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Vox
2 days ago
- Business
- Vox
Can pop music actually predict a recession?
is the host of Explain It to Me, your hotline for all your unanswered questions. She joined Vox in 2022 as a senior producer and then as host of The Weeds, Vox's policy podcast. But how do we really know if there's an impending economic contraction? 'There's a super wide variety of what qualifies as a so-called 'recession indicator' on the internet,' Wall Street Journal markets reporter Hannah Erin Lang told me in the latest episode of Explain It to Me, Vox's weekly call-in podcast. 'Economists and investors are often looking at these offbeat sources of data or offbeat trends. Former Federal Reserve chair Alan Greenspan famously looked at sales of men's underwear with the idea being that if you have to cut back, this might be a place where nobody else is going to know but yourself.' There's another alleged recession indicator taking the internet by storm: music. People are now referring to the late-aughts and early 2010s dance hits as 'recession pop.' But is there any credence to this supposed harbinger of economic downturn? That's the question posed to Switched on Pop cohost Charlie Harding on this week's episode of Explain It to Me. Below is an excerpt of our conversation, edited for length and clarity. You can listen to the full episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get podcasts. If you'd like to submit a question, send an email to askvox@ or call 1-800-618-8545. Does music change with the economic outlook? We're all looking for a crystal ball, and music feels like it's got to be it because that's where we go to get into our feelings. So are our playlists indicating larger economic trends? I don't think so. That's interesting because lately there's been all this talk of recession pop. What is recession pop referring to? Recession pop is a made-up, after-the-fact genre, referring to upbeat, bubblegum pop music from the time of the Great Recession. We're talking about Black Eyed Peas, Lady Gaga, Kesha. I think that Katy Perry's whole oeuvre represents that era better than any other. We're talking about songs like 'Teenage Dream,' a song which has this ongoing chord progression that never resolves, that makes you have the feeling of the teenage life that will just never end, you're never going to grow up, and it has this wonderful nostalgic quality to it. Or 'Last Friday Night': the party that is the rager that you're gonna go all-out in. Those songs had a light, effervescent, post-disco, very poppy programmed music kind of vibe. I want to go back in time to the time of bolero jackets and statement belts... You do? Well, okay, not literally. But we're going to go on this journey. What was the sound of that time? It has to sound a little over-polished, really well-made, programmed music. Meaning drum machines, synthesizers, guitars in the line of like Nile Rodgers from Chic — but not nearly as well done — sort of funk-style, disco-style guitars. You might have some really cheesy programmed strings in the background. Then the lyrics have to be either 'Party, party all night forever!' or larger platitudes about being a girlboss. What else was going on in music during that time? Other than these fun, poppy, 'we're going to party all night long' songs. Music had been going through a recession for half a decade at that point. Ever since the turn of the millennium and Napster, the illegal downloading market basically had eviscerated the music industry. It saw its revenues cut in half. Business was in freefall, to the degree that they thought that their future was in downloadable ringtones. Indie music was really big as the mainstream labels were struggling to figure out how to make sales. Hip-hop was going through a bling and party era. There was a lot of upbeat music during these uncertain times, that's certainly true, [but] I think it's important to note as well that during the Great Recession there was plenty of music which didn't reflect an upbeat attitude. One of the biggest songs of 2007 was 'What Goes Around Comes Around' by Justin Timberlake. [There's also] 'Umbrella' by Rihanna. I don't think of those as upbeat, happy songs. If you have to protect yourself from the rain under an umbrella, this is more acknowledging our deep upset at the national condition. I think that even in the recession pop era, there's music of all kinds: upbeat, downbeat, sad, happy. And so I actually think that the genre is a very slippery one that represents a lot of different kinds of music. Are we hearing that sound pop up now? Some people have said that Chappell Roan and Charli XCX are digging into the recession era in their new music. I'm a little more skeptical. If recession pop were doing really well right now, Katy Perry's 'Woman's World' would have been a huge hit, and it has been a real stinker for her. Why are we talking about recession pop right now? Everyone's looking for vibes of what's going on in the larger economy, but I think more largely, millennials are aging out of being cool. Oh, no. You stop listening to new music usually between 25 and 30 years old. And then when you get into a position of power where you become a curator of culture, now it's your time to assert: The thing that was good when I was young is still good. So this could be less about the economy and more about like those of us born in the '80s and early '90s kind of having a midlife crisis. Absolutely, I think there was a huge cultural midlife crisis and a claiming of power. I've seen tons of bars and clubs during these recession pop dance parties and I'm hearing like all these samples in music from current artists from that era. How do you explain all this? Recession pop is very much a real thing and it's completely made-up. There was no such thing as recession pop during the recession. It's a term that was made up only very recently.
The Guardian
04-06-2025
- Business
- The Guardian
Are we heading for a recession? Show me your nails
Is there going to be a recession this year? Economists have been umm-ing and ahh-ing and crunching the numbers, but the answer could be at the tip of your fingers. According to various expert sources (influencers on TikTok), a wobbly economy means people are ditching elaborate and expensive manicures for more understated styles. Cue numerous headlines about 'recession nails'. When I first saw these headlines, I felt pretty smug. An inadvertent trendsetter, I have been rocking recession nails for the past decade now. Except I have been calling them 'freelance lesbian nails'. Or, alternatively, 'harried parent nails'. Then I read past the headlines and was no longer quite so smug. Turns out that the trend doesn't mean frantically cutting your nails with a cheap clipper while yelling 'BE THERE IN A MINUTE!' to your four-year-old who has discovered that there is leftover cake in the freezer. It means, from what I can gather, a neutral pink shade on manicured squoval (square-oval) nails that aren't super-long but are still very polished. Can nail trends really serve as an economic indicator? Possibly. After all, we all know about the 'lipstick effect': the idea that people will splurge on affordable luxuries when times get tough. There's also the 'men's underwear index', espoused by economists such as the former Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan. This is the idea that you can tell a recession is real when men forgo new undies. Divorce rates and hemline lengths have also been previously cited as recession indicators. Still, while certain pockets of discretionary spending may provide insights into the economy, some experts think we shouldn't get too carried away by recession nails. The economist Christopher Clarke recently told the HuffPo: 'Things go in and out of style, and that has nothing to do with the economy, it just has to do with the seasonality of human preferences.' Clarke added that key recession indicators are not manicures, but a rise in the overall unemployment rate and investments going down. OK, Clarke, thank you for your input, but all that sounds a little bit too much like common sense to me. You can't go viral on the internet by saying: 'Look at unemployment charts and job-finding rates to figure out if we're in a downturn,' can you? Not in this economy. Arwa Mahdawi is a Guardian columnist
New York Times
19-05-2025
- Business
- New York Times
The Moody's Downgrade Is an Alarm. Washington Better Pay Attention.
It may be a cliché, but Ernest Hemingway's quip about going bankrupt 'gradually and then suddenly' feels very much on point if you look at America's spending and debt situation — deteriorating, with momentum building toward a crisis. The latest step along that path came Friday, when Moody's Ratings removed the final major Triple-A credit rating for the federal government. That means America's debt is officially no longer considered pristine by any of the main companies that rate it. Moody's cited successive bipartisan failures to reverse the growing U.S. budget deficit, which it estimated could increase to 9 percent of the gross domestic product within the coming decade, from the 6.4 percent it hit last year. It has previously reached those levels only during times of global crisis: World War II, the 2008 financial crisis and the Covid pandemic. It's easy to downplay these fears after decades of hand-wringing that have come to naught. In 1988 — 37 years ago — when U.S. federal debt was less than half what it is today, measured as a percentage of G.D.P., the Federal Reserve chairman, Alan Greenspan, warned of the country's fiscal situation. He said that 'the long run is rapidly turning into the short run.' He added that 'the effects of the deficit will be increasingly felt and with some immediacy.' It turned out that domestic and foreign investors were willing to buy ever-larger amounts of government debt to finance America's overspending. Investors even continued to buy debt after America's first credit downgrade, by what's now known as S&P Global Ratings, in 2011. The coming week seems unlikely to repeat such a rosy scenario. Dynamics today are changing in ways that finally make Mr. Greenspan's warnings urgent. Some investors are questioning how much exposure they want in U.S. financial assets. Politicians clinging to increasingly thin majorities in Congress are more willing to encourage voters with spending or tax cuts than they are to tackle the problem. The combination will lead to investors demanding higher interest rates to buy U.S. debt, which slows economic growth by raising borrowing costs for households and businesses. It also eats into the cash available for the government itself, worsening the underlying budget math. Wash, rinse, repeat. Politicians from both parties have tried to meet that challenge not directly, but by fussing with the arcane way Congress accounts for spending. Take a look at the budget legislation recently released by the House Ways and Means Committee. Several of the tax cuts would not last through the typical 10-year time frame, but instead would expire at the end of President Trump's term. They include a removal of taxes on tips and overtime pay, and increases in standard deductions and child tax credits. By making tax cuts temporary, the overall cost of the 10-year plan is reduced, which makes it easier to pass. It also puts the burden on the next administration and Congress to choose between extending the cuts, which would add further to the deficit, or letting them expire, which to most voters would feel like a tax increase — something most lawmakers would want to avoid. Voters don't have a strong grasp on how fiscal math works. In a recent poll by the Hoover Institution, a conservative think tank associated with Stanford University, 75 percent of respondents said they were concerned about the growing federal debt and thought Congress should tackle it. However, only 17 percent thought Social Security was the largest federal spending program (it is) and only 27 percent thought that extending Trump's 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act for another decade would push deficits higher (it would). This perception contrasts sharply with analysis from the Yale Budget Lab, a nonpartisan research center. It estimates that making the 2017 tax cuts permanent would push the bill's total cost to $5 trillion over the coming decade. As long as politicians and voters aren't on the same page about how to get the federal debt on a sustainable path, which increasingly points to Social Security reform and selective tax increases, both parties are likely to indulge in more and more fiscal accounting tricks. Anything described in Washington as temporary rarely turns out that way. So what would this do to America's fiscal outlook? The Yale Budget Lab, as a thought experiment, assumed that the temporary tax provisions under consideration becomes permanent. Even including some potential tariff revenue to help offset the lost tax revenue, the cost would be $2.5 trillion over the coming decade. At the end of 30 years, the size of America's debt would represent 180 percent of its G.D.P. The only countries with higher debt ratios today are Japan and Sudan. Moody's decision tells us that this fiscal path has costs. One is the willingness of investors to buy Treasury debt without getting a higher interest rate to reflect the growing fiscal risks. A report by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, a think tank that favors deficit reduction, showed that foreign ownership of publicly held U.S. debt had risen to about 30 percent of the total by the end of last year, from about 5 percent of the total in 1970. Some of those investors may be more motivated to trim their bond holdings now that the U.S. is no longer a Triple-A rated financial asset. A jump in interest rates for the U.S. 10-year Treasury was one reason Mr. Trump paused his reciprocal tariff plan. And they continue to have the administration's attention. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told lawmakers this month that 'the debt numbers are indeed scary,' and a crisis would involve 'a sudden stop in the economy as credit would disappear.' The growing debt burden risks making bond buyers nervous and thus America's debt more expensive to maintain. To put numbers to this spiraling scenario, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan nonprofit group focused on fiscal policy, estimates that a sustained 10-year Treasury interest rate of 4.4 percent, which is where it was Friday morning, would add an extra $1.8 trillion to the debt even beyond what's currently forecast for the coming decade. Sadly, it seems unlikely the Moody's rating downgrade will be the catalyst for Congress to change its current policy path. But lawmakers should know that the potential for America to shift from a gradual, albeit unsustainable path to a sudden financial crisis is surely increasing.
Mid East Info
08-05-2025
- Business
- Mid East Info
Beyond Expo 2025 Expands Global Influence With Groundbreaking Partnership With Asian Family Legacy Foundation And Greenwich Economic Forum
Strengthening Asia's Position in the Global Wealth and Investment Landscape BEYOND Expo, Asia's premier platform for technology and innovation, is proud to announce the BEYOND Wealth Summit 2025, co-hosted with the Asian Family Legacy Foundation (AFLF) and, for the first time, in partnership with Greenwich Economic Forum (GEF). This exclusive, invitation-only summit will take place on May 23-24, 2025, during BEYOND Expo 2025 (May 21-24) at The Venetian Macao Cotai Expo, bringing together 300+ global families, institutions, innovators, industry leaders and more. As the largest technology and innovation ecosystem expo in Asia, BEYOND Expo serves as a strategic bridge between Asia and the world, fostering dialogue among institutional investors, entrepreneurs, and BEYOND Wealth Summit, launched in 2024 as a collaboration between BEYOND Expo and the Asian Family Legacy Foundation (AFLF), has quickly become Asia's most exclusive platform for family offices, institutional investors, and financial leaders to exchange insights on multigenerational wealth, investment strategies, and the evolving global financial landscape. Building on its success, this year's edition marks a new milestone, expanding the event's international influence through a collaboration with Greenwich Economic Forum (GEF), one of the world's most influential conferences for the global private markets and alternative investment industry. GEF has welcomed some of the world's most influential LPs and family offices over the years, including Dalio Family Office and Philanthropies, Hong Kong Monetary Authority, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, Australian Retirement Trust, HESTA (Australia), Tamasek, TIAA, GE Pension, IBM Retirement Trust, Rockefeller Foundation, Blue Pool Capital, Cornerstone Group Family Office, Quilvest (France), Declaration Partners, Howard Family Office, and The Li Family Office. Alongside its impressive roster of participating investors, GEF has hosted world-renowned speakers, including Ray Dalio, Founder and CIO Mentor of Bridgewater Associates; Alan Greenspan, Chairman of US Federal Reserve (1987-2006); Eddie Yue, Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA); Michael Spence, Nobel Laureate Economist; Nouriel Roubini, Economist and Professor at NYU Stern; Cathie Wood, Founder, CEO and CIO of ARK Invest; David Rubenstein, Co-Founder & Co-Chairman of The Carlyle Group, and many others. The BEYOND Wealth Summit 2025 will provide a high-level platform for institutional investors, family offices, policymakers, and financial executives to discuss the evolving landscape of wealth and investment in Asia and beyond. The forum will feature expert panels, keynote speeches, and exclusive networking opportunities covering: The Future of Family Wealth Institutional Investing & Market Outlook Frontier Technology & Cutting-edge Innovation Global Asset Allocation Sustainable Impact and collaborative philanthropy Industry Spotlights Jason Ho, Co-founder of BEYOND Expo, stated, 'BEYOND Expo is a platform from Asia and for Asia — to create a global stage where the world can see the region's immense potential. Our partnership with AFLF has already strengthened the family office ecosystem, and now, with GEF joining us, we are elevating the dialogue on wealth and investment in Asia to an unprecedented level.' Dr. Gang Lu, Co-founder of BEYOND Expo, added, 'Wealth creation and preservation are evolving rapidly, and through this partnership, we are curating discussions that will define the next generation of investment strategies. BEYOND Expo continues to be the place where global leaders and decision-makers come together to drive impactful change.' Michael Zhu, Chair of the Board of Directors at the Asian Family Legacy Foundation, commented, 'Our collaboration with BEYOND Expo has catalyzed a powerful dialogue on wealth, legacy, and investment in Asia and BEYOND Wealth Summit has quickly established itself as a must-attend event for global leading families, and we are thrilled to build upon this success in 2025 with even deeper insights and broader participation.' Jim Aiello, Co-founder of GEF, remarked, 'At the Greenwich Economic Forum, we are fortune to have been able to bring together over the years many of world's top investors, managers, policymakers, economists and other thought leaders, and we are excited to continue expanding our community to Macao. The collaboration with BEYOND Expo and Asian Family Legacy Foundation this year in Macao is a wonderful moment, helping offer access to the region's most dynamic investment opportunities and a strategic gateway for global capital flows.' Last year, the BEYOND Wealth Summit brought together over 150 global family offices to explore global asset allocation, frontier tech investments, and multigenerational wealth through expert panels, keynote speeches, and interactive breakout sessions. With the continued collaboration of Asian Family Legacy Foundation and the addition of GEF, the 2025 edition is set to attract an even more prominent international audience. In addition, BEYOND Expo 2025 offers exclusive summits and events tailored for investors and GPs alike throughout the expo period, from May 21-24, including the Global Investment Summit, Investor Lounge, Gala Dinner, Charity Poker Night, and the new BEYOND Global Charity Golf Tournament, which combines high-level networking with meaningful cause. These exclusive events provide a platform for GPs and investors to engage with industry experts, network with peers, and explore new investment opportunities. To register for the BEYOND Wealth Summit 2025: View the full schedule of BEYOND Wealth Summit speakers and events, and to request an invitation, please visit: To register for the Investor Pass at BEYOND Expo 2025 – GPs and investors: Secure your Investor Pass now to take advantage of the early-bird offer. Don't miss this opportunity to connect and network with peers, LPs, and the broader tech and innovation community. Book your pass at The BEYOND International Technology Innovation Expo (BEYOND Expo) is Asia's leading annual technology event. Serving as a dynamic platform since 2021, BEYOND Expo not only showcases global technological innovations but also provides a unique opportunity to foster innovation upgrades across diverse industries and regions. BEYOND Expo has attracted participation from Asia's Fortune 500 companies, multinational corporations, unicorn companies, and emerging startups. Through a multifaceted approach involving expos, summits, and various activities, BEYOND Expo has successfully cultivated an innovative ecosystem, propelling collective development in the Asia-Pacific region and the global technology innovation industry. Established in Hong Kong, the Asian Family Legacy Foundation is focused on fostering a circle of trust for world's distinguished families. We facilitate meaningful dialogues to navigate the complexities of wealth and legacy, fostering impactful connections. Our mission is to deepen family bonds and instill a sense of shared legacy through giving back, with a commitment to integrity, responsibility, and innovation. We aim to blend tradition with modernity, creating a lasting family legacy that contributes to a rich cultural and societal future. About Greenwich Economic Forum
Forbes
01-05-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Market Sentiment Is Down. Is It Time To Buy Stocks?
NEW YORK - JULY 16: A trader rubs his eyes outside the New York Stock Exchange July 16, 2002 in ... More New York City. The Dow closed down in seven straight losing sessions, falling more than 900 points, despite some soothing words from Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan about the economy. Investor concerns over earnings and recent corporate accounting scandals contributed to eight weeks of loss. (Photo by) Investors have endured notable pain this year, with the S&P 500 suffering one of its fastest 10% corrections over the last 50 years, then nearly tipping into a bear market. This has thrust sentiment to a lowly place — one typically reserved for the depths of a bear market or a financial crisis. Interestingly though, sentiment hits these troughs when the S&P 500 was only down about 3% from its record highs. If we look at the AAII survey, the number of bullish respondents plunged below 20% on February 26th, while bearish responses rocketed above 60%. Not only were these readings considered to be in extreme territory, but going back to 2000, breaches of these levels have typically correlated with a notable low in stocks. Extreme sentiment readings have often been a contrarian indicator. Meaning extremely bullish readings have historically been associated with a short-term top in stocks, while extremely bearish readings have typically come into play near the lows of a selloff. In other words, late-February's sentiment readings may have seemed like a great time to buy, and historically, that's been true. This time though? Not so much. At its low in April, the S&P 500 was down almost 20% from when those sentiment readings first dipped into extreme territory. So that begs the question: Is sentiment still a contrarian indicator or is it becoming a leading indicator and preceding larger moves in the market? 25-year chart of AAII bullish sentiment readings. Today's investors aren't waiting to read the newspaper to find out what's happening in markets. Real-time alerts and social media have created a world where information moves at a blazing pace, and in an era where investors can get in and out of positions with a few swipes on their phone, it appears that their attitude towards stocks can change just as quickly, too. Whether this ends up hurting or helping investors will vary. However, it's hard to view today's investment landscape without noticing that sentiment moves nearly as fast as the markets do, while the change in stock prices can drive a bulk of these sentiment shifts. Even when sentiment does sour though, retail investors are often trying to find the positives. That's as they tend to view pullbacks opportunistically, stepping in to buy during market corrections. It helps that many are becoming privy to the idea that pullbacks tend to be good opportunities for long-term investors. That buy-the-dip mentality is true during minor corrections and it's true during steeper downturns as well. We know that from recent survey work, as well as interacting with clients. A lot has changed in the markets over the years. For instance, the introduction of electronic trading, the steady flow of 401K funds, and evolving leadership groups driving stocks to new record highs. One thing that hasn't changed much over the course of history? Human emotion. While artificial intelligence, algorithmic trading and other automation tools may help stifle some of the emotional influence in markets at times — and stoke the flames at others — new highs and breathtaking declines still get a rise out of investors' emotions. Those animal spirits — like fear and greed — are as prevalent now as they were 100 years ago. In the current environment though, we're not seeing sentiment act as a contrarian indicator, it's been a leading indicator. Extreme bearish readings came into play before markets took a significant turn for the worse, and through April, they have only improved modestly. In 2022, we saw some early signs of extreme bearish sentiment before stocks ultimately bottomed later in the year, too. This plays on the idea that investors are reacting more quickly to changing dynamics in the markets. However, consider that two things can be true at once, where sentiment becomes overly bearish early in the decline before markets eventually bottom on bearish sentiment. Regardless of whether sentiment becomes a leading indicator, one thing is unlikely to ever change: Markets won't bottom on bullish sentiment.
