Latest news with #AlbertaIndependence
CTV News
04-07-2025
- Politics
- CTV News
Alberta's new referendum rules officially take effect
The number of signatures needed for citizens to initiate a province-wide referendum is dropping. Hannah Lepine reports. Beginning Friday, the number of signatures needed for citizens to initiate a province-wide referendum is dropping, including on separation. The new threshold is 177,000 signatures collected within four months. People who want to stay in Canada and those who want Alberta to leave have already started applying for petitions. The Alberta Prosperity Project, a non-profit group promoting independence, plans to launch one under the new rules. At the same time, Thomas Lukaszuk, former progressive conservative deputy premier, is working to stop that effort. He argues separation would threaten the Canadian, as well as the Alberta economy, the treaty rights for First Nations, and would have many other negative consequences. On Monday, Elections Alberta approved Lukaszuk's application to undertake a petition for the province to declare its official policy is to remain within Canada. Since Lukaszuk applied before the new rules took effect, he'll need to collect 600,000 signatures, but he said he's confident that enough Albertans would sign their name. Smith's government introduced Bill 54 quickly after Carney's election win, but said it would have been proposed regardless of the outcome. Smith has said she wants Alberta to stay in Canada and is blaming federal policies for the separatist sentiment. Citizen initiative petitions can be found on the Elections Alberta website.
CBC
04-07-2025
- Business
- CBC
Alberta Prosperity Project releases fiscal plan, predicts surplus in billions within 1 year of separation
The Alberta Prosperity Project's new draft fiscal plan is projecting Alberta's economy could double within 20 years of separation. The Value of Freedom: A Draft Fully Costed Fiscal Plan for an Independent Alberta was released Thursday. It estimates a surplus in the billions within the first year of independence from Canada. "Alberta can literally become the most prosperous country in the world with the highest GDP per capita of any country in the world," said Jeff Rath, a co-founder of the separatist group, which announced in May that it would push the province to allow a separation referendum later this year. Some experts say Thursday's fiscal plan lacks clarity, and that despite the project's claims of making conservative estimates, the numbers could be an overestimation. "There's a lot of knowns and unknowns in the plan," said Charles St-Arnaud, chief economist at Alberta Central, a group representing credit unions in the province. "Especially when we look further down the road — it's not clear how it all holds together," he said. Speaking at a hotel in downtown Calgary, Rath said his group's research — which cites sources such as Statistics Canada, the Government of Alberta and public documents from provincial accounting firms — shows a surplus of between $23.6 and $45.5 billion per year. Once divorced from Canada, the province would also stop paying equalization payments, saving $44 to $47 billion, he said. St-Arnaud, however, said that all hinges on whether Alberta is able to cover the cost of services the federal government is already paying for. "There might be a saving there by not having to be a net contributor to equalization, for example, but the cost of setting up all those new programs, all those new institutions will be probably higher than what they expect," he said. Conservative estimates The plan estimates a 33 to 55 per cent tax cut for Albertans in the first year, as well as deregulation for businesses. It also outlines a doubling-down on oil and gas production, with production hitting 9.5 million barrels per day by 2045. Recent forecasting from S&P Global Commodity Insights anticipates annual production to reach 3.5 million barrels per day this year. St-Arnaud said this could be an overestimation, as the plan puts the cost per barrel at $85. Current prices are just under $70 a barrel. "There's a bit of careful consideration that needs to be taken there that maybe we're having a bit of an overestimation of what will be the long-term benefits because of those assumptions," he said. Rath said the plan uses "extremely conservative estimates" to make those assumptions, resulting in numbers reflecting the least positive outcome. University of Calgary political science professor Lisa Young notes that the plan does take into account the fluctuation in oil prices. "They acknowledge that demand for oil will peak relatively soon and then decline," she said, demonstrating they are thinking about potential swings in the economy. Still, Rath said they believe there is no sign demand for oil and gas will shift. "It's kind of like Al Gore saying the oceans are boiling," he said, referencing comments the former U.S. vice president made several years ago about climate change. "Every five years somebody says that the end of the earth is coming and nobody has yet to come up with an economic alternative to oil and gas." Young said the plan still lacks "robust" analysis from economists — and it leaves several questions about the nuts and bolts of separation unanswered. "Have they taken into account the frictional costs of separation?" she said. "Have they taken into account the many people who would pack their bags and leave the province and not want to be part of Alberta?" Pension payments and currency concerns Another area of uncertainty is the plan to shift to an Alberta Pension Plan — like the one the United Conservative government has proposed. Using data from a 2023 LifeWorks report, the plan says the Canadian Pension Plan owes Alberta $334 billion. With its conservative estimates, the plan assumes the province would receive $167 billion in 2026. Rath also said an independent Alberta would reduce pension payments but double pension payouts. But St-Arnaud said this is based on the assumption that Albertans are generally richer and can contribute more, but also that they are younger and will use less of the money. "But Albertans are gonna get older anyway," he said. "Yes, Alberta is still younger than the rest of Canada, but that gap is narrowing quite rapidly." He also said one key mistake the plan makes in its revenue estimates is combining returns from the Alberta Pension Plan with overall fiscal revenue. "That amount of revenues shouldn't be included in fiscal revenues because that's the way pension funds work, and that's the way the CPP works at a federal level," he said. "It's an independent entity." Rath said Alberta would also adopt the U.S. dollar, before eventually shifting to an Alberta-specific currency. Young said the potential effect this could have is not clear. "What would it mean to adopt the American dollar all of a sudden, right? What would that do to people's personal finances?" she said. Opposition petition 'a bad joke' At the same press conference Thursday, Rath addressed questions about a competing petition plan that would call for Alberta to stay in Canada. "It's a bad joke," Rath said. "It's not a petition that we're taking seriously." The Forever Canada petition, led by former Progressive Conservative Thomas Lukaszuk, is posing its own referendum question about staying in Alberta. Rath said this will not disrupt his group's plans to submit a question on separation because theirs is a constitutional challenge, not a policy one.
CBC
30-06-2025
- Politics
- CBC
New Alberta referendum rules looming as calls for separation met with opposition petition
As Canada prepares Tuesday to blow out 158 birthday candles, Alberta plans three days later to formalize rules making it easier to have an independence celebration of its own. Beginning Friday, Premier Danielle Smith's United Conservative government is officially lowering the required threshold for citizens to initiate a provincewide referendum, including on separation. Mitch Sylvestre, CEO of the Alberta Prosperity Project, a non-profit group touring Alberta promoting independence, said he plans to apply to Elections Alberta that same day to start a petition under the new rules. The group aims to gather 177,000 signatures within 120 days to put the question on a ballot to voters: Do you agree the province of Alberta shall become a sovereign country and cease to be a province of Canada? "I would not be surprised if that referendum was held right now that we could possibly even win it," Sylvestre told The Canadian Press. He said many Albertans are skeptical Prime Minister Mark Carney will be able to restore trust after federal policies for years siphoned Alberta's resource riches elsewhere. WATCH | Why Alberta separation is seen as a 'real possibility': Why Alberta separation is seen as a 'real possibility' 2 months ago Duration 2:49 While most Albertans don't want to separate, new polling suggests a majority in the province think it could happen. CBC Calgary's Rob Brown explains the Research Co. findings. The online survey was conducted with 1,201 voters between April 27 and 29, 2025. It carries a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. At the same time, Thomas Lukaszuk, a former Progressive Conservative deputy premier in Alberta, is working to thwart that separatist effort. Lukaszuk, now out of politics, argues that Alberta's rules do not allow for two competing petitions on the same issue. "There's only one petition at a time, so mine precludes theirs," he said. Lukaszuk has already applied to start a petition under the existing law, which would require 600,000 signatures. If his application to Elections Alberta is approved, he's confident that enough Albertans would sign their name to have the provincial government declare its official policy is to remain within Canada. Sylvestre said he will be submitting papers for the second time on Friday. He said he believes Lukaszuk's petition effort might delay the push for Alberta independence but believes it will fail to gather so many signatures within the old threshold of 90 days. Recent polls have suggested that support for separatism in Alberta hasn't reached majority territory. But, Sylvestre said, interest in holding an independence referendum is growing with each speaking event they organize. "The more people that hear what the message is, the more people that will be in favour," he said. WATCH | What could Alberta separation mean for First Nations in the province? What could Alberta separation mean for First Nations in the province? 1 month ago Duration 7:52 Chief political correspondent Rosemary Barton speaks with Chief Tony Alexis of the Alexis Nakota Sioux Nation about how Alberta separation threats violate First Nations treaty rights and how the government is not going far enough to protect those communities. Elections Alberta has said each application is evaluated in the order received but cannot comment on the applications submitted so far. Legal experts say a vote to sever ties with Canada would toss the country into uncharted waters, potentially prompting complex negotiations among governments and First Nations. Smith's government introduced the bill quickly after Carney's election victory earlier this year but said it would have been proposed regardless of the outcome. In defending her legislation, Smith said the growing number of Albertans unhappy with Confederation are right to be frustrated, and she wants to see more opportunities for direct democracy. She has long said she wants her province to be sovereign within a united Canada. That's a phrase Lukaszuk calls meaningless. "That's like me saying, 'I am single within the confines of my marriage,"' he said. Asked earlier this week what her government could do to quell separatist aspirations, Smith said it was Ottawa's responsibility to reverse policies she said stifle energy production and investment in Alberta. In recent months, she has called for Carney to abolish several federal policies and programs, including a proposed greenhouse gas emissions cap, net-zero electricity grid regulations and the West Coast tanker ban. "This is really in Ottawa's hands," Smith said Thursday. While Lukaszuk said Smith is entitled to negotiate with the federal government, she shouldn't use the threat of secession as leverage.
CNN
24-06-2025
- Politics
- CNN
In Alberta, a movement to secede from Canada just got a bit easier
Separatists in the Canadian province of Alberta are courting votes for a referendum that could start the process for the province to secede from the rest of the country. Here's a look into what's motivating the movement.
CNN
23-06-2025
- Politics
- CNN
Make Alberta Great Again: In this Canadian province, separatists see Trump as an ally
It's a Monday night in June and hundreds have braved the haze of Canadian wildfires to gather in a cavernous sports facility in the city of Red Deer, Alberta. An Alberta team, the Edmonton Oilers, are taking on the Florida Panthers in a National Hockey League finals game tonight. The atmosphere is heavy with anticipation. But these people aren't here for hockey. This is a rally for Alberta independence. It might be hard to believe, given Canadian sports fans' recent booing of 'The Star Spangled Banner,' but not all Canadians took offense to US President Donald Trump's questioning of their country's sovereignty. In oil-rich Alberta, where a movement for independence from Canada appears to be gathering steam, many see in Trump a powerful and important ally whose haranguing of their former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was as welcome as his calls to 'drill baby, drill.' Though some see US statehood as a step too far, many in the Red Deer crowd believe the US president – as a fellow pro-oil conservative – would recognize a breakaway Alberta should a vote on independence go their way. 'Donald Trump is not the savior of the world,' says Albert Talsma, a welding contractor from Bentley. 'But right now he's North America's best asset.' With their 'Make Alberta Great Again' hats, 'Alberta Republic' T-shirts and posters declaring 'Albertans for Alberta!' it's not hard to see parallels to the US president's MAGA movement and the forces that inspired it. Separatists here have long argued that Canada's federal system fails to represent their interests; that the federal government's efforts to stymie climate change are holding back Alberta's lucrative oil industry (the largest in Canada); that they pay more than they get back through federal taxation; that their conservative values are drowned out by the more liberal eastern provinces. 'Alberta hasn't been treated fairly since 1905, when we joined Confederation. They basically used the west as a colony, to take wealth from the west to support the east,' says Kate Graham, a singing grandmother from Calgary. She opens the rally with a rendition of Janis Joplin's 'Mercedez Benz,' the lyrics modified to promote independence. Like Janis, she sings it a cappella, before spending much of the rest of the event at a booth by the door, selling merch emblazoned with the slogan 'I AM ALBERTAN.' Similar disenchantment is voiced by a steady stream of Albertans, each venting against their mother country on a stage flanked by a large provincial flag strung across a soccer goal. 'They want to stifle our (oil) industry,' says Mitch Sylvestre, a businessman from Bonnyville and one of the rally's chief organizers, his hoarse voice echoing over the PA system. 'We have cancer. We have a problem,' says Sylvestre. 'We have it large.' In a strange twist, the push to get Alberta out of Canada has gained momentum just as much of the country has united in patriotism in the face of Trump's tariffs and threats of annexation. Soon after Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberals rode a wave of anti-Trump sentiment to win the 2025 federal election in April, the Alberta Legislature passed a law making it easier to organize a referendum on independence. Under the new law, petitions for a province-wide vote now require just 177,000 signatures – down from 600,000 previously – and those signatures can be gathered over a period of four months rather than three. The province is home to nearly 5 million people, according to Statistics Canada, representing more than a tenth of the population of the entire country. One of the most vocal advocates for a referendum is Jeffrey Rath, a lawyer and co-founder of the Alberta Prosperity Project (APP), which organized the Red Deer rally. Rath, well over six feet tall in a cowboy hat and boots, has a ranch just outside of Calgary. He raises race horses there and follows the sport closely, especially the Kentucky Derby – where this year, he notes with a grin, ''Sovereignty' beat 'Journalism.'' 'If you wanna know what's special about Alberta, just look around, right?' Rath says with a sweep of his hand. The view from the rise above Rath's horse pasture is superb: quaking aspen, white pine and green rolling hills. 'It's one of God's treasures on earth. And the people here are very distinct people that have a very distinct culture and that are interested in maintaining that culture.' In Rath's eyes, Trump's attitude toward Canada is an opportunity. His group is counting on US government support in the event of success at the ballot box. 'Trump's election has given us a lot of hope,' Rath says. 'If anybody is going to have the guts to recognize an independent Alberta, (it) would be the Trump administration.' Separatism is not new in Canada, but it's only had real political power in the predominantly Francophone province of Quebec, which has numerous pro-independence parties and voted in two referendums on independence in the past 50 years, rejecting it by a 60/40 margin in 1980 and by around one percentage point in 1995. In Alberta, enthusiasm for separation has waxed and waned for decades, fueled initially by 'Western alienation' – resentment felt in western Canada against a federal system dominated by the more populous eastern provinces. More recently, the movement has attracted Albertans who were angered by federally mandated lockdowns during the Covid pandemic. Among them was Rath, who has in the past faced controversy for suggesting government officials should face murder and negligent homicide charges over what he claims are the ill-effects of the Covid vaccine. A recent poll by the Angus Reid Institute found about a third of Albertans currently support independence, though that support does not break down equally throughout the population. Some of the loudest critics of the idea come from Alberta's indigenous communities, whose treaties with the Canadian crown are older than the province itself. Under pressure from that community, the government added a provision to the referendum bill that guarantees their treaty rights whatever the result. Another poll, by CNN's Canadian broadcast partner CBC, found that more than half of the governing United Conservative Party (UCP) would vote to separate from Canada if given the chance. It also found that, while the percentage of the population backing independence has remained static over the past few years, the share of people who 'strongly' back it has grown. 'We can't ignore the fact that a third or more of Albertans are fed up,' Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, the leader of the UCP, tells CNN. While Smith's party proposed the referendum bill, she says she is against separation herself, preferring to 'get Alberta to exert its sovereignty within a united Canada.' 'We have had, from time to time, these kinds of initiatives flare up,' says Smith. 'And they're almost always in response to a federal government that's out of control. But they have all subsided when the federal government got back in its own lane.' 'I think that it's a notice to Ottawa that they've got to take this seriously,' Smith adds. 'The question is, what can we do to address it?' One of the more explosive questions surrounding secession is whether an independent Alberta might join the United States. In February, a billboard appeared along the highway between Calgary and Edmonton, with text urging onlookers to tell Premier Smith that Alberta ought to 'Join the USA!' superimposed over a picture of her shaking hands with Trump. 'I don't think Albertans are very keen to trade a bad relationship with Ottawa with a bad relationship with Washington,' Smith says when asked about the possibility. In Red Deer, the crowd seems divided on the issue. Most who speak to CNN say they would rather see Alberta as a fully independent country. But others, like construction worker Stephen Large of Czar, Alberta, feel it would be good to have the might of the US on their side – particularly if negotiations fail in the event of a 'yes' vote for independence. 'The minute something happens here toward independence, our federal government is going to be furious,' says Large, who wears a red 'Make Alberta Great Again' cap. 'They will pull out all the stops, military and police and whatever they can find to lock us down, lock us in.' Large points to how former Prime Minister Trudeau briefly invoked the Emergencies Act when Canadian truckers blockaded downtown Ottawa to protest cross-border vaccine mandates in 2022. The statute, which had never been used before, allowed Canadian law enforcement to take extraordinary measures to restore public order – including freezing the bank accounts of certain protesters and banning public assembly in parts of Ottawa. The law also allows the government to deploy troops within Canada to enforce the law, though Trudeau did not invoke that part of the provision in 2022. 'We're gonna need some support from somewhere, and the only place on Earth that is worthy of their support is the United States military,' Large says. A woman sitting in front of Large overhears him and turns around, nodding in agreement. 'I'm with him,' she says, introducing herself as Evelyn Ranger of Red Deer. 'I'm not sure that Alberta or the western provinces, even together, can make it on their own. So, the States is still the better way to go, because you've got the military, you've got the trade and everything already set there.' For his part, Rath refuses to consider whether the federal government might invoke the Emergencies Act or use other measures to put down his movement if it were to unilaterally declare Alberta independent in the event of a 'yes' vote. 'We'll cross that bridge when we come to it, but we don't see that happening,' Rath says. Asked if he would be up for an interview at that point, he grins. 'Yeah,' Rath replies, before letting out a laugh. 'It might be from a jail cell.'
