Senate, not the House. As preferences are not mandatory at NSW state elections, it's understandable voters may have heeded such advice rather than the actual rule on the ballot. Such an error would be embarrassing for the AEC. But it could hardly be grounds for an election challenge: the Nationals held Cowper by almost 5,500 votes. Does that mean there's no accountability? Anyone affected does not get to vote again. But the AEC is investigating. And after every election, it is grilled by a parliamentary inquiry that the public can contribute to. In the end, every vote should be sacred. In reality, elections are huge logistical events and nothing is perfect. But there are courts and inquiries to offer remedies and improve things for the future. Graeme Orr is a professor of law at the University of Queensland. This article was first published in the Conversation.
Indian Express
a day ago
- General
- Indian Express
How the NDA offers women a path to become service chief in the future
There were 17 women cadets in the 148th batch of the National Defence Academy (NDA) which graduated from the prestigious tri-services institute in Khadakwasla on Friday. This is a watershed moment for the armed forces, one which opens a realistic path for women to reach the highest echelons of the Indian military in the coming decades. Here's a look at the journey so far, and the significance of Friday's milestone. In 1888, the British established the Military Nursing Service, officially opening up the military for women in India. In 1958, the Indian Army Medical Corps began granting regular commissions to women doctors. But non-medical roles remained off limits till 1992, when the Women Special Entry Scheme (WSES) was introduced to induct women in select non-combat streams — such as the Army Education Corps (AEC), Corps of Signals, Intelligence Corps, and Corps of Engineers — as Short Service Commission (SSC) officers. Permanent Commission (PC) remained out of reach for women until 2008, when women SSC officers in the Judge Advocate General department and the AEC became eligible. The government allowed women PC officers into eight other non-combat streams in 2019, but precluded them from being offered command appointments. The fight for PC and just terms of service had reached the courts in the 2000s. The Supreme Court delivered a landmark verdict on the matter in 2020, ruling that women officers were eligible for PC and command roles across ten streams, and could not be denied 'based on sex stereotypes… which discriminate against women'. In 2021, the apex court ordered the NDA to admit its first batch of women cadets. The court was hearing a plea seeking directions to allow eligible women to appear in the NDA and Naval Academy entrance examinations conducted by the Union Public Service Commission. The 17 women who graduated on Friday were admitted to the premier defence academy a year later. Integration into squadrons The NDA has admitted 126 women cadets till date, upto the academy's 153rd batch. When admitting its first women cadets in 2022, the NDA had said that training will be conducted in 'an absolutely gender-neutral manner' with 'minimum changes to the existing curriculum'. Most training activities are conducted jointly — along with male cadets — keeping the cadets' employability in mind, specifically the fact that women officers would be required to take up command roles in the future, the NDA says. The academy has a dedicated support staff for training women cadets. For its first women cadets, the NDA borrowed from training methodologies and regimens already in place in other Pre-Commissioning Training Academies such as the Officers Training Academy Chennai, Indian Naval Academy Ezhimala, and the Air Force Academy Dundigal. Women SSC officers have been graduating from these academies since 1992. Women cadets were initially provided separate accommodation on the NDA campus. But they have since been integrated into the existing 18 squadrons of the academy. This milestone was achieved earlier this year, during the sixth and final term of the first batch to include women. The NDA's 18 squadrons are the foundational units of the academy's organisation, effectively acting as cadets' families during their time in the academy. The integration of women cadets into the squadrons means that they live and train like any of their male counterparts, going through the entire daily routine together. On Friday, the women cadets marched shoulder to shoulder with the men, wearing the same uniforms, and completely indistinguishable from their male counterparts to the average watcher. A momentous occasion In October 2021, after the Supreme Court had ordered the NDA to admit women, then Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Manoj Mukund Naravane had said: 'I think 30 to 40 years down the line, a woman could be standing where I am standing.' The very same thoughts were echoed by former COAS and current Mizoram Governor Gen V K Singh (Retd), who was the Reviewing Officer for the passing out parade of the NDA's 148th batch on Friday. 'I envision a future not far from now when one of these young women may rise to the highest echelons of the service they go to,' he said. This is what makes Friday's milestone such a momentous one in the history of the Indian armed forces. Previously, women joined the military via SSC or direct entry routes into select branches. Neither did they have the opportunity to take up command roles, nor a viable long-term path to rise up the ranks of the armed forces. The NDA offers the early career training, leadership grooming, and exposure that only male officers had access to till now, which in turn opens the door for women officers to have a stable, permanent career in the military. A woman cadet graduating from the NDA can start young, and potentially build a 35- to 40-year-long career that is essentially a prerequisite to becoming a service chief. Command roles, especially in combat arms like infantry, artillery, navy warships, or fighter squadrons, are also crucial for career advancement. Women cadets graduating from the NDA for the very first time will have the opportunity to reach these positions. 'The recent developments are certainly encouraging,' a retired Indian Air Force (IAF) Air Marshal told The Indian Express. 'However a deeper cultural shift within the armed forces is necessary. A change that would normalise having women in leadership [positions],' he said. Some streams remain out of bounds for women, meaning conscious decisions will have to be taken to change that situation, the retired IAF officer added. 'Armed forces will also have to take further efforts on work-life infrastructure and mechanisms for maternity policy, childcare support, spousal postings. The criteria for promotion boards and evaluation, command postings will need upgrades,' he said. Sushant Kulkarni is a Special Correspondent with The Indian Express in Pune with 12+ years of experience covering issues related to Crime, Defence, Internal Security and Courts. He has been associated with the Indian Express since July 2010. Sushant has extensively reported on law and order issues of Pune and surrounding area, Cyber crime, narcotics trade and terrorism. His coverage in the Defence beat includes operational aspects of the three services, the defence research and development and issues related to key defence establishments. He has covered several sensitive cases in the courts at Pune. Sushant is an avid photographer, plays harmonica and loves cooking. ... Read More
The Guardian
2 days ago
- General
- The Guardian
Tim Wilson takes back Victorian seat of Goldstein from Zoe Daniel by 175 votes, recount confirms
The independent politician Zoe Daniel has conceded the Victorian seat of Goldstein after a partial recount confirmed the Liberal party's Tim Wilson as finishing 175 votes ahead. Wilson was installed as the shadow employment minister earlier this week and had been 260 votes ahead before a partial recount was finalised by the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) on Saturday afternoon. Daniel, a former ABC journalist, said in a social media post she had called Wilson to concede but hinted she could be back for another run at the next election. 'Today we did not win. But we are not defeated. Hard things are hard, and a better kind of politics is worth fighting for. See you in 2028? Maybe!' she wrote on X. Sign up for Guardian Australia's breaking news email The AEC said Wilson had finished 175 votes ahead with the change in margin down to determinations on informal votes and a correction to a data entry error. Wilson wrote on X that now the recount was finished 'it is time to get on with the job and take the voice and values of Goldstein to shape the future of Australia: and that's precisely what I will do every day in service'. He thanked his supporters and said in a tight race some had gone to extraordinary efforts to vote, including one person who 'crossed Indonesia's archipelago to vote at our embassy in Jakarta' and another who travelled from southern Israel to vote in Tel Aviv. 'Some reorganised entire itineraries to walk into an embassy or be at a hotel to return a postal vote,' he said. Daniel, who defeated Wilson in the seat in the 2022 election, requested the recount last week 'in light of the very tight margin and several errors being picked up in the portion of the count that was included in the distribution of preferences,' she said at the time. In a social media video conceding the seat, Daniel said Goldstein was now 'about as marginal as it gets' – which would mean increased accountability for Wilson. Sign up to Breaking News Australia Get the most important news as it breaks after newsletter promotion 'Community politics created that,' she said. 'We have come so very close to a second victory.' In a message directed to young people, Daniel said: 'Changing systems of power is hard. Two steps forward is sometimes followed by one back. 'It's a resilience test and it's a reason to get back up and keep fighting, not a reason to give up. Today we did not win, but today we fought, we worked and we acted for the future of this nation. Be proud of yourselves, as I am of you and us.' The AEC said in a statement the partial recount had been a 'methodical and highly transparent process' and that a formal declaration of the poll for Goldstein would be made soon.
